Rockies @ Padres Series Game 4 2025 WorldSeries Matchup Details

Positives for the Colorado Rockies World Series Game 4 Game Today

When it comes to his home run skill, Mickey Moniak ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Mickey Moniak is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.

In MLB, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.

Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Mickey Moniak will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

In the last 14 days, Mickey Moniak has posted a 32.2° launch angle, lifting the ball well and indicating strong home run potential.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 9th-best batter in the game.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Freeland throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. will have an edge in today’s game.

Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Fernando Tatis Jr. will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Miguel Andujar’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Miguel Andujar is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Freeland throws from, Miguel Andujar will have an advantage in today’s game.

Miguel Andujar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Miguel Andujar will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edouard Julien as the 15th-best batter in the majors as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Edouard Julien is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all stadiums.

Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Edouard Julien will have an edge in today’s game.

As it relates to his home run skill, Hunter Goodman ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hunter Goodman is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

Hunter Goodman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (37.9% — 76th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Hunter Goodman’s launch angle this year (25.7°) is a considerable increase over his 17.4° figure last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 97th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Freeland throws from, Xander Bogaerts will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Xander Bogaerts hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.350) implies that Edouard Julien has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .289 actual wOBA.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jake Cronenworth is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies has just 1 same-handed RP.

Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Jake Cronenworth will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ramon Laureano in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Ramon Laureano is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Ramon Laureano will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Freeland in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Manny Machado ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Manny Machado is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.

Batting from the opposite that Kyle Freeland throws from, Manny Machado will have the upper hand today.

Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

With a .343 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Mickey Moniak has performed in the 79th percentile for hitting ability.

Mickey Moniak’s 13.5% Barrel% (a reliable standard to evaluate power) grades out in the 86th percentile since the start of last season.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Ramon Laureano will hold that advantage today.

Troy Johnston is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Troy Johnston will have an edge today.

Troy Johnston hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

In the last week’s worth of games, Troy Johnston’s swing has been well optimized for home runs, notching a 27.8% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Karros in the 93rd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Kyle Karros hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (37.9% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Kyle Karros has exhibited some good exit velocity indicators lately, averaging 99.9-mph on his flyballs in the last two weeks.

Kyle Karros has been honed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs of late, angling balls between 23° and 34° 40% of the time in the past week.

Jake Cronenworth has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last year’s 28.1 ft/sec to 28.98 ft/sec now (according to Statcast’s Sprint Speed metric).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Nick Pivetta in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall pitching talent level.

Tallying 92.8 adjusted pitches per GS since the start of last season on average, Nick Pivetta falls in the 82nd percentile.

The weakest projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Colorado Rockies.

Vic Carapazza projects as a Pitchers Umpire and is scheduled to be in charge of the strike zone in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Petco Park as the 6th-worst park in MLB for batting average.

The San Diego Padres have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season,With 8 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Kyle Freeland encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.

Kyle Freeland will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Edouard Julien has been honed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits in recent games, lifting balls between -4° and 26° 58.8% of the time in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Ezequiel Tovar is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.

Ezequiel Tovar has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.6-mph average to last season’s 89.5-mph average.

Ezequiel Tovar has had some very poor luck with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .301 rate is a good deal lower than his .320 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Petco Park grades out as the #5 stadium in baseball for strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Given the 0.9 discrepancy between Kyle Freeland’s 6.91 K/9 and his 7.81 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors since the start of last season in terms of strikeouts and should see positive regression in future games.

Manny Machado will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Tovar in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Compared to last year, Ezequiel Tovar has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 50% to 55.6% this season.

Troy Johnston has put up a .338 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 84th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ty France in the 85th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

Ty France will have the handedness advantage against Kyle Freeland in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Ty France will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Ty France has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .298 figure is a good deal lower than his .338 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When it comes to his strikeout ability, Nick Pivetta projects as the 18th-best pitcher in baseball currently, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The Colorado Rockies have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Edouard Julien, Hunter Goodman, Jordan Beck).

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Xander Bogaerts ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Xander Bogaerts will hold that advantage today.

Negatives with the San Diego Padres World Series Game 4 Game Today

27% of the time that Mickey Moniak has started against a northpaw this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

Petco Park’s altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to lower offensive output.

Mickey Moniak pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 90th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Extreme flyball hitters like Mickey Moniak usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.

Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Mickey Moniak today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Petco Park as the 5th-worst ballpark in baseball for righty batting average.

Fernando Tatis Jr.’s launch angle this season (3.7°) is considerably lower than his 9.6° angle last season.

Over the past two weeks, Miguel Andujar has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

Over the past 7 days, Miguel Andujar’s swing has not been well optimized for home runs, hitting a mere 0% of his balls with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.286) may lead us to conclude that Miguel Andujar has been lucky since the start of last season with his .351 actual wOBA.

45% of the time that Edouard Julien has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

The #4 ballpark in the majors for suppressing offensive stats to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Edouard Julien today.

Edouard Julien has been cold lately, posting a 0% Barrel% (a reliable stat to study power) in the last week.

Hitting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Hunter Goodman faces a tough challenge today.

Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Hunter Goodman today.

Hunter Goodman has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 12.6% rate last season has fallen off to 3.6% this season.

From last season to this one, Hunter Goodman’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 95.2 mph to 92.3 mph.

The #4 field in the game for suppressing offensive stats to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.

Edouard Julien has struggled to lift the ball recently, posting a 3.2° launch angle in the past 14 days.

In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Edouard Julien ranks in just the 10th percentile with a 5.5° launch angle, which is one of the most groundball-inducing angles in MLB.

Jake Cronenworth is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

Kyle Freeland will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jake Cronenworth today.

From last year to this one, Jake Cronenworth’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 15% to 5.7%.

Jake Cronenworth has not been honed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs in recent games, striking balls between 23° and 34° just 6.7% of the time over the past two weeks.

Ramon Laureano’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 95.1-mph average last year has dropped off to 92.8-mph.

In the last week, Ramon Laureano’s swing has not been well optimized for home runs, hitting a mere 5.6% of his balls with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.

Manny Machado has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 12.9% rate last season has decreased to 3.7% this year.

Manny Machado’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 92.9-mph mark last season has dropped off to 86.5-mph.

There has been a significant decline in Manny Machado’s launch angle from last year’s 14.4° to 3.1° this year.

The #5 park in the game for suppressing batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.

Troy Johnston has been pinch hit for 20% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.

Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Troy Johnston in today’s game.

Over the last week, Troy Johnston has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to evaluate power).

Utilizing Statcast metrics, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 18th percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 11.200.

When it comes to his home run skill, Miguel Andujar ranks in the 25th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Kyle Karros is projected to hit 8th in the lineup today.

Batting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Kyle Karros will not have the upper hand today.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Kyle Karros in today’s game.

Checking in at the 19th percentile, the hardest ball Troy Johnston has made contact with since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 106.3 mph — an advanced indication of underlying power ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Karros in the 17th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

Nick Pivetta allowed a staggering 6 earned runs in his last GS.

Nick Pivetta’s four-seam fastball rate has risen by 8.6% from last year to this one (46.7% to 55.3%) .

Nick Pivetta has been one of the luckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball on balls in play since the start of last season with a .227 BABIP and should see that luck normalize going forward.

Over his last 3 games started, Kyle Freeland has put up a stellar ERA of 2.30.

Kyle Freeland’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (71.2% compared to 60.3% last season) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

Kyle Freeland has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his ERA since the start of last season; his 4.74 rate is significantly inflated relative to his 4.22 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

Nick Pivetta will hold the platoon advantage against Ezequiel Tovar today.

Extreme flyball bats like Ezequiel Tovar generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Ezequiel Tovar in today’s game.

In the past 7 days, Ezequiel Tovar’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal average of 92.9 mph to 88.9 mph.

Ezequiel Tovar’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, decreasing from 16.9% to 13.9%.

In his last game started, Kyle Freeland struggled when it came to striking batters out and only managed to post 2 Ks.

Kyle Freeland’s 91.1-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 14th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

Checking in at the 21st percentile, Kyle Freeland has notched a 17.5% Strikeout% since the start of last season.

Ty France is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.

Ty France has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and will be challenged by baseball’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Ty France is not very quick, placing in the 6th percentile in Sprint Speed at 25.06 ft/sec since the start of last season.

Xander Bogaerts is in the 21st percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (13.6% rate since the start of last season).

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