Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Twins vs Red Sox Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 91st percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.

Fenway Park ranks as the #3 field in MLB for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Considering Joe Ryan’s large platoon split, Wilyer Abreu will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.

Wilyer Abreu is likely to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins only has 1 same-handed RP.

Wilyer Abreu pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.6% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Fenway Park profiles as the #6 venue in the majors for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The switch-hitting Brooks Lee will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Brayan Bello… and even better, Bello has a large platoon split.

Brooks Lee pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Brooks Lee has made notable gains with his Barrel%, improving his 4.1% rate last year to 10.3% this year.

Brooks Lee has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 90.2-mph average to last season’s 85.8-mph EV.

Brooks Lee’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 15.6% to 25.6%.

The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams in action today.

Rafael Devers projects as the 20th-best hitter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

Rafael Devers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joe Ryan in today’s game… and moreover, Ryan has a large platoon split.

The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rafael Devers has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

Rafael Devers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 81st percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Trevor Story is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup.

Trevor Story hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

The Minnesota Twins infield defense projects as the weakest among all the teams on the slate today.

The #6 stadium in the league for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.

As it relates to his home run skill, Trevor Story ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Trevor Story will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Alex Bregman is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

Alex Bregman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Alex Bregman will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Alex Bregman has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 9.7% seasonal rate to 23.1% in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Carlos Correa is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

In the league, Fenway Park’s LF fences are the shallowest.

Carlos Correa has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97.8-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 89.7-mph mark.

Carlos Correa has been unlucky this year, putting up a .254 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .338 — a .084 difference.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ty France in the 84th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Ty France is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Ty France has made substantial gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 13.5% seasonal rate to 31.6% in the last 7 days.

Over the last 7 days, Ty France’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.3-mph over the course of the season to 103-mph recently.

Ty France’s launch angle in recent games (23.7° in the last week’s worth of games) is a considerable increase over his 7.9° seasonal angle.

Harrison Bader pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Harrison Bader has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 96.6-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal EV of 92.8-mph.

Byron Buxton projects as the 14th-best home run hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Byron Buxton is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.

Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Hitters such as Byron Buxton with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brayan Bello who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Byron Buxton has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 15.9% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Byron Buxton ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Jeffers in the 86th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

Ryan Jeffers has made significant gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 8.5% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the past week’s worth of games.

In the last 7 days, Ryan Jeffers’s 21.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.6%.

Grading out in the 80th percentile for power, Ryan Jeffers has averaged 24.1 HRs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 89th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest right field dimensions among all stadiums.

Considering Joe Ryan’s large platoon split, Triston Casas will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.

The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Triston Casas stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Triston Casas will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 79th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

When assessing his BABIP ability, Jarren Duran is projected as the 17th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jarren Duran is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

Jarren Duran will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joe Ryan in today’s matchup… and even more favorably, Ryan has a large platoon split.

Jarren Duran has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins only has 1 same-handed RP.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Jarren Duran ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s shallowest LF fences today.

Considering Brayan Bello’s large platoon split, Kody Clemens will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today’s game.

Kody Clemens pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.6% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

In notching a .326 Isolated Power (ISO) since the start of last season, Kody Clemens is ranked in the 90th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Larnach in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Trevor Larnach is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

Given Brayan Bello’s large platoon split, Trevor Larnach will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.

Over the past 14 days, Trevor Larnach’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.1-mph over the course of the season to 95.9-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Joe Ryan in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall pitching abilities.

Joe Ryan has recorded 17 outs per outing this year, ranking in the 80th percentile.

Considering that groundball pitchers have a significant advantage over groundball batters, Joe Ryan and his 41.5% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position today facing 2 opposing GB batters.

In his previous start, Joe Ryan was firing on all cylinders and conceded 1 ER.

When it comes to his strikeout talent, Joe Ryan projects as the 17th-best pitcher in MLB right now, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-most strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Boston Red Sox with a 24.9% underlying K%.

Over his last 3 GS, Joe Ryan has produced a significant increase in his fastball spin rate: from 2212 rpm over the entire season to 2262 rpm in recent games.

Considering Joe Ryan’s large platoon split, David Hamilton will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.

David Hamilton is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins has just 1 same-handed RP.

David Hamilton has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB’s shallowest LF fences today.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and David Hamilton will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.306) implies that David Hamilton has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .289 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Brayan Bello in the 77th percentile when it comes to his overall pitching abilities.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Carlos Narvaez (the Red Sox’s expected catcher today) profiles as an elite pitch framer.

Brayan Bello will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his metrics across the board.

In his last game started, Brayan Bello was on point and allowed 1 ER.

Rating highest in the game this year, Minnesota Twins batters as a unit have notched a 20.9° launch angle on their hardest-contacted balls (a reliable metric to study power ability).

Brayan Bello has utilized his sinker 11.2% less often this season (29.1%) than he did last season (40.3%).

Brayan Bello’s 95.6-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 83rd percentile out of all SPs.

When estimating his BABIP skill, Edouard Julien is projected as the 10th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Edouard Julien is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.

Edouard Julien will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello today… and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split.

Edouard Julien has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Edouard Julien has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.9-mph average to last season’s 93.7-mph mark.

Edouard Julien’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased lately, increasing from 17.2% on the season to 37.5% in the last week.

Negative Match Player Stats with Twins vs Red Sox

Among all parks, the 2nd-highest fences are at Fenway Park.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.

Extreme groundball hitters like Wilyer Abreu usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Joe Ryan.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Wilyer Abreu’s true offensive ability to be a .335, providing some evidence that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .070 difference between that figure and his actual .405 wOBA.

When assessing his home run talent, Brooks Lee ranks in the 23rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Brooks Lee is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

Brooks Lee will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brooks Lee in the 19th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

In notching a .240 BABIP since the start of last season, Brooks Lee grades out in the 19th percentile.

Considering Joe Ryan’s large platoon split, Trevor Story will be at a big disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in this game.

Trevor Story has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 11.5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past week.

Trevor Story’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 90.3-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 85.9-mph in the past 7 days.

Trevor Story’s launch angle in recent games (-2.8° in the last week) is quite a bit worse than his 12.9° seasonal angle.

Because of Joe Ryan’s large platoon split, Alex Bregman will be at a gigantic disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate today.

Typically, hitters like Alex Bregman who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Joe Ryan.

Alex Bregman has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .328 rate is considerably higher than his .235 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Alex Bregman has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .420 figure is a fair amount higher than his .322 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Brayan Bello will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Correa in today’s matchup… and it’s an over-sized mismatch considering Bello’s large platoon split.

Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Carlos Correa in today’s game.

Last season, Carlos Correa had a launch angle of 8.7° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this year he experienced a significant decline to just 5.6°.

Over the last two weeks, Carlos Correa’s 9.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.1%.

Brayan Bello will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ty France in today’s game… and it’s an even bigger mismatch considering Bello’s large platoon split.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ty France in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Harrison Bader in the 25th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Harrison Bader is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

Given Brayan Bello’s large platoon split, Harrison Bader will be at an enormous disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate today.

Harrison Bader will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Brayan Bello will have the handedness advantage over Byron Buxton in today’s game… and it’s a particular mismatch considering Bello’s large platoon split.

Byron Buxton will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

In terms of plate discipline, Byron Buxton’s skill is quite weak, posting a 5.93 K/BB rate since the start of last season while grading out in in the 3rd percentile.

Ryan Jeffers is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Brayan Bello will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Jeffers in today’s game… and it’s an over-sized mismatch considering Bello’s large platoon split.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ryan Jeffers today.

Ryan Jeffers’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased recently; his 92.7-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 90.5-mph in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Jeffers in the 14th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Triston Casas is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

Over the last week, Triston Casas’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.9% down to 0%.

Triston Casas’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 89-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 78.9-mph over the last 7 days.

In the past week, Triston Casas’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 17.2%.

Jarren Duran has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.1% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the last 14 days.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 11.3°, Jarren Duran has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-1°) in the past two weeks.

Jarren Duran’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (1.3°) is considerably lower than his 8.4° mark last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kody Clemens in the 3rd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Kody Clemens is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in today’s game.

When starting against a righty on the mound since the start of last season, Kody Clemens has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 14% of the time.

Kody Clemens will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Kody Clemens ranks in the 15th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Trevor Larnach will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Trevor Larnach’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 93.2-mph EV last year has fallen to 89.1-mph.

Trevor Larnach’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, falling from 19.4% to 7.4%.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Ryan Jeffers (the Twins’s expected catcher today) profiles as a weak pitch framer.

The #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.

Joe Ryan will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-worst park in the game for strikeouts.

Joe Ryan’s 92.2-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.8-mph decline from last season’s 94-mph figure.

Joe Ryan’s four-seam fastball usage has increased by 9.9% from last year to this one (48.4% to 58.3%) .

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects David Hamilton in the 15th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

David Hamilton is projected to bat 8th in the lineup today.

When starting against a righty hurler this year, David Hamilton has been pulled from the game early 23% of the time.

This season, there has been a decline in David Hamilton’s quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.35 ft/sec last year to 28 ft/sec currently.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects David Hamilton in the 18th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Grading out in the 13th percentile, Brayan Bello has posted a 1.84 K/BB rate since the start of last season.

Brayan Bello has shown poor control since the start of last season, compiling a 19th percentile walk rate of 9.3%.

19% of the time that Edouard Julien has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been pinch hit for.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Edouard Julien in today’s matchup.

There has been a significant decline in Edouard Julien’s launch angle from last year’s 11.7° to 6.2° this season.

Sporting a .275 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Edouard Julien grades out in the 11th percentile.

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