International Fight Week has arrived in Las Vegas and will be capped off with Saturday’s UFC 317 show that features 12 fights at T-Mobile Arena.

In the main event, former featherweight champion Ilia Topuria and ex-lightweight kingpin Charles ‘Do Bronx’ Oliveira will square off for the 155-pound belt that was recently vacated by Islam Makhachev.

As of Thursday afternoon, most books had Topuria (16-0 MMA, 8-0 UFC) installed as a -500 ‘chalk’ with Oliveira at +350 underdog odds. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -130, ‘under’ +102 at FanDuel). The cheapest price available on Topuria was -425 at DraftKings.

By Friday morning, most spots had moved Topuria down into the -420 to -450 range, leaving Oliveira at +320 to +330 on the comeback.

The 28-year-old Topuria has only fought once at lightweight, beating Jai Herbert via second-round knockout to win a Performance of the Night bonus at UFC London in 2022.

Topuria has 14 finishes in his 16 career fights with eight submissions and six KOs. Josh Emmett and Youssef Zalal are the only opponents that have gone the distance with the Spaniard, with Emmett lasting five rounds at UFC Jacksonville in 2023 and Zalal going three rounds at UFC Abu Dhabi in 2020.

The win over Emmett catapulted Topuria into a title shot against Alexander Volkanovski, who had successfully defended his belt five times from 2020-23. But at UFC 298 on Feb. 17 of 2024, Topuria scored a second-round KO victory over Volkanovski to win the strap.

Topuria defended his belt with a third-round KO win over another former featherweight champ, Max ‘Blessed’ Holloway, at UFC 308 last October. He became the first fighter to beat Holloway by KO.

Tired of cutting the weight to get down to 145 pounds, Topuria decided to relinquish the belt earlier this year to pursue a fight against Makhachev. As we all know now, that matchup didn’t come to fruition (yet).

Instead, Oliveira (35-10-0-1 MMA, 23-10-0-1 UFC) has a chance to get the belt back for a second time. The 35-year-old Oliveira is off a unanimous-decision win over Michael Chandler in the UFC 309 co-main event this past November.

From 2018 through May of 2022, Oliveira ripped off 11 consecutive wins and won the belt vacated by Khabib Nurmagomedov with a second-round KO win over Chandler. The Brazilian then successfully defended the title with a third-round submission victory over Dustin Poirier.

Oliveira missed weight for his second title defense, but he beat Justin Gaethje nonetheless via first-round submission at UFC 274. With the belt vacant again due to the battle against the scales, Makhachev defeated Oliveira with a second-round sub (arm-triangle choke) at UFC 280.

Oliveira is 2-1 since then, losing a split decision to Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 300 between wins over Beneil Dariush (first-round TKO) and Chandler.

PREDICTION: Oliveira is already going to be a UFC Hall of Famer with his name all over the promotion’s record books. With a win here, however, he really elevates his name into the upper tier of the all-time greats that have graced the Octagon. Oliveira is already the UFC’s career leader in most Performance of the Night bonuses (13), most fight-night bonuses (20), most finishes (20) and most submissions (16). If he adds two-time lightweight champion and becomes the first fighter to defeat Topuria, he’d add sole possession of the second-most career wins (24) in UFC history to his resume.

However, I don’t see that happening. I wanted to back Topuria to win inside the distance, but the -275 price was too expensive for my taste. Therefore, I’m going to risk 1.5 units to win one unit on Topuria to win by KO/TKO at a -150 price (BetRivers). Also, I’ll place 0.5 units of risk on Topuria to win in Round 2 for a +390 payout that would net 1.95 units of profit. I’m also going to use Topuria as the final leg in a three-fight parlay, but I’ll provide those details below.

In the co-main event, Alexandre Pantoja (29-5 MMA, 13-3 UFC) will defend his flyweight championship against Kai Kara-France. As of Friday morning, Pantoja was a favorite in the -235 to -265 range, while Kara-France was a +195 to +215 underdog (DraftKings).

The total was 4.5 rounds (‘under’ -118, ‘over’ -108 at FanDuel).

The 35-year-old Pantoja is on a seven-fight winning streak and hasn’t tasted defeat since losing a UD to Askar Askarov on Fight Island in July of 2020. He is making his fourth title defense.

During Pantoja’s current surge, he’s garnered three POTN bonuses with submission victories and also participated in a Fight of the Night in his split-decision win over Brandon Moreno at UFC 290. He is off a second-round submission win over Kai Asakura at UFC 310 this past December.

The 32-year-old Kara-France (25-11-0-1 MMA, 8-4 UFC) had lost back-to-back fights before starching Steve Ercberg via first-round KO at UFC 305 last August. He’s 4-2 in his last six outings, though, and has 12 of his 25 career wins via KOs.

Kara-France has earned six career fight-night bonuses during his 12-fight tenure with the promotion.

Prediction: I’ll risk 0.5 units on the prop for Pantoja to win by submission for a +230 return (BetRivers) that’ll net 1.15 units of profit. 

**Other Picks**

-In a lightweight scrap, Renato Moicano (20-6-1 MMA, 12-6 UFC) will take on Dariush as a -115 to -125 favorite, with Dariush as an even-money underdog at most spots. Moicano had won four fights in a row with three finishes until Tsarukyan pulled out of his title fight with Makhachev due to an injury at UFC 311. Moicano accepted the title shot on 24 hours of notice but lost via first-round submission to Makhachev.

Dariush has lost back-to-back bouts by getting KO’d in the opening round vs. Oliveira and Tsarukyan. Both fighters are 36 years of age, but Moicano is 6-2 in his last eight Octagon appearances with both defeats coming against former 155-pound champions (Rafael Dos Anjos was the other L at UFC 272).

PREDICTION: Let’s risk 1.725 units to win 1.5 units on Moicano at a -115 price (Caesars). 

-In another lightweight contest, Terrance McKinney (16-7 MMA, 6-4 UFC) is going to face Viacheslav Borshchev (8-5 MMA, 4-4 UFC). McKinney owns 16 career finishes with 15 coming in the first round. He has eight career KOs and eight career submissions.

PREDICTION: Let’s risk one unit to win 1.4 units (+140 return at Betway) on the prop for McKinney to win in Round 1.

–Let’s risk one unit on a three-leg parlay that includes McKinney (-163 at Betway), Moicano (-115 at Caesars) and Topuria (-420 at Caesars). The payout at those prices is +273.48, so we’d net a profit of 2.74 units if we round up.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

–Jean Silva is the favorite over Diego Lopes in the UFC Noche headliner in San Antonio on Sept. 13.

–Here’s the respectful faceoff between Topuria and Oliveira at the UFC 317 press conference on Thursday afternoon.

-The women’s MMA GOAT Amanda Nunes was inducted into the UFC’s Hall of Fame (Modern Wing) on Thursday, but she wants her belt back in her return from retirement in early 2026 vs. current women’s bantamweight champion Kayla Harrison, who opened as the favorite in this matchup earlier this month. After opening Harrison as a -162 favorite, DraftKings has adjusted her to a -155 ‘chalk.’ Nunes is a +130 underdog.

–Here’s Pantoja and Kara-France looking into each other’s souls on Thursday.

–Moicano points out that he’s younger than Dariush by 15 days with plenty of F-bombs.

-Best of luck with your bets and enjoy the show!