Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Twins vs Astros Series Game 3 Matchup Today

Minute Maid Park grades out as the #8 park in baseball for overall right-handed offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Brooks Lee pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 87th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Brooks Lee has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.2-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 88.7-mph figure.

Brooks Lee’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 15.6% to 18.8%.

The #10 stadium in the league for boosting home runs to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.

Projected catcher Yainer Diaz profiles as a weak pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The #10 stadium in baseball for boosting base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.

Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions among all stadiums.

With 8 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Brandon Walter encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.

Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Brandon Walter (48.9% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 FB hitters in Minnesota’s projected offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Minute Maid Park as the 6th-best venue in the league for strikeouts.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cam Smith as the 15th-best hitter in the majors when estimating his BABIP talent.

The Minnesota Twins infield defense profiles as the worst out of every team playing today.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Cam Smith will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Cam Smith has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.6-mph to 99.3-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

Cam Smith’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 53.7% on the season to 66.7% over the last 14 days.

In the last week, Cam Smith’s 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.4%.

When it comes to his home runs, Cam Smith has had some very poor luck this year. His 9.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been considerably lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 15.4.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 94th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Christian Walker is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

Christian Walker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.2% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Christian Walker has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 13.6% seasonal rate to 25% in the last 7 days.

Victor Caratini is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.

Minute Maid Park profiles as the #8 field in the game for overall left-handed offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Extreme flyball bats like Victor Caratini usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Simeon Woods Richard.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Victor Caratini will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Last year, Victor Caratini had an average launch angle of 7.5° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 13.1°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Minute Maid Park as the 10th-best venue in baseball for LHB home runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willi Castro in the 79th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Willi Castro pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Willi Castro’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 47.7% on the season to 61.9% in the past 14 days.

Ranking in the 86th percentile, Willi Castro sits with a .358 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

Grading out in the 85th percentile, Willi Castro has put up a .322 BABIP since the start of last season.

Posting a .468 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year, Willi Castro finds himself in the 80th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 79th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

Jose Altuve is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.

Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Jose Altuve will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 92nd percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Carlos Correa is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.

Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, Carlos Correa will have an edge today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 90th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

Over the past week, Carlos Correa’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.5% up to 14.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ty France in the 86th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Ty France is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, Ty France will have the upper hand today.

Over the last 14 days, Ty France’s 62.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48.1%.

When it comes to his home runs, Ty France has suffered from bad luck this year. His 9.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.2.

Mauricio Dubon will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Ranking in the 79th percentile, Mauricio Dubon sports a .265 batting average since the start of last season.

Harrison Bader will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Walter today.

Harrison Bader pulls many of his flyballs (37.8% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Harrison Bader has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 10.6% seasonal rate to 17.4% over the last two weeks.

Harrison Bader’s launch angle in recent games (37.5° in the last week’s worth of games) is considerably better than his 12.5° seasonal angle.

When assessing his home run skill, Ryan Jeffers ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ryan Jeffers is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, Ryan Jeffers will have an edge in today’s game.

Ryan Jeffers has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.9-mph to 95.4-mph over the past week.

In the past week’s worth of games, Ryan Jeffers’s 100% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 50.7%.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Jeremy Pena ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jeremy Pena is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.

Extreme groundball batters like Jeremy Pena are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Simeon Woods Richard.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 82nd percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jake Meyers will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Jake Meyers has made substantial gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 7% seasonal rate to 12.9% in the last two weeks.

Compared to last year, Jake Meyers has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 44.4% to 51.7% this season.

Over the last week, Jake Meyers’s 23.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.5%.

Jake Meyers has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 7.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a fair amount lower than his 12.7 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The Houston Astros have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games,When estimating his batting average ability, Yainer Diaz is projected as the 20th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Yainer Diaz is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Yainer Diaz will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Yainer Diaz has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.6-mph to 95.5-mph in the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Wallner in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Bats such as Matt Wallner with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brandon Walter who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Matt Wallner has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 20.3% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the last 14 days.

Matt Wallner has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.8-mph to 97.7-mph over the past 14 days.

In the last week’s worth of games, Matt Wallner’s 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Wallner as baseball’s 8th-best home run batter.

Negative Match Player Stats with Twins vs Astros Series Game 3

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brooks Lee in the 16th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

Brooks Lee is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game.

Among all major league stadiums, the 3rd-tallest fences are at Minute Maid Park.

Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.

As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the dish, Brooks Lee will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side against Brandon Walter in this game.

Playing on the road typically diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Brooks Lee today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brooks Lee in the 22nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Brandon Walter in the 80th percentile as it relates to his overall pitching talent level.

Home field advantage generally boosts pitcher metrics across the board, and Brandon Walter will hold that advantage today.

In his last start, Brandon Walter turned in a great performance and allowed 0 ER.

The Minnesota Twins jointly rank 30th- overall in MLB this year in regard to the maximum exit velocity of all of the balls their [HITTER}s have hit.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Walter to throw 81 pitches in this matchup (2nd-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

Cam Smith is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.

Simeon Woods Richard will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cam Smith in today’s game.

Cam Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Hitting from the same side that Simeon Woods Richard throws from, Christian Walker will have a disadvantage in today’s game.

Posting a .289 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Christian Walker grades out in the 24th percentile.

Christian Walker has shown weak plate discipline this year, checking in at the 14th percentile with a 4.35 K/BB rate.

Placing in the 18th percentile, Christian Walker has posted a .220 batting average this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 12th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Victor Caratini in the 20th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Victor Caratini hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Victor Caratini has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 6.2% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last 14 days.

Willi Castro is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game.

The switch-hitting Willi Castro will bat from his weak side (0) today against Brandon Walter,Willi Castro will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Willi Castro has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 8.6% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

Simeon Woods Richard will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Altuve today.

Jose Altuve has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 5.2% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past 14 days.

Over the last two weeks, Jose Altuve’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal EV of 90.3 mph to 86.8 mph.

Jose Altuve’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined lately, falling from 13.2% on the season to 6.3% over the past 7 days.

Carlos Correa will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Carlos Correa’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 90.9-mph seasonal average has lowered to 87.3-mph over the last 7 days.

Carlos Correa’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined of late, decreasing from 38.2% on the season to 27.3% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Carlos Correa has notched a .296 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, placing in the 25th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Ty France will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Ty France has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

In the past two weeks, Ty France’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal mark of 90.5 mph to 85.2 mph.

Ranking in the 16th percentile, Ty France has put up a .153 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year.

Ty France’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off in recent games, going from 15.4% on the season to 9.8% in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 6th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

Mauricio Dubon is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Simeon Woods Richard will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mauricio Dubon in today’s game.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Mauricio Dubon ranks in the 20th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Mauricio Dubon has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and will be challenged by MLB’s 9th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Harrison Bader is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this matchup.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Harrison Bader in today’s game.

From last season to this one, Harrison Bader’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 15.7% to 9.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Harrison Bader’s true offensive skill to be a .298, providing some evidence that he has been very fortunate this year given the .034 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .332 wOBA.

Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ryan Jeffers today.

In the past week, Ryan Jeffers’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.7% down to 0%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Jeffers in the 20th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Simeon Woods Richard will hold the platoon advantage over Jeremy Pena today.

Over the past 7 days, Jeremy Pena’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.7% down to 0%.

Jeremy Pena’s launch angle recently (2° over the past two weeks) is considerably worse than his 7.7° seasonal figure.

Jeremy Pena’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, going from 12.3% to 8.8%.

Jake Meyers is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.

Simeon Woods Richard will hold the platoon advantage against Jake Meyers today.

Jake Meyers hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Jake Meyers’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal mark of 91.8 mph to 87.2 mph.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Ryan Jeffers (the Twins’s expected catcher in today’s game) profiles as a weak pitch framer.

Simeon Woods Richardson has a reverse platoon split and will be disadvantaged squaring off against 8 same-handed batters in this outing.

Because flyball batters hold a sizeable advantage over groundball pitchers, Simeon Woods Richardson and his 37.6% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a difficult position today facing 3 opposing GB bats.

Playing on the road generally lowers pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Simeon Woods Richardson in today’s matchup.

Simeon Woods Richardson has used his four-seam fastball 7% more often this season (47.2%) than he did last season (40.2%).

Simeon Woods Richardson was on point in his previous outing and conceded 2 ER.

Simeon Woods Richardson has been unlucky this year, notching a 5.74 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.64 — a 1.1 difference.

Simeon Woods Richardson has recorded a .339 BABIP this year, indicating that he has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league on balls in play with better performance likely coming.

The maximum exit velocity of any player on the Houston Astros has been 113.9 mph this year, making them the #29 club in baseball by this metric.

Simeon Woods Richard will have the handedness advantage over Yainer Diaz in today’s matchup.

In today’s matchup, Yainer Diaz is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.2% rate (90th percentile).

In the last week, Yainer Diaz’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.2% down to 0%.

When it comes to plate discipline, Yainer Diaz’s ability is quite weak, sporting a 4.68 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 12th percentile.

Matt Wallner is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

Brandon Walter will hold the platoon advantage over Matt Wallner today.

Matt Wallner pulls many of his flyballs (35.4% — 90th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 9th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Matt Wallner in today’s game.

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