Tigers vs Red Sox match player stats | 2025 Series Game 3 Sunday, September 28th

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DET @ BOS

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Tigers @ Red Sox Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Teams : Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox
Series : Series Game 3
Date : Todays Game is on Sunday, September 28th
Time : 28/09/25 15:05:00 PM EST First Pitch

Positives for the Detroit Tigers Game Today

As it relates to his home run skill, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The #2 stadium in MLB for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects for the 3rd-best hitting conditions of all games on the slate.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for bats.

Tarik Skubal will have the handedness advantage over Wilyer Abreu in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 77th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

Ceddanne Rafaela hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Masataka Yoshida is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

The 2nd-shallowest right field fences among all major league parks are found in Fenway Park.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 81st percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Trevor Story is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Alex Bregman ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Alex Bregman is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.

The #2 park in baseball for boosting batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.

Among all parks, Fenway Park’s LF fences are the shallowest.

Chris Paddack will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Given the 0.75 deviation between Chris Paddack’s 6.27 K/9 and his 7.01 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year when it comes to strikeouts and figures to perform better in the future.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 76th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Tarik Skubal will hold the platoon advantage against Nathaniel Lowe today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 94th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Jarren Duran is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez as the 9th-best hitter in MLB as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Romy Gonzalez is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.

Carlos Narvaez has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Carlos Narvaez will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Negatives with the Boston Red Sox Game Today

Wilyer Abreu has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (66% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today’s game.

This year, Wilyer Abreu has been pinch hit for in 11% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound.

Fenway Park has the 2nd-tallest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.

Fenway Park’s altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which often leads to worse offense.

Wilyer Abreu has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 12.5% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last 7 days.

Ceddanne Rafaela is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Tarik Skubal throws from, Ceddanne Rafaela will have an edge in today’s matchup.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Ceddanne Rafaela’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.2% down to 2.5%.

Masataka Yoshida has been pulled from the game early 11% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.

Masataka Yoshida’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, falling from 15.5% to 6.9%.

Trevor Story will hold the platoon advantage against Tarik Skubal today.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 14.6°, Trevor Story has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-0.4°) over the last two weeks.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.310) provides evidence that Trevor Story has been lucky this year with his .323 actual wOBA.

Alex Bregman will hold the platoon advantage over Tarik Skubal in today’s game.

Alex Bregman has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 6.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last 14 days.

As it relates to his batting average, Alex Bregman has had some very good luck this year. His .273 mark has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .238.

With a 0.56 gap between Chris Paddack’s 5.27 ERA and his 4.71 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and figures to see better results the rest of the season.

Ranking 3rd-lowest in the game this year, Boston Red Sox batters collectively have put up a 11.9° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (an advanced standard to study power skills).

As it relates to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Chris Paddack in the 21st percentile among all starters in baseball.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Chris Paddack is projected to throw 73 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 6th-least on the slate.

Fenway Park grades out as the #29 ballpark in the game for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Nathaniel Lowe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today’s game.

Nathaniel Lowe has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 6.9% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last two weeks.

Nathaniel Lowe’s launch angle lately (3° over the last 7 days) is considerably worse than his 10.3° seasonal figure.

In the past week’s worth of games, Jarren Duran’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.4% down to 0%.

Jarren Duran has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91.9-mph dropping to 82.1-mph over the past 7 days.

Over the past 14 days, Jarren Duran’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (-0.1°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 5.5°.

Romy Gonzalez will hold the platoon advantage against Tarik Skubal in today’s game.

Over the past 7 days, Romy Gonzalez’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12.6%.

Romy Gonzalez’s 6.1° launch angle (a reliable metric to study a hitter’s ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most groundball-inducing in the majors: 4th percentile.

Carlos Narvaez is projected to bat 9th in the batting order today.

Hitting from the opposite that Tarik Skubal throws from, Carlos Narvaez will have an advantage today.

Carlos Narvaez has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .315 rate is inflated compared to his .286 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

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