Todays Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Reds vs Braves Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Amed Rosario as the 16th-best batter in Major League Baseball when assessing his BABIP talent.

The #4 ballpark in the majors for boosting base hits to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.

Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.

As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 3rd-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.

Amed Rosario hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Amed Rosario has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87-mph to 90.9-mph over the last two weeks.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (8.7) implies that Amed Rosario has been unlucky this year with his 5.5 actual HR/600.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Jonathan India is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.

Truist Park grades out as the #4 ballpark in Major League Baseball for overall right-handed offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Steer in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Spencer Steer is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

The #4 stadium in the majors for boosting offensive stats to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.

The 3rd-shallowest centerfield fences in MLB are found in Truist Park.

Jake Fraley will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Charlie Morton today.

Jake Fraley’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, rising from 14.3% on the season to 26.7% in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Truist Park as the 5th-best venue in the game for base hits.

Charlie Morton has compiled a 4.56 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that deals with the variables most within a pitcher’s control) this year, ranking in the 22nd percentile.

The Cincinnati Reds have done a favorable job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 16.2° figure is among the highest in baseball this year (#2 overall).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the best batter in MLB when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Among every team playing today, the worst infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.

Orlando Arcia will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarred Kelenic in the 78th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

Hitting from the opposite that Nick Martinez throws from, Jarred Kelenic will have an advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ty France in the 85th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

In the last week’s worth of games, Ty France’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.5-mph over the course of the season to 100.9-mph lately.

Jonathan India has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 8.5% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Michael Harris II is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gio Urshela in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

TJ Friedl is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarred Kelenic in the 78th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 4th-best ballpark in MLB for left-handed base hits.

Marcell Ozuna projects as the 18th-best home run batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Marcell Ozuna is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Marcell Ozuna will hold that advantage in today’s game.

When it comes to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Charlie Morton in the 91st percentile among all SPs in Major League Baseball.

Charlie Morton has averaged 96.4 adjusted pitches per GS this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile.

In his last GS, Charlie Morton was rolling and accumulated 8 strikeouts.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Ty France ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ty France has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 93.5-mph average to last year’s 90.2-mph mark.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Luke Williams will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 97th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

Matt Olson is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Gio Urshela will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Gio Urshela has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 89.5-mph average to last season’s 87.4-mph mark.

Gio Urshela has been unlucky this year, posting a .273 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .297 — a .024 disparity.

Santiago Espinal’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Santiago Espinal’s launch angle in recent games (26.5° in the last 7 days) is quite a bit higher than his 14.2° seasonal figure.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Elly De La Cruz ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Tyler Stephenson ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Tyler Stephenson is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Michael Harris II ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Michael Harris II will have the handedness advantage against Nick Martinez in today’s game.

Over the past 7 days, Luke Williams’s 40% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 25%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

The Atlanta Braves have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward, Nick Martinez has a reverse platoon split and has the misfortune of facing 6 same-handed hitters in today’s matchup.

Jarred Kelenic hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Matt Olson ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Compared to his seasonal average of 16.3°, Spencer Steer has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 24.9° figure over the last 14 days.

Orlando Arcia has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph to 96.4-mph in the past week.

There has been a significant improvement in Orlando Arcia’s launch angle from last season’s 5.5° to 9.4° this season.

Last season, Santiago Espinal had an average launch angle of 8.8° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 12.9°.

Tyler Stephenson hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

TJ Friedl will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Charlie Morton in today’s game.

The Atlanta Braves have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jarred Kelenic, Luke Williams, Ramon Laureano).

In his last outing, Nick Martinez was on point and put up 7 strikeouts.

Negative Match Player Stats with Reds vs Braves

Amed Rosario has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (59% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Batting from the same side that Charlie Morton throws from, Amed Rosario encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

The Atlanta Braves outfield defense projects as the 4th-strongest out of every team today.

Amed Rosario will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Amed Rosario’s launch angle this season (3.6°) is a considerable dropoff from his 7.5° angle last year.

When it comes to his home run talent, Amed Rosario ranks in the 8th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Charlie Morton will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jonathan India in today’s matchup.

Jonathan India pulls many of his flyballs (33.1% — 75th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest LF fences today.

Jonathan India will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Jonathan India’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 87.1-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 84-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Charlie Morton will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Spencer Steer in today’s matchup.

Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 89th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Spencer Steer in today’s game.

Spencer Steer has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.2% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past 14 days.

When it comes to his home run skill, Jake Fraley ranks in the 14th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jake Fraley is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

15% of the time that Jake Fraley has started against a northpaw this year, he has been pulled from the game early.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jake Fraley today.

There has been a significant decline in Jake Fraley’s launch angle from last year’s 16.3° to 10.2° this year.

Among all major league stadiums, Truist Park’s left field dimensions are the 3rd-deepest.

Charlie Morton will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his metrics across the board.

Charlie Morton turned in a great performance in his last outing and allowed 2 ER.

Charlie Morton’s high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (61.7% this year) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

Elly De La Cruz will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Despite posting a .351 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Elly De La Cruz has been lucky given the .018 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .333.

Orlando Arcia’s BABIP skill is projected in the 10th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Orlando Arcia is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today’s game.

Nick Martinez will hold the platoon advantage over Orlando Arcia in today’s game.

Orlando Arcia pulls many of his flyballs (34.5% — 84th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences today.

In the last week, Orlando Arcia’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.2%.

Jarred Kelenic is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today.

12% of the time that Jarred Kelenic has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

From last year to this one, Jarred Kelenic’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 53.3% to 46.1%.

In terms of plate discipline, Jarred Kelenic’s skill is quite bad, sporting a 4.26 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 15th percentile.

Ty France is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Hitting from the same side that Charlie Morton throws from, Ty France has a tough challenge in today’s game.

Ty France will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Ranking in the 17th percentile, Michael Harris II has posted a .283 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

With a 4.54 K/BB rate this year, Michael Harris II has shown poor plate discipline, placing in the 11th percentile.

Gio Urshela is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.

Batting from the same side that Nick Martinez throws from, Gio Urshela will have a tough challenge in today’s game.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Gio Urshela’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal average of 89.5 mph to 87.1 mph.

Gio Urshela’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off lately, falling from 14.4% on the season to 6.1% over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects TJ Friedl in the 7th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

TJ Friedl will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 17°, TJ Friedl has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (1.7°) in the past 14 days.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (15.3) provides evidence that TJ Friedl has been very fortunate this year with his 24.2 actual HR/600.

Nick Martinez will have the handedness advantage over Marcell Ozuna in today’s game.

Marcell Ozuna pulls many of his flyballs (35.7% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Marcell Ozuna has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 16.3% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

Marcell Ozuna has been lucky this year, posting a .399 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .347 — a .052 disparity.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Cincinnati Reds with a 21.7% underlying K%.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Luke Williams ranks in the 9th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Luke Williams is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in today’s game.

Luke Williams has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 29% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher since the start of last season.

Nick Martinez will have the handedness advantage against Luke Williams today.

Matt Olson has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 12.3% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last 7 days.

Matt Olson’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 93.7-mph figure last season has decreased to 91.3-mph.

Grading out in the 19th percentile, Matt Olson has posted a .269 BABIP this year.

When estimating his home run talent, Gio Urshela ranks in the 13th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Santiago Espinal is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card today.

Hitting from the same side that Charlie Morton throws from, Santiago Espinal will have a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Santiago Espinal today.

Batting from the same side that Charlie Morton throws from, Tyler Stephenson will have a tough challenge today.

Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Tyler Stephenson today.

Tyler Stephenson has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 9.5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last 7 days.

Tyler Stephenson’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased lately; his 93.7-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 79.8-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

Charlie Morton has exhibited weak control this year, compiling a 15th percentile BB% of 9.6%.

Today’s version of the Braves projected offense is a bit watered down, as their .317 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .328 overall projected rate.

In his last GS, Nick Martinez was rolling and gave up 1 ER.

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Nick Martinez must realize this, because he has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 59.3% of the time, grading out in the 77th percentile.

Checking in at the 93rd percentile, Nick Martinez has recorded a 5.52 K/BB rate this year.

Spencer Steer’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 91.5-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 81.9-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Orlando Arcia has experienced some positive variance this year. His .277 figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .256.

When assessing his home run skill, Santiago Espinal ranks in the 7th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Over the last 7 days, Tyler Stephenson’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.1%.

TJ Friedl has put up a .290 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 22nd percentile.

Posting a .364 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year, TJ Friedl grades out in the 25th percentile.

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Nick Martinez is projected to throw 84 pitches in today’s matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 11th-most of the day.

Playing on the road generally diminishes pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Nick Martinez in today’s game.

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