Reds vs Brewers match player stats | 2026 Series Game 3 Wednesday, July 1st

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CIN @ MIL

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Reds @ Brewers Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Teams : Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Series Game 3
Date : Todays Game is on Wednesday, July 1st
Time : 01/07/26 20:10:00 PM EST First Pitch

Positives for the Cincinnati Reds Series Game 3 Game Today

When it comes to his home run ability, Eugenio Suarez ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today’s game.

,The #9 ballpark in baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.

,American Family Field has the 6th-shallowest CF fences among all stadiums.

,American Family Field has the 3rd-shortest fences among all major league stadiums.

,When estimating his overall offensive ability, Matt McLain ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.

,Batting from the opposite that Shane Drohan throws from, Matt McLain will have the upper hand today.

,Matt McLain hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,Matt McLain’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 16% to 23.4%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 5th-best hitter in the league when estimating his BABIP skill.

,Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

,Jackson Chourio is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

,Andrew Vaughn is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 77th percentile when assessing his home run ability.

,In the last week, Edwin Arroyo’s 20% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.7%.

,Batting from the opposite that Andrew Abbott throws from, Andrew Vaughn will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

,Brice Turang’s BABIP talent is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Brice Turang is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.

,American Family Field projects as the #9 venue in the league for lefty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the most strikeout-prone lineup today is the Cincinnati Reds with a 25.5% underlying K%.

,The #5 field in the majors for boosting strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.

,Home field advantage typically improves pitcher stats in all categories, and Shane Drohan will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,Among all starting pitchers, Shane Drohan’s fastball spin rate of 2425 rpm is in the 83rd percentile this year.

,Joey Ortiz will hold the platoon advantage over Andrew Abbott in today’s matchup.

,Among all the teams in action today, the worst outfield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.

,Sal Frelick will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which should bolster all of his stats.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

,William Contreras is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

,Cooper Pratt will have the handedness advantage against Andrew Abbott in today’s game.

,Brice Turang hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,Tyler Stephenson, the Reds’s expected catcher in today’s game, grades out as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks American Family Field as the 10th-best field in the game for home runs.

,The Milwaukee Brewers have 7 batters in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andrew Abbott in this matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edwin Arroyo in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

,Edwin Arroyo’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased of late, rising from 61.9% on the season to 70% over the past 14 days.

,Recording 93.1 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Andrew Abbott places in the 83rd percentile.

,With a 0.78 discrepancy between Andrew Abbott’s 7.00 K/9 and his 7.78 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in MLB this year when it comes to strikeouts and ought to see positive regression in future games.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

,Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Joey Ortiz will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 80th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

,Tyler Stephenson will hold the platoon advantage over Shane Drohan in today’s game.

,JJ Bleday is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.

,JJ Bleday’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 18.4% to 22.1%.

,Gary Sanchez is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Batting from the opposite that Andrew Abbott throws from, Gary Sanchez will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

,Gary Sanchez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 85th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Noelvi Marte in the 82nd percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

,Noelvi Marte will hold the platoon advantage over Shane Drohan today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Steer in the 75th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

,Spencer Steer has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (58% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.

,Hitting from the opposite that Shane Drohan throws from, Spencer Steer will have the upper hand in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Stewart in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

,Sal Stewart is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Batting from the opposite that Shane Drohan throws from, Sal Stewart will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

,Sal Stewart has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 96.2-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal mark of 93.3-mph.

,Cooper Pratt will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 97th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

,The Cincinnati Reds have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season,Eugenio Suarez will hold the platoon advantage over Shane Drohan in today’s matchup.

,Eugenio Suarez has been unlucky this year, notching a .285 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .313 — a .028 discrepancy.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 80th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

,Over the past 14 days, Tyler Stephenson’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.7-mph over the course of the season to 97.2-mph recently.

,Tyler Stephenson’s launch angle this year (19.9°) is a considerable increase over his 12.8° figure last year.

,Elly De La Cruz has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.8-mph average to last season’s 90.7-mph figure.

,Compared to last year, Elly De La Cruz has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 13.4% to 19.6% this season.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 86th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

,Batting from the opposite that Andrew Abbott throws from, William Contreras will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

,William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,In the past week, Noelvi Marte’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.2% up to 25%.

,When assessing his overall offensive ability, JJ Bleday ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,The switch-hitting Blake Perkins will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Andrew Abbott.

,JJ Bleday’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, rising from 46.3% on the season to 62.5% over the past 7 days.

,When it comes to plate discipline, JJ Bleday’s skill is quite good, posting a 1.44 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 87th percentile.

,Joey Ortiz has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 89-mph average to last season’s 86.2-mph average.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gary Sanchez in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

,Sal Frelick’s launch angle recently (25° in the last week) is a considerable increase over his 8.8° seasonal mark.

,When assessing his overall offensive ability, Andrew Vaughn ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Stewart in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

,Jackson Chourio will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andrew Abbott today.

,Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

,Blake Perkins will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

,Blake Perkins has been unlucky this year, putting up a .234 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .284 — a .050 discrepancy.

Negatives with the Milwaukee Brewers Series Game 3 Game Today

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to drop to the 4th-lowest level of the day at 91,°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).

,Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Eugenio Suarez in today’s game.

,Over the past two weeks, Eugenio Suarez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.4% down to 0%.

,Eugenio Suarez’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 90.8-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 84.5-mph in the past week.

,Eugenio Suarez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased of late, decreasing from 14.4% on the season to 5.6% over the last two weeks.

,Matt McLain has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (51% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today’s game.

,Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.

,Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Matt McLain in today’s matchup.

,In the past 14 days, Matt McLain’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.8% down to 0%.

,As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Elly De La Cruz will bat from his weak side against Shane Drohan today.

,Elly De La Cruz has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Elly De La Cruz in today’s game.

,Over the past 7 days, Jackson Chourio’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal average of 95.5 mph to 86.5 mph.

,Despite posting a .372 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jackson Chourio has experienced some positive variance given the .028 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .344.

,This season, Andrew Vaughn’s Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 11.9% last year to just 3.8% this year.

,When assessing his home run talent, Edwin Arroyo ranks in the 13th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Edwin Arroyo is projected to bat 9th in the lineup today.

,Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Edwin Arroyo today.

,Edwin Arroyo has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.2-mph dropping to 84.9-mph in the past two weeks.

,Despite posting a .397 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Andrew Vaughn has experienced some positive variance given the .067 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .330.

,Andrew Abbott will hold the platoon advantage over Brice Turang today.

,Over the last 7 days, Brice Turang’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9% down to 0%.

,Compared to his seasonal figure of 7°, Brice Turang has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (3.7°) in the past 14 days.

,Despite posting a .350 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brice Turang has been lucky given the .023 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .327.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shane Drohan to throw 84 pitches today (9th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

,The Cincinnati Reds have 8 batters in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shane Drohan in this matchup.

,In his previous start, Shane Drohan wasn’t on when it came to striking batters out and was only able to tally 2 Ks.

,Over his last 3 games started, Shane Drohan has suffered a sizeable drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2425 rpm over the entire season to 2373 rpm in recent games.

,When it comes to his home run skill, Joey Ortiz ranks in the 23rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Joey Ortiz is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this matchup.

,In today’s matchup, Joey Ortiz is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.8% rate (96th percentile).

,Joey Ortiz’s launch angle this season (6.6°) is significantly worse than his 13.8° angle last year.

,When assessing his home run ability, Sal Frelick ranks in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Sal Frelick is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.

,Hitting from the same side that Andrew Abbott throws from, Sal Frelick will be at a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

,Sal Frelick’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 88.2-mph mark last season has lowered to 85.4-mph.

,Utilizing Statcast metrics, William Contreras is in the 23rd percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 12.600.

,When assessing his home run talent, Cooper Pratt ranks in the 14th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Cooper Pratt is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today.

,Cooper Pratt has shown some bad exit velocity stats in recent games, averaging just 83.4-mph on his flyballs over the last two weeks.

,Cooper Pratt has not been honed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs recently, hitting balls between 23° and 34° just 0% of the time over the past two weeks.

,The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 6th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward,Andrew Abbott performed well in his previous start and allowed 0 ER.

,Andrew Abbott has gone to his slider 5.6% more often this year (19.5%) than he did last year (13.9%).

,The 7.3% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers ranks them as the #23 club in the game this year by this metric.

,Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 19.9% underlying K%.

,Playing on the road typically diminishes pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Andrew Abbott today.

,Tyler Stephenson is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.

,Tyler Stephenson has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and will be challenged by baseball’s 7th-deepest RF fences today.

,Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Tyler Stephenson in today’s game.

,JJ Bleday’s BABIP skill is projected in the 10th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Shane Drohan will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against JJ Bleday in today’s matchup.

,JJ Bleday pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.5% — 93rd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gary Sanchez in the 1st percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

,Gary Sanchez has been lucky this year, compiling a .356 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .317 — a .039 difference.

,Gary Sanchez ranks in the 16th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (37.3% rate since the start of last season).

,Gary Sanchez is very slow, placing in the 2nd percentile in Sprint Speed at 24.17 ft/sec this year.

,Noelvi Marte is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.

,Noelvi Marte will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

,There has been a significant decline in Noelvi Marte’s launch angle from last year’s 12.9° to 7.5° this year.

,Matt McLain’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased in recent games, falling from 23.4% on the season to 0% over the past 14 days.

,Spencer Steer will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

,Over the past 14 days, Spencer Steer’s 14.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 37.7%.

,With a .298 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Spencer Steer finds himself in the 23rd percentile for offensive skills.

,Sal Stewart has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and will be challenged by baseball’s 7th-deepest RF fences today.

,Sal Stewart will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

,Shane Drohan has notched a 3.24 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher can most influence) this year, placing in the 84th percentile.

,Eugenio Suarez’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 19th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Sal Frelick’s launch angle this season (8.8°) is quite a bit lower than his 12.1° mark last year.

,JJ Bleday will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

,Over the past two weeks, JJ Bleday’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.2% down to 0%.

,When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Blake Perkins ranks in the 24th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Blake Perkins is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,In today’s matchup, Blake Perkins is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 33.2% rate (76th percentile).

,Blake Perkins’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 89.1-mph mark last year has lowered to 86.8-mph.

,Tyler Stephenson’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 95.9-mph EV last year has fallen off to 93.7-mph.

,In terms of his home runs, Noelvi Marte has been lucky since the start of last season. His 23.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.0.

,Joey Ortiz’s BABIP ability is projected in the 23rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Andrew Vaughn’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, going from 16.1% to 12.5%.

,Elly De La Cruz has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 14.2% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past 7 days.

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