
CWS @ BAL


Series Game 3 Matchup Details
Series Game 3
Todays Game is on Sunday, June 1st
01/06/25 13:35:00 PM EST First Pitch
Positive Match Player Stats for White Sox vs Orioles Series Game 3 Matchup Today
Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #6 stadium in the majors for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Coby Mayo hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest CF fences today.
Extreme groundball batters like Coby Mayo tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Adrian Houser.
The Chicago White Sox outfield defense projects as the weakest out of all the teams today.
Coby Mayo is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Chicago (#1-worst of all teams on the slate today).
Coby Mayo will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.
The #4 venue in the game for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heston Kjerstad in the 80th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.
Heston Kjerstad will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Adrian Houser in today’s matchup.
Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Heston Kjerstad will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #6 stadium in the league for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.299) may lead us to conclude that Heston Kjerstad has suffered from bad luck this year with his .241 actual wOBA.
Edgar Quero’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Edgar Quero has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.7-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 91.9-mph EV.
In the last 14 days, Edgar Quero’s 42.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.2%.
Jackson Holliday’s BABIP skill is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Jackson Holliday has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (66% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.
Batting from the opposite that Adrian Houser throws from, Jackson Holliday will have an advantage in today’s matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 77th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.
Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Jackson Holliday will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
Jackson Holliday has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 8.9% seasonal rate to 21.4% in the last two weeks.
Among all major league stadiums, Oriole Park at Camden Yards’s right field fences are the shallowest.
Josh Rojas will have the handedness advantage over Charlie Morton in today’s matchup.
In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Josh Rojas’s 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19%.
Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.296) provides evidence that Josh Rojas has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .278 actual wOBA.
Ramon Urias is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
Ramon Urias hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Ramon Urias will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats.
Ramon Urias’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls lately (31° in the past two weeks) is considerably higher than his 16.3° seasonal figure.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Benintendi in the 81st percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.
Andrew Benintendi is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.
Batting from the opposite that Charlie Morton throws from, Andrew Benintendi will have an advantage today.
This season, Andrew Benintendi has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 94.8 mph compared to last year’s 92.3 mph mark.
Andrew Benintendi’s launch angle this year (25.4°) is considerably higher than his 15.9° mark last year.
As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Ryan O’Hearn ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Ryan O’Hearn is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.
Ryan O’Hearn will hold the platoon advantage over Adrian Houser in today’s game.
Ryan O’Hearn will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which should boost all of his stats.
In notching a .412 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Ryan O’Hearn is positioned in the 98th percentile.
Ryan O’Hearn’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Jorge Mateo hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 83rd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Jorge Mateo will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats.
Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Dylan Carlson will hold that advantage today.
Dylan Carlson and his 18.9° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 89th percentile, among the highest in the majors since the start of last season.
It may be sensible to expect better numbers for the Chicago White Sox offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 7th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
Charlie Morton is an extreme flyball pitcher (33% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #4 HR venue among all major league parks in today’s game.
Charlie Morton’s 93.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1-mph drop off from last year’s 94.1-mph figure.
Charlie Morton’s curveball usage has dropped by 7.8% from last year to this one (42.4% to 34.6%) .
Compared to the average pitcher, Charlie Morton has been given more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an extra 3.7 adjusted pitches each start.
As it relates to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Charlie Morton in the 82nd percentile among all SPs in the game.
Luis Robert Jr.’s BABIP ability is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Luis Robert Jr. is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.
Luis Robert Jr.’s launch angle this year (18.5°) is significantly better than his 13.1° mark last season.
Luis Robert Jr.’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls recently (33.5° in the last 14 days) is quite a bit better than his 14.4° seasonal angle.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Robert Jr. in the 85th percentile when assessing his home run skill.
Despite posting a .260 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Luis Robert Jr. has had some very poor luck given the .058 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .318.
Mike Tauchman is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.
Hitting from the opposite that Charlie Morton throws from, Mike Tauchman will have the upper hand in today’s game.
Over the last 14 days, Mike Tauchman has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .417.
Mike Tauchman grades out in the 92nd percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (19.4% rate since the start of last season).
With a 1.38 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Mike Tauchman has shown good plate discipline, placing in the 95th percentile.
Given the 0.5 gap between Adrian Houser’s 5.86 K/9 and his 6.36 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in MLB since the start of last season when it comes to strikeouts and should positively regress in future games.
Compared to their .332 overall projected rate, the .320 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Baltimore Orioles projected batting order in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit weaker than usual.
Adrian Houser is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Oriole Park at Camden Yards — the #4 HR venue among all major league parks — in today’s game.
Joshua Palacios is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today’s game.
Hitting from the opposite that Charlie Morton throws from, Joshua Palacios will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.
Hitters such as Joshua Palacios with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Charlie Morton who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Over the last 14 days, Joshua Palacios has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 10% to 25%.
Joshua Palacios’s launch angle of late (13.6° over the past two weeks) is significantly better than his 7.3° seasonal angle.
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Miguel Vargas ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Miguel Vargas is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.
Miguel Vargas hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Miguel Vargas has made significant gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 7.4% seasonal rate to 18.2% in the last two weeks.
In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Miguel Vargas’s 27.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.5%.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.
Adley Rutschman is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.
Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Adley Rutschman will hold that advantage today.
Adley Rutschman has seen a big increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.5-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 89.8-mph average.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 18th-best batter in Major League Baseball.
Gunnar Henderson is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.
Hitting from the opposite that Adrian Houser throws from, Gunnar Henderson will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.
Gunnar Henderson will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.
Gunnar Henderson has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95.4-mph average to last season’s 92.7-mph figure.
Lenyn Sosa has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB’s shallowest RF fences today.
Lenyn Sosa has posted a .350 BABIP this year, placing in the 89th percentile.
Negative Match Player Stats with White Sox vs Orioles Series Game 3
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Coby Mayo in the 24th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.
Coby Mayo is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.
Since the start of last season, Coby Mayo has been pulled from the game early in 24% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.
Low humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-lowest humidity of all games today at 39%.
Adrian Houser will have the handedness advantage against Coby Mayo today.
Coby Mayo has put up a .213 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, grading out in the 5th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Heston Kjerstad is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.
Heston Kjerstad has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 3rd-deepest LF fences today.
Over the past two weeks, Heston Kjerstad’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.7% down to 0%.
Heston Kjerstad’s average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 89.5-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 83.9-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
Edgar Quero is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
The switch-hitting Edgar Quero will be at a disadvantage batting from his bad side (0) today against Charlie Morton,Edgar Quero has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Edgar Quero in today’s matchup.
As it relates to his home run ability, Edgar Quero ranks in the 20th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
In today’s game, Jackson Holliday is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.7% rate (92nd percentile).
Typically, hitters like Jackson Holliday who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Adrian Houser.
When it comes to his batting average, Jackson Holliday has been very fortunate this year. His .275 figure has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .257.
By putting up a 4.16 K/BB rate this year, Jackson Holliday has demonstrated bad plate discipline, ranking in the 16th percentile.
Over the past 14 days, Jackson Holliday’s 7.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.9%.
Josh Rojas is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup.
Josh Rojas has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 30% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.
Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Josh Rojas in today’s matchup.
In the last 14 days, Josh Rojas’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal EV of 87.2 mph to 79.7 mph.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Rojas in the 22nd percentile as it relates to his home run ability.
Batting from the same side that Adrian Houser throws from, Ramon Urias encounters a tough challenge today.
Ramon Urias has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 7.7% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last 14 days.
From last year to this one, Ramon Urias’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 15.6% to 9.2%.
Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.231) suggests that Ramon Urias has been very fortunate since the start of last season with his .263 actual batting average.
As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Ramon Urias has been lucky this year. His .315 mark has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .281.
Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Andrew Benintendi in today’s matchup.
As it relates to his home runs, Andrew Benintendi has been lucky since the start of last season. His 24.2 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 20.7.
Andrew Benintendi has been very bad at hitting the ball to all fields (a core skill for batting average), placing in the 12th percentile in THE BAT X’s Spray Score since the start of last season.
Grading out in the 5th percentile, Andrew Benintendi sits with a .245 BABIP since the start of last season.
As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Andrew Benintendi has been very fortunate this year. His .318 figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .299.
Ryan O’Hearn has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
Ryan O’Hearn has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 10.3% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
Ryan O’Hearn’s launch angle this season (8.3°) is quite a bit lower than his 11.8° angle last year.
Ryan O’Hearn’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased recently, falling from 17.5% on the season to 0% over the past 14 days.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Mateo in the 21st percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.
Jorge Mateo is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this game.
Adrian Houser will have the handedness advantage against Jorge Mateo today.
This season, there has been a decline in Jorge Mateo’s speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.9 ft/sec last year to 29.24 ft/sec currently.
Jorge Mateo has been cold recently, posting a .213 wOBA over the last week.
Dylan Carlson is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.
As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the plate, Dylan Carlson will be less advantaged while batting from his bad side against Adrian Houser in today’s game.
Dylan Carlson has notched a .256 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 17th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
By putting up a .196 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Dylan Carlson finds himself in the 16th percentile.
Utilizing Statcast data, Dylan Carlson is in the 19th percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 7.400.
The 2nd-weakest projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the Chicago White Sox.
Adam Hamari projects as a Pitchers Umpire and is anticipated to be calling pitches in today’s game.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Adley Rutschman (the Orioles’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) is considered to be a good pitch framer.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 2nd-worst ballpark in the league for walks.
Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the 3rd-deepest left field dimensions among all major league parks.
Charlie Morton will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luis Robert Jr. today.
Luis Robert Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.
Luis Robert Jr. has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 10.9% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past two weeks.
Mike Tauchman has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Mike Tauchman in today’s game.
Mike Tauchman’s quickness has decreased this season. His 27.18 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.65 ft/sec now.
Mike Tauchman has averaged 11.8 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, placing in the 21st percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Mike Tauchman does not make a lot of hard contact. If you were to look at the top 5% of his batted balls by exit velocity, their average (101.9 mph) rank him as one of baseball’s worst: in the 1st percentile since the start of last season.
As it relates to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Adrian Houser in the 7th percentile among all starting pitchers in baseball.
Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Adrian Houser is projected to throw 85 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 6th-least of the day.
The Baltimore Orioles have 6 bats in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Adrian Houser in this game.
Playing on the road generally lessens pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Adrian Houser in today’s matchup.
In his previous start, Adrian Houser wasn’t on when it came to striking batters out and was only able to post 2 Ks.
It may be smart to expect better numbers for the Baltimore Orioles offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.
Joshua Palacios has been pinch hit for 38% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.
Joshua Palacios has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Joshua Palacios in today’s matchup.
Over the past 14 days, Joshua Palacios’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal mark of 91.3 mph to 86.9 mph.
Batting from the same side that Charlie Morton throws from, Miguel Vargas will have a tough matchup today.
Typically, batters like Miguel Vargas who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Charlie Morton.
Miguel Vargas will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.
Miguel Vargas’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (15.9°) is quite a bit worse than his 20.1° figure last year.
The switch-hitting Adley Rutschman will be at a disadvantage batting from his weak side (0) today against Adrian Houser,Adley Rutschman has recorded a .228 BABIP this year, ranking in the 6th percentile.
There has been a significant decline in Adley Rutschman’s launch angle from last year’s 18.7° to 15.7° this year.
Adley Rutschman has notched a .321 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year, ranking in the 18th percentile.
Gunnar Henderson has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Gunnar Henderson’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.4% down to 0%.
Gunnar Henderson’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off of late, decreasing from 8.5% on the season to 0% over the last 14 days.
Lenyn Sosa is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.
Hitting from the same side that Charlie Morton throws from, Lenyn Sosa will have a tough matchup in today’s game.
Lenyn Sosa will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.
Lenyn Sosa has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 7.3% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past 14 days.
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