Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Royals vs Astros Series Game 3 Matchup Today

David Rackley projects as a Pitchers Umpire and is scheduled to be umping today.

Minute Maid Park profiles as the #6 park in the game for strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.

Considering that groundball batters face a disadvantage against groundball pitchers, Colton Gordon (37.2% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 2 GB hitters in the opposing team’s projected batting order.

Home field advantage generally boosts pitcher stats in all categories, and Colton Gordon will hold that advantage in today’s game.

It may be sensible to expect better numbers for the Kansas City Royals offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 8th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

The #6 park in baseball for boosting walks, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.

In MLB, Minute Maid Park’s left field fences are the shallowest.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zachary Dezenzo in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

The #9 ballpark in MLB for boosting home runs to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.

Zachary Dezenzo will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Over the last week, Zachary Dezenzo’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 17.1% up to 25%.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Cam Smith will hold that advantage in today’s game.

In the past two weeks, Cam Smith’s 27.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cam Smith in the 94th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Cam Smith’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, going from 48.3% on the season to 72.7% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 91st percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

Christian Walker is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.

Christian Walker pulls many of his flyballs (34.2% — 83rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage in today’s game.

In the past week, Christian Walker’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.4-mph over the course of the season to 94.7-mph recently.

The #9 stadium in the game for boosting home runs to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.

Extreme flyball bats like Victor Caratini tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Michael Lorenzen.

Victor Caratini will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Over the past two weeks, Victor Caratini has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 26.7° compared to his seasonal mark of 12.6°.

Victor Caratini’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 15.4% to 21.4%.

Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Michael Lorenzen (34.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 3 GB hitters in Houston’s projected offense.

Playing on the road generally diminishes pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Michael Lorenzen today.

Tallying 93.2 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Michael Lorenzen places him the 77th percentile.

Michael Lorenzen was on point in his previous outing and put up 7 strikeouts.

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (45.8% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

Isaac Paredes will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

Isaac Paredes’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls lately (22.3° in the past 14 days) is quite a bit higher than his 16.5° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isaac Paredes in the 78th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

Jose Altuve is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.

Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 80th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

When assessing his home run skill, Salvador Perez ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Salvador Perez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today’s game.

Salvador Perez will have the handedness advantage against Colton Gordon in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 78th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Salvador Perez pulls many of his flyballs (36.4% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Mark Canha is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

Batting from the opposite that Colton Gordon throws from, Mark Canha will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Mark Canha’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 41.4% to 56.3%.

Hunter Renfroe will hold the platoon advantage against Colton Gordon in today’s game.

Hunter Renfroe pulls many of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Hunter Renfroe has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 94.6-mph average to last year’s 92.1-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Hunter Renfroe’s true offensive talent to be a .293, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .094 deviation between that figure and his actual .199 wOBA.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Jonathan India ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jonathan India is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Colton Gordon throws from, Jonathan India will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Jonathan India pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.2% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 75th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Jeremy Pena is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Extreme groundball hitters like Jeremy Pena generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Michael Lorenzen.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 75th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Jake Meyers will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Over the last week, Jake Meyers’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.7-mph over the course of the season to 96.7-mph lately.

When it comes to his batting average, Jake Meyers has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .235 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .262.

Jake Meyers’s launch angle in recent games (19.6° in the last two weeks) is quite a bit higher than his 11° seasonal figure.

Hitting from the opposite that Colton Gordon throws from, Freddy Fermin will have an advantage in today’s game.

Freddy Fermin’s launch angle lately (28.3° over the last week) is a considerable increase over his 13.4° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bobby Witt Jr. as the 4th-best batter in Major League Baseball when assessing his batting average talent.

Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.

Batting from the opposite that Colton Gordon throws from, Bobby Witt Jr. will have an edge today.

Bobby Witt Jr. projects as the 7th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Over the last 7 days, Bobby Witt Jr.’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.3% up to 17.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Maikel Garcia in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

Maikel Garcia is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Maikel Garcia will hold the platoon advantage against Colton Gordon today.

Extreme groundball hitters like Maikel Garcia tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Colton Gordon.

Vinnie Pasquantino has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph to 96.1-mph over the past week.

There has been a significant improvement in Vinnie Pasquantino’s launch angle from last year’s 14.4° to 18° this year.

Vinnie Pasquantino has been unlucky this year, posting a .275 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .328 — a .053 disparity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vinnie Pasquantino in the 85th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 97th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

Yainer Diaz is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Yainer Diaz ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Extreme flyball hitters like Yainer Diaz usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Michael Lorenzen.

Negative Match Player Stats with Royals vs Astros Series Game 3

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Colton Gordon is projected to throw 82 pitches in today’s matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 4th-least of all pitchers today.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Kansas City Royals with a 19.6% underlying K%.

As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.

The Kansas City Royals have 7 hitters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over Colton Gordon in this matchup.

The league’s 3rd-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at Minute Maid Park.

The Kansas City Royals as a unit place 28th- overall in the majors this year as far as the maximum exit velocity of all of the baseballs their [HITTER}s have hit.

Zachary Dezenzo is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

Michael Lorenzen will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zachary Dezenzo in today’s matchup.

Zachary Dezenzo has had some very good luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .248 mark is considerably higher than his .228 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The #10 venue in the league for suppressing base hits to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.

Cam Smith is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this game.

Michael Lorenzen will have the handedness advantage against Cam Smith in today’s game.

Cam Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 9th-deepest CF fences today.

Michael Lorenzen will hold the platoon advantage against Christian Walker today.

In the last week, Christian Walker’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10% down to 0%.

Using Statcast data, Christian Walker ranks in the 21st percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .224.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 12th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Sporting a 3.85 K/BB rate this year, Christian Walker has displayed bad plate discipline, placing in the 24th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Victor Caratini in the 24th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

Victor Caratini is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.

Victor Caratini hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Victor Caratini has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.1-mph dropping to 84.5-mph over the last 7 days.

Minute Maid Park projects as the #21 venue in the game for left-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Michael Lorenzen has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 7.7% more often this season (59.4%) than he did last year (51.7%).

Houston’s 88.1-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in baseball: #30 overall.

Given the 0.53 discrepancy between Michael Lorenzen’s 7.94 K/9 and his 7.41 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this year as it relates to strikeouts and should see negative regression in future games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isaac Paredes in the 3rd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

Batting from the same side that Michael Lorenzen throws from, Isaac Paredes will not have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Extreme groundball batters like Isaac Paredes tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Michael Lorenzen.

Isaac Paredes has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.7-mph dropping to 81.4-mph in the past 14 days.

Hitting from the same side that Michael Lorenzen throws from, Jose Altuve will not have the upper hand today.

Jose Altuve has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 5.2% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last two weeks.

Jose Altuve’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off recently; his 91.3-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 79.3-mph in the past 14 days.

Extreme flyball hitters like Salvador Perez tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Colton Gordon.

Salvador Perez will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

Salvador Perez’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 94.6-mph average last season has lowered to 90.4-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mark Canha in the 21st percentile when estimating his home run skill.

When starting against a left-handed pitcher since the start of last season, Mark Canha has been pinch hit for 11% of the time.

Mark Canha will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.224) may lead us to conclude that Mark Canha has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season with his .243 actual batting average.

Mark Canha has averaged 7.2 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, grading out in the 8th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Hunter Renfroe is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today.

17% of the time that Hunter Renfroe has started against a southpaw since the start of last season, he has been pinch hit for.

Hunter Renfroe will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Renfroe in the 2nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Jonathan India will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

In terms of power, Jonathan India has performed in the 8th percentile, having averaged 2.1 HRs per 600 plate appearances this year.

Michael Lorenzen will hold the platoon advantage against Jeremy Pena in today’s matchup.

Jeremy Pena ranks in the 12th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (10.3% rate this year).

Jake Meyers is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today’s game.

Hitting from the same side that Michael Lorenzen throws from, Jake Meyers will have a tough challenge today.

Jake Meyers hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Freddy Fermin in the 23rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Freddy Fermin is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.

Freddy Fermin hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Bobby Witt Jr. has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and will be challenged by the game’s 9th-deepest RF fences today.

Typically, batters like Bobby Witt Jr. who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Colton Gordon.

Bobby Witt Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

17% of the time that Maikel Garcia has started against a lefty hurler since the start of last season, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

Maikel Garcia has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 9th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically lessens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Maikel Garcia today.

When estimating his home run talent, Maikel Garcia ranks in the 16th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vinnie Pasquantino in the 9th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

Colton Gordon will hold the platoon advantage against Vinnie Pasquantino in today’s matchup.

Vinnie Pasquantino pulls many of his flyballs (37.3% — 95th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 9th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Michael Lorenzen will have the handedness advantage over Yainer Diaz in today’s game.

Yainer Diaz has displayed bad plate discipline since the start of last season, grading out in the 8th percentile with a 4.82 K/BB rate.

In the last two weeks, Yainer Diaz’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (5.7°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 12.8°.

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