CIN @ NYM
Matchup Details
Todays Game is on Friday, July 18th
18/07/25 19:10:00 PM EST First Pitch
Positive Match Player Stats for Reds vs Mets Matchup Today
When it comes to his BABIP talent, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.
Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league parks.
The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Extreme flyball bats like Elly De La Cruz generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Sean Manaea.
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Elly De La Cruz ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citi Field as the 10th-best venue in the game for righty home runs.
Austin Hays is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.
Hitting from the opposite that Sean Manaea throws from, Austin Hays will have an advantage in today’s game.
Austin Hays pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.1% — 82nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Austin Hays has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.5-mph average to last season’s 91.6-mph figure.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.
Batting from the opposite that Sean Manaea throws from, Tyler Stephenson will have an advantage in today’s game.
Compared to his seasonal average of 16.2°, Tyler Stephenson has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 23.2° figure in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Francisco Lindor is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.
The switch-hitting Francisco Lindor will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Nick Lodolo.
Francisco Lindor pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.1% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Juan Soto is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.
Among every team in action today, the 4th-worst outfield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citi Field as the 10th-best park in the majors for lefty home runs.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.
Brandon Nimmo is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.
Brandon Nimmo has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Pete Alonso projects as the 15th-best batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.
Pete Alonso will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Lodolo today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Pete Alonso as the majors’s 11th-best home run batter.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citi Field as the 4th-best field in MLB for walks.
The Cincinnati Reds have 8 bats in the projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sean Manaea in this matchup.
Among all SPs, Sean Manaea’s fastball spin rate of 2015.3 rpm grades out in the 1st percentile since the start of last season.
When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Sean Manaea in the 81st percentile among all SPs in the league.
The #5 venue in the majors for boosting strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citi Field.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Torrens in the 75th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.
Luis Torrens will have the handedness advantage over Nick Lodolo today.
Luis Torrens hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s shallowest CF fences today.
Luis Torrens will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.
Hitting from the opposite that Sean Manaea throws from, Santiago Espinal will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.
Hitting from the opposite that Nick Lodolo throws from, Tyrone Taylor will have an edge today.
Tyrone Taylor pulls a lot of his flyballs (34% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Extreme groundball batters like Tyrone Taylor tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Lodolo.
Batting from the opposite that Sean Manaea throws from, Connor Joe will have an edge in today’s game.
Connor Joe hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
In comparison to his 85.3-mph average last year, Connor Joe’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 89.4 mph.
Connor Joe’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 40.4% to 46.8%.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mark Vientos in the 83rd percentile when estimating his home run talent.
Mark Vientos is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.
Hitting from the opposite that Nick Lodolo throws from, Mark Vientos will have an edge in today’s matchup.
Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Ronny Mauricio pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.
Ronny Mauricio will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.
Over the last 14 days, Ronny Mauricio’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.1-mph over the course of the season to 99.4-mph in recent games.
TJ Friedl is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.
TJ Friedl has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 92.9-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 87.1-mph EV.
TJ Friedl’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, rising from 14.1% on the season to 33.3% over the last week.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s estimation, Nick Lodolo’s overall pitching ability ranks in the 78th percentile out of all starting pitchers in baseball currently.
Nick Lodolo has averaged 91.5 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 77th percentile.
In his previous start, Nick Lodolo turned in a great performance and gave up 2 ER.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Nick Lodolo in the 77th percentile when it comes to his strikeout ability.
Spencer Steer is penciled in 5th in the batting order today.
Hitting from the opposite that Sean Manaea throws from, Spencer Steer will have an edge today.
Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.5% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Spencer Steer’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (15.5°) is considerably higher than his 11.5° figure last year.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.
Matt McLain is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.
Matt McLain will have the handedness advantage against Sean Manaea in today’s matchup.
Matt McLain hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s shallowest CF fences today.
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Matt McLain ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Noelvi Marte’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Hitting from the opposite that Sean Manaea throws from, Noelvi Marte will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.
Noelvi Marte hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Noelvi Marte has made big improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 9% seasonal rate to 17.4% over the last two weeks.
Negative Match Player Stats with Reds vs Mets
The #3 park in baseball for suppressing offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citi Field.
Citi Field’s elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to less offense.
The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for mound aces.
The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will be less advantaged while batting from his bad side (0) today against Sean Manaea,Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Elly De La Cruz today.
Over the past 14 days, Elly De La Cruz’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.2% down to 0%.
The #3 venue in baseball for suppressing base hits to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citi Field.
Austin Hays will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.
Over the last week, Austin Hays’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.1% down to 0%.
Austin Hays’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined of late, falling from 17.7% on the season to 0% over the last 7 days.
Tyler Stephenson is penciled in 7th in the batting order today.
Tyler Stephenson will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.
Tyler Stephenson has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 11.3% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last two weeks.
Francisco Lindor’s average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 90.1-mph seasonal average has dropped to 87.2-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
Francisco Lindor’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (14.8°) is a significant dropoff from his 18.8° figure last season.
In the past 7 days, Francisco Lindor’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.4%.
Nick Lodolo will have the handedness advantage over Juan Soto in today’s matchup.
Citi Field projects as the #28 field in baseball for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Hitting from the same side that Nick Lodolo throws from, Brandon Nimmo has a tough challenge in today’s game.
In the past week, Brandon Nimmo’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.1% down to 0%.
Compared to his seasonal figure of 12.3°, Brandon Nimmo has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-9.3°) in the past two weeks.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Pete Alonso’s true offensive ability to be a .366, indicating that he has had some very good luck this year given the .020 deviation between that mark and his actual .386 wOBA.
The Cincinnati Reds projected lineup profiles as the 4th-weakest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Luis Torrens (the Mets’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) grades out as a good pitch framer.
Sean Manaea will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his metrics across the board.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sean Manaea to throw 84 pitches in this game (5th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
Sean Manaea’s high usage percentage of his fastball (56% since the start of last season) is likely dampening his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
Luis Torrens is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game.
19% of the time that Luis Torrens has started against a left-handed starter this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.
Luis Torrens has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 14% seasonal rate has lowered to 6.7% over the last 14 days.
When it comes to his home run ability, Santiago Espinal ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Santiago Espinal is penciled in 8th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
When estimating his overall offensive skill, Santiago Espinal ranks in the 23rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Santiago Espinal will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.
Tyrone Taylor is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.
24% of the time that Tyrone Taylor has started against a lefty hurler this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.
Tyrone Taylor’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 91.7-mph EV last year has fallen to 88.5-mph.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Joe in the 23rd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.
Connor Joe is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.
Connor Joe has been pulled from the game early 57% of the time when starting against a left-handed starter this year.
Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Connor Joe in today’s matchup.
Mark Vientos has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 17% of the time when starting against a left-handed starter this year.
Over the last 7 days, Mark Vientos’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12.1%.
Mark Vientos has notched a .276 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, grading out in the 9th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Ronny Mauricio is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup.
The switch-hitting Ronny Mauricio will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side (0) today against Nick Lodolo,In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Ronny Mauricio’s 5.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12.5%.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects TJ Friedl in the 12th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.
Hitting from the same side that Sean Manaea throws from, TJ Friedl has a tough challenge in today’s game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects TJ Friedl in the 14th percentile when estimating his home run ability.
TJ Friedl will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.
Nick Lodolo will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.
In his last start, Nick Lodolo wasn’t on when it came to striking batters out and was only able to post 1 Ks.
Nick Lodolo’s 93-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.1-mph decrease from last season’s 94.1-mph figure.
Nick Lodolo’s change-up rate has risen by 6% from last season to this one (16.5% to 22.5%) .
Spencer Steer will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.
Over the last week, Spencer Steer’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.6% down to 0%.
Spencer Steer has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .311 rate is a fair amount higher than his .287 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Matt McLain will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.
Matt McLain has put up a .216 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 7th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
By putting up a .289 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Matt McLain grades out in the 19th percentile for hitting ability.
By putting up a .274 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Matt McLain grades out in the 14th percentile.
Noelvi Marte is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game.
Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Noelvi Marte today.
Noelvi Marte’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, falling from 16.1% to 10.1%.
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