Reds @ Pirates Series Game 2 Matchup Details

Positives for the Cincinnati Reds Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 2nd-best hitter in the league as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in the league, which tends to lead to better offense.

As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Elly De La Cruz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against Mitch Keller in today’s game.

By putting up a .347 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Elly De La Cruz has performed in the 79th percentile.

The #5 venue in the league for boosting BABIP to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Spencer Horwitz is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.

Batting from the opposite that Chase Burns throws from, Spencer Horwitz will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Spencer Horwitz will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Spencer Horwitz has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 9.2% seasonal rate to 17.6% over the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Chase Burns in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall pitching abilities.

It is expected that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Jim Wolf) behind the plate in this game.

The #1 park in MLB for suppressing home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.

Chase Burns’s 97.7-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 99th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

When estimating his strikeout skill, Chase Burns projects as the 12th-best starter in baseball currently, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Bart, Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski).

In his previous GS, Chase Burns performed well and accumulated 8 strikeouts.

Pittsburgh grades out as the #1 offense in the game when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (45.8% rate this year).

Austin Hays is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today’s game.

Austin Hays has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 94.7-mph average to last year’s 91.6-mph average.

By putting up a .316 BABIP this year, Austin Hays is ranked in the 75th percentile.

PNC Park grades out as the #5 park in MLB for right-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 91st percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Tyler Stephenson has seen a big gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.6-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 91.6-mph EV.

Compared to last year, Tyler Stephenson has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 14% to 21.8% this season.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Tyler Stephenson’s 26.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 21.8%.

In notching a .341 BABIP this year, Tyler Stephenson is positioned in the 89th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 75th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 88th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

Gavin Lux is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.

Gavin Lux will hold the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today’s matchup.

Gavin Lux is likely to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates has just 1 same-handed RP.

In the past two weeks, Gavin Lux’s 63.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 53.4%.

Compared to his seasonal average of 10°, Gavin Lux has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 13.4° figure in the past 14 days.

Recording 92 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Mitch Keller places in the 80th percentile.

Mitch Keller will have the handedness advantage against 6 opposing batters in this matchup.

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Tyler Stephenson).

Mitch Keller will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his metrics across the board.

Ke’Bryan Hayes’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (5.7°) is quite a bit better than his 2.6° figure last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ke’Bryan Hayes’s true offensive skill to be a .292, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .039 gap between that figure and his actual .253 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.

The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Chase Burns.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Bryan Reynolds will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Bryan Reynolds’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 44.3% to 49.3%.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Bryan Reynolds ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Bryan Reynolds has experienced some negative variance this year. His .292 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .329.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 80th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Andrew McCutchen is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Andrew McCutchen will hold that advantage today.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Oneil Cruz ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.

Oneil Cruz will have the handedness advantage over Chase Burns in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as MLB’s 6th-best home run batter.

Oneil Cruz will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

In the last 7 days, Oneil Cruz’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 97.8-mph over the course of the season to 103.5-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Gonzales in the 75th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

Nick Gonzales is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Nick Gonzales will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Nick Gonzales’s BABIP skill is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

TJ Friedl is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.

TJ Friedl will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller today.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so TJ Friedl has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Compared to his seasonal average of 13.2°, TJ Friedl has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 24.6° mark over the past 14 days.

When it comes to plate discipline, TJ Friedl’s talent is quite good, putting up a 1.36 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 91st percentile.

Spencer Steer’s launch angle lately (27.5° in the past two weeks’ worth of games) is a considerable increase over his 18.1° seasonal figure.

Spencer Steer’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (15.6°) is a considerable increase over his 11.5° figure last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 90th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Matt McLain is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

Despite posting a .289 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Matt McLain has had some very poor luck given the .034 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .323.

Matt McLain has done a favorable job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls. His 17.2° mark is among the highest in baseball this year (89th percentile).

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Matt McLain ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Noelvi Marte has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 8.8% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the last 7 days.

Ranking in the 78th percentile, Noelvi Marte has posted a .438 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Noelvi Marte in the 80th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Jared Triolo will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Jared Triolo’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 17.2% to 21.8%.

Over the past 7 days, Jared Triolo’s 60% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 36.1%.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.251) may lead us to conclude that Jared Triolo has had bad variance on his side this year with his .168 actual batting average.

Jared Triolo has exhibited good plate discipline this year, checking in at the 89th percentile with a 1.51 K/BB rate.

Jared Triolo has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 98.1-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal average of 91.6-mph.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Jared Triolo has had bad variance on his side this year. His .246 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .329.

Negatives with the Pittsburgh Pirates Game Today

The #1 stadium in the league for suppressing home runs to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.

The league’s 6th-highest average fence height can be found at PNC Park.

Elly De La Cruz has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.

The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense grades out as the 5th-best among every team on the slate today.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Elly De La Cruz in today’s matchup.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Elly De La Cruz’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.3% down to 6.3%.

Over the last two weeks, Elly De La Cruz’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal EV of 93.9 mph to 86.6 mph.

In today’s game, Spencer Horwitz is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.1% rate (94th percentile).

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Chase Burns is projected to throw 85 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 6th-least of all pitchers on the slate.

It may be smart to expect better numbers for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

Chase Burns will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Chase Burns’s high utilization rate of his fastball (58.6% this year) is likely hurting his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

PNC Park profiles as the #24 field in baseball for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

PNC Park projects as the #30 field in the game for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Mitch Keller will have the handedness advantage over Austin Hays in today’s matchup.

Austin Hays pulls many of his flyballs (34.3% — 84th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Austin Hays will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Austin Hays’s average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 89.1-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 85.6-mph over the last 14 days.

Tyler Stephenson is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today’s game.

Long-balls are generally less common at parks with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league stadiums.

Mitch Keller will have the handedness advantage against Tyler Stephenson in today’s matchup.

Tyler Stephenson will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

This year, Gavin Lux has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 24% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Gavin Lux today.

Over the past 14 days, Gavin Lux’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal figure of 88.7 mph to 80.3 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 17th percentile when assessing his home run ability.

Mitch Keller’s 93.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.2-mph decline from last season’s 94.5-mph figure.

Mitch Keller has notched an 8.8% Swinging Strike rate this year, checking in at the 20th percentile.

The Cincinnati Reds have done a favorable job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 15.9° mark is among the highest in the league this year (#4 overall).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke’Bryan Hayes in the 19th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Ke’Bryan Hayes is projected to hit 9th in the lineup today.

Mitch Keller will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ke’Bryan Hayes in today’s matchup.

Ke’Bryan Hayes will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Bryan Reynolds’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined in recent games; his 94.4-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 84.9-mph over the past two weeks.

Bryan Reynolds has posted a .290 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 19th percentile.

Bryan Reynolds has displayed poor plate discipline this year, placing in the 21st percentile with a 3.89 K/BB rate.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Bryan Reynolds’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.7% down to 3.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the 2nd percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in today’s game.

Hitting from the same side that Chase Burns throws from, Isiah Kiner-Falefa will not have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.5-mph dropping to 79.2-mph in the last two weeks.

There has been a significant decline in Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s launch angle from last season’s 8.9° to 2.8° this season.

Batting from the same side that Chase Burns throws from, Andrew McCutchen will have a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Andrew McCutchen pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.6% — 86th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Over the last 14 days, Andrew McCutchen’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal EV of 94.4 mph to 88.3 mph.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 14.2°, Andrew McCutchen has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (5.3°) over the last 14 days.

Andrew McCutchen’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, falling from 17.4% to 12.5%.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Oneil Cruz’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 20% down to 6.5%.

Oneil Cruz’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls of late (-6.8° over the last 14 days) is considerably worse than his 5.6° seasonal mark.

Oneil Cruz has posted a .205 batting average this year, grading out in the 5th percentile.

Hitting from the same side that Chase Burns throws from, Nick Gonzales faces a tough challenge in today’s game.

In the past week’s worth of games, Nick Gonzales’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.1% down to 0%.

Nick Gonzales’s launch angle this year (8.7°) is considerably lower than his 12.6° figure last season.

Nick Gonzales’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls in recent games (2.2° in the past two weeks’ worth of games) is quite a bit lower than his 7.8° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects TJ Friedl in the 13th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for TJ Friedl in today’s matchup.

TJ Friedl’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 89.5-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 79.1-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects TJ Friedl in the 14th percentile when estimating his home run skill.

Spencer Steer is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.

Hitting from the same side that Mitch Keller throws from, Spencer Steer will have a tough challenge today.

Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (36.8% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Spencer Steer today.

Hitting from the same side that Mitch Keller throws from, Matt McLain will have a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Matt McLain in today’s game.

Matt McLain’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 88.1-mph seasonal average has decreased to 85.3-mph in the past two weeks.

Noelvi Marte is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.

Mitch Keller will hold the platoon advantage against Noelvi Marte today.

Noelvi Marte will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Jared Triolo is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.

When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Jared Triolo has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 10% of the time.

Hitting from the same side that Chase Burns throws from, Jared Triolo will have a tough matchup today.

Over the past week, Jared Triolo’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.9% down to 0%.

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