Todays Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Cincinnati at Tampa Bay Series Game 3 Matchup Today

Jeimer Candelario is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.

Jeimer Candelario pulls many of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Grading out in the 82nd percentile, Jeimer Candelario sports a .303 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year.

In the majors, Tropicana Field’s right field fences are the 5th-shallowest.

Out of all the teams playing today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.

Taylor Walls will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

In the past week, Jeimer Candelario’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.8% up to 13.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 10th-best hitter in the majors as it relates to his batting average skill.

Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.

Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Extreme flyball hitters like Yandy Diaz tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Greene.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Slater as the 7th-best hitter in the majors when estimating his BABIP talent.

Austin Slater will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Alexander in today’s matchup.

Austin Slater has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Bats such as Austin Slater with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tyler Alexander who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

Austin Slater’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 45.2% to 55.4%.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Spencer Steer ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Spencer Steer is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Alexander throws from, Spencer Steer will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.8% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

In the last week’s worth of games, Spencer Steer’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.9-mph over the course of the season to 103-mph of late.

Ben Rortvedt will hold the platoon advantage over Hunter Greene in today’s matchup.

Ben Rortvedt will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Ben Rortvedt has recorded a .358 BABIP this year, placing in the 91st percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Isaac Paredes ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.

Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (45.5% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage today.

Compared to his seasonal average of 23.9°, Isaac Paredes has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 30.6° angle in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Lowe in the 91st percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Josh Lowe is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today’s game.

Josh Lowe will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Greene in today’s game.

Josh Lowe has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

Noelvi Marte will hold the platoon advantage against Tyler Alexander today.

Noelvi Marte has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

In the past week’s worth of games, Noelvi Marte’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 87.9-mph over the course of the season to 94.9-mph recently.

In the past 7 days, Noelvi Marte’s 21.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 12.5%.

Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Noelvi Marte has hit reached a maximum exit velocity of 115.6 mph (an advanced standard to evaluate power), checking in at the 95th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 86th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Tyler Stephenson is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Alexander throws from, Tyler Stephenson will have an advantage today.

Tyler Stephenson has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Tyler Stephenson has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.6-mph to 95.3-mph over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Jonathan India is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.

Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Alexander throws from, Jonathan India will have an advantage in today’s game.

Jonathan India pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.4% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

Using Statcast data, Jonathan India is in the 87th percentile for offensive skills via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .349.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Yandy Diaz ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Yandy Diaz will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the best batter in baseball when assessing his BABIP skill.

Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.

Elly De La Cruz has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 13.2% seasonal rate to 18.2% over the past 14 days.

Elly De La Cruz has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.2-mph to 95.6-mph in the past 7 days.

Over the past 7 days, Elly De La Cruz’s 69.2% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.9%.

Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Alexander throws from, Santiago Espinal will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

Santiago Espinal has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.

Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage over Hunter Greene in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Despite posting a .239 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Taylor Walls has suffered from bad luck given the .042 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .281.

Richie Palacios is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.

Richie Palacios will have the handedness advantage against Hunter Greene in today’s matchup.

Richie Palacios pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

Richie Palacios will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

When estimating his home run skill, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Brandon Lowe has made substantial strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 15.6% seasonal rate to 23.8% in the past 14 days.

Playing on the road typically weakens pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Hunter Greene today.

Hunter Greene’s slider utilization has fallen by 5.9% from last season to this one (40.5% to 34.6%) .

Hunter Greene has posted a .245 BABIP this year, a sign that he has been one of the luckiest hurlers in the majors on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.

Josh Lowe will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Josh Lowe has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph to 92.9-mph in the last two weeks.

Richie Palacios has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.8-mph to 92.9-mph in the past 14 days.

Despite posting a .221 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Noelvi Marte has had bad variance on his side given the .069 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .290.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Hunter Greene is projected to throw 100 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the most of all pitchers on the slate today.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Austin Slater ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Austin Slater has had bad variance on his side this year. His .255 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .302.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Santiago Espinal in the 80th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.250) provides evidence that Santiago Espinal has had some very poor luck this year with his .219 actual batting average.

Hunter Greene projects as the 14th-best starter in MLB currently when it comes to his strikeout talent, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Tropicana Field ranks as the #4 venue in MLB for strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Over the past two weeks, Elly De La Cruz’s 22.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.2%.

Sunday Series Game 3 player match stat slumps with Reds vs Rays Matchup

Tropicana Field grades out as the #27 field in the majors for righty base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The Tropicana Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -10° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.

Jeimer Candelario will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

In the past week, Jeimer Candelario’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal average of 91.5 mph to 85.8 mph.

In the past 7 days, Jeimer Candelario’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 17.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Walls in the 6th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Taylor Walls is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today.

Tropicana Field ranks as the #27 stadium in MLB for LHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the dish, Taylor Walls will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side against Hunter Greene today.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (21.7) suggests that Jeimer Candelario has been very fortunate this year with his 25.6 actual HR/600.

Batting from the same side that Hunter Greene throws from, Yandy Diaz will have a disadvantage today.

Last season, Yandy Diaz had a launch angle of 4.9° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this year he experienced a significant decline to just -0.5°.

This season, there has been a decline in Yandy Diaz’s quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.61 ft/sec last year to 25.54 ft/sec currently.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Taylor Walls ranks in the 22nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Over the past week, Taylor Walls’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal mark of 89.3 mph to 83.3 mph.

Austin Slater is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Austin Slater today.

Austin Slater has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 11.9% rate last year has fallen off to 4.1% this season.

Extreme groundball batters like Spencer Steer tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Tyler Alexander.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Spencer Steer in today’s matchup.

Over the past two weeks, Spencer Steer’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (5.4°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 12.1°.

This year, the hardest ball Spencer Steer has connected with reached a maximum exit velocity of 108 mph (a reliable metric to evaluate power), placing in the 16th percentile.

Ben Rortvedt’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 9th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ben Rortvedt is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this game.

Ben Rortvedt’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 87.8-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 83.1-mph over the past two weeks.

Hitting from the same side that Hunter Greene throws from, Isaac Paredes will not have the upper hand today.

Extreme groundball bats like Isaac Paredes generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Greene.

Isaac Paredes has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 5.6% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last two weeks.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.316) implies that Isaac Paredes has been lucky this year with his .346 actual wOBA.

Josh Lowe has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 12.3% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last 14 days.

Josh Lowe’s launch angle of late (0.6° in the last two weeks) is significantly lower than his 14.7° seasonal figure.

Noelvi Marte is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today’s game.

Noelvi Marte will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.220) suggests that Noelvi Marte has been lucky since the start of last season with his .259 actual batting average.

Tyler Stephenson will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Tyler Stephenson’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last year to this one, falling from 48.3% to 40.6%.

Tyler Stephenson’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off recently, falling from 40.6% on the season to 33.3% over the past 14 days.

Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jonathan India in today’s game.

In the last week, Jonathan India’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.1% down to 0%.

Jonathan India’s average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 87.5-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 79.8-mph in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ben Rortvedt in the 19th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

In the past 14 days, Ben Rortvedt’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 11.4%.

Grading out in the 24th percentile for power, Yandy Diaz has hit 11.3 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year.

Tyler Stephenson’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (10.7°) is considerably worse than his 13.7° mark last year.

In terms of his home runs, Tyler Stephenson has had positive variance on his side this year. His 22.3 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 19.0.

The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side (0) today against Tyler Alexander, Elly De La Cruz hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Elly De La Cruz today.

Isaac Paredes’s BABIP talent is projected in the 2nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Santiago Espinal in the 6th percentile when estimating his home run skill.

Santiago Espinal is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card today.

Santiago Espinal will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (7.2) provides evidence that Santiago Espinal has been lucky this year with his 16.1 actual HR/600.

Today, Brandon Lowe is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.5% rate (97th percentile).

Extreme groundball bats like Brandon Lowe tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Greene.

Brandon Lowe has been lucky this year, notching a .365 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .338 — a .027 deviation.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Richie Palacios in the 15th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

Richie Palacios’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls lately (1° in the past 14 days) is significantly worse than his 11.7° seasonal angle.

Richie Palacios has been cold lately, putting up a 0% Barrel% (a reliable stat to study power) over the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Hunter Greene in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall pitching talent.

It is expected that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Adam Hamari) calling pitches in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Tropicana Field as the 2nd-worst venue in the game for base hits.

Hunter Greene was on point in his previous start and conceded 0 ER.

Sporting a 10.300 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Richie Palacios grades out in the 17th percentile for power.

By putting up a 5.23 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Noelvi Marte has demonstrated poor plate discipline, grading out in the 18th percentile.

Jonathan India’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off in recent games, falling from 15.2% on the season to 0% over the past week.

Austin Slater’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 91.1-mph mark last year has fallen to 88.5-mph.

Santiago Espinal’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last season to this one, falling from 44.8% to 39.7%.

Elly De La Cruz has been lucky this year, compiling a .363 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .331 — a .032 deviation.