Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Reds vs Braves Series Game 3 Matchup Today

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Elly De La Cruz ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.

Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in the league, which generally leads to more offense.

The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Grant Holmes.

Elly De La Cruz hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the best hitter in MLB when assessing his BABIP talent.

Truist Park ranks as the #7 ballpark in the game for overall left-handed offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Truist Park ranks as the #5 ballpark in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Alex Verdugo is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.

Alex Verdugo will hold the platoon advantage over Hunter Greene in today’s matchup.

Alex Verdugo will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Alex Verdugo has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .290 figure is deflated compared to his .306 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Verdugo in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 7th-best stadium in baseball for boosting offensive stats to RHB.

Tyler Stephenson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

Over the past 7 days, Tyler Stephenson has averaged an impressive 97.3-mph exit velocity on his flyballs, an advanced indicator of home run potential.

The #5 venue in the majors for boosting batting average to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.

Tyler Stephenson has been lifting the ball well of late, putting up a 30.5° launch angle in the last week.

Gavin Lux’s BABIP talent is projected in the 88th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Gavin Lux is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Grant Holmes throws from, Gavin Lux will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Gavin Lux hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

Gavin Lux has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 94.7-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal average of 91.7-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Olson as MLB’s 16th-best home run hitter.

Matt Olson is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.

The 3rd-shallowest CF dimensions in the league are found in Truist Park.

Matt Olson will hold the platoon advantage over Hunter Greene in today’s game.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Matt Olson ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Sean Murphy ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Sean Murphy is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Sean Murphy will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his home run ability, Sean Murphy ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Sean Murphy has made substantial improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 9.6% rate last season to 16.3% this season.

Jake Fraley will have the handedness advantage over Grant Holmes in today’s matchup.

There has been a significant improvement in Jake Fraley’s launch angle from last season’s 10.9° to 18.9° this year.

In the last 14 days, Jake Fraley’s 20% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eli White in the 88th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Eli White will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Over the past 7 days, Eli White’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.8% up to 15.4%.

Santiago Espinal has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 85.8-mph to 93.8-mph over the past 7 days.

Santiago Espinal has shown impressive plate discipline since the start of last season, checking in at the 75th percentile with a 2.06 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Santiago Espinal in the 80th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Marcell Ozuna is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

Marcell Ozuna will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

By putting up a .378 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Marcell Ozuna has performed in the 97th percentile for offensive ability.

Ozzie Albies will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Ozzie Albies’s launch angle this season (22.4°) is quite a bit better than his 18.2° figure last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ozzie Albies in the 80th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Austin Riley ranks as the 16th-best batter in the majors.

Austin Riley is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Austin Riley will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Austin Riley has made notable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 15% rate last year to 20.7% this season.

Recording 98.8 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Grant Holmes ranks in the 97th percentile.

Grant Holmes is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #24 HR venue among all parks today.

Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher metrics in all categories, and Grant Holmes will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Cincinnati Reds bats as a unit rank in the cellar of Major League Baseball this year ( 3rd-worst) in regard to their 88.4-mph average exit velocity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Grant Holmes in the 79th percentile as it relates to his strikeout ability.

Grant Holmes has compiled a 24.9% K% since the start of last season, placing in the 78th percentile.

Nick Allen hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Extreme groundball batters like Nick Allen are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Greene.

Nick Allen will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Michael Harris II ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Greene throws from, Michael Harris II will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Michael Harris II will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.313) implies that Michael Harris II has had some very poor luck this year with his .240 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

TJ Friedl is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.

TJ Friedl will hold the platoon advantage against Grant Holmes in today’s matchup.

Spencer Steer is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Spencer Steer has made notable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 9.1% seasonal rate to 21.1% in the last week.

Compared to his seasonal average of 15.8°, Spencer Steer has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 29.3° angle over the past week.

Spencer Steer’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (15.5°) is quite a bit higher than his 11.5° figure last season.

When estimating his strikeout ability, Hunter Greene projects as the 5th-best starter in Major League Baseball right now, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Hunter Greene is projected to throw 100 pitches in today’s matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the most of all pitchers on the slate.

Hunter Greene was in good form in his last outing and accumulated 8 strikeouts.

Hunter Greene’s 98.5-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 100th percentile out of all SPs.

Among all starters, Hunter Greene’s fastball spin rate of 2432 rpm is in the 86th percentile this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s assessment, Hunter Greene’s overall pitching talent ranks in the 92nd percentile among all starting pitchers in the majors currently.

Hunter Greene is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #24 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.

In his last GS, Hunter Greene was firing on all cylinders and allowed 2 ER.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Matt McLain is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

Matt McLain hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Despite posting a .264 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Matt McLain has suffered from bad luck given the .069 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .333.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Negative Match Player Stats with Reds vs Braves Series Game 3

The #8 ballpark in the majors for suppressing home runs to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.

Elly De La Cruz will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

In the last week’s worth of games, Elly De La Cruz’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal mark of 96.5 mph to 75.8 mph.

There has been a significant decline in Elly De La Cruz’s launch angle from last year’s 9.7° to 4.7° this year.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 4.7°, Elly De La Cruz has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-0.3°) in the past two weeks.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.223) suggests that Elly De La Cruz has been lucky this year with his .261 actual batting average.

Alex Verdugo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 2nd-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Alex Verdugo’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 89.8-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 85.1-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 11.6°, Alex Verdugo has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-4.8°) in the past 14 days.

Alex Verdugo’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, falling from 12.1% to 7.7%.

Sporting a 11.400 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Alex Verdugo grades out in the 20th percentile for power.

Alex Verdugo has notched a .269 BABIP since the start of last season, grading out in the 21st percentile.

Tyler Stephenson is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game.

Grant Holmes will hold the platoon advantage against Tyler Stephenson in today’s game.

Tyler Stephenson will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Tyler Stephenson has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .342 mark is significantly inflated relative to his .306 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Truist Park profiles as the #23 park in the league for right-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Gavin Lux today.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.319) suggests that Gavin Lux has experienced some positive variance this year with his .357 actual wOBA.

Using Statcast metrics, Gavin Lux is in the 19th percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 11.000.

Gavin Lux has averaged 10.1 dingers per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, grading out in the 16th percentile for power.

Hitting from the same side that Hunter Greene throws from, Sean Murphy has a tough challenge in today’s game.

Sean Murphy pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 2nd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

In the last 7 days, Sean Murphy’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 16.3% down to 0%.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.310) suggests that Sean Murphy has had some very good luck this year with his .351 actual wOBA.

Using Statcast metrics, Sean Murphy ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .202.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (21.6) implies that Sean Murphy has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his 29.4 actual HR/600.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Fraley in the 17th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

Jake Fraley is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jake Fraley today.

Jake Fraley has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 5.6% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past two weeks.

Jake Fraley’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last year to this one, decreasing from 41.3% to 34.5%.

Jake Fraley’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off lately, going from 34.5% on the season to 13.3% over the last 14 days.

Eli White is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

In the majors, Truist Park’s left field fences are the 2nd-deepest.

Hunter Greene will hold the platoon advantage over Eli White in today’s matchup.

In the past week’s worth of games, Eli White’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal average of 91.2 mph to 84.5 mph.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 4.4°, Eli White has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-0.3°) over the last two weeks.

When assessing his home run skill, Santiago Espinal ranks in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Santiago Espinal is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today.

Hitting from the same side that Grant Holmes throws from, Santiago Espinal will have a disadvantage in today’s game.

Santiago Espinal will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Santiago Espinal’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 87.1-mph figure last season has fallen off to 84.9-mph.

Hunter Greene will have the handedness advantage against Marcell Ozuna in today’s matchup.

Marcell Ozuna pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.6% — 86th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-deepest LF fences today.

Marcell Ozuna’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 98.2-mph EV last season has lowered to 96.1-mph.

Marcell Ozuna’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, falling from 16.6% to 13.5%.

Marcell Ozuna’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased of late, going from 13.5% on the season to 10% in the last 14 days.

Ozzie Albies’s BABIP skill is projected in the 14th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ozzie Albies is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

The switch-hitting Ozzie Albies will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side (0) today against Hunter Greene,Typically, bats like Ozzie Albies who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Hunter Greene.

Ozzie Albies’s average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 88.4-mph EV last season has lowered to 85.9-mph.

Hunter Greene will hold the platoon advantage over Austin Riley today.

In terms of plate discipline, Austin Riley’s skill is quite weak, sporting a 5.98 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 8th percentile.

It is scheduled that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Alan Porter) calling pitches today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 4th-best stadium in the game for base hits.

Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Grant Holmes (33.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 GB hitters in Cincinnati’s projected batting order.

Grant Holmes has had some very good luck with his ERA this year; his 4.24 mark is a good deal lower than his 5.20 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Allen in the 4th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

Nick Allen is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in today’s game.

Hunter Greene will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Allen in today’s matchup.

Nick Allen’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off lately; his 83-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 79-mph in the past 14 days.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Nick Allen’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (-11.1°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 1.3°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Allen in the 7th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Michael Harris II is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.

Michael Harris II has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 2nd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Michael Harris II has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 7.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last 7 days.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Michael Harris II’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal mark of 90.8 mph to 85.8 mph.

Michael Harris II’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off in recent games, going from 15% on the season to 7.1% over the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects TJ Friedl in the 8th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

TJ Friedl will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

TJ Friedl’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 87.4-mph seasonal average has dropped to 83.8-mph over the past week.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, TJ Friedl’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (2.3°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 6.4°.

TJ Friedl’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, falling from 18.8% to 13.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects TJ Friedl in the 16th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Batting from the same side that Grant Holmes throws from, Spencer Steer encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 2nd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Spencer Steer will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Grading out in the 9th percentile, Spencer Steer has posted a .252 BABIP since the start of last season.

Playing on the road typically lowers pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Hunter Greene today.

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Hunter Greene has utilized his fastball a lot this year, though: 58.7% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.

It may be sensible to expect positive regression for the Atlanta Braves offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 10th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

Hitting from the same side that Grant Holmes throws from, Matt McLain will have a tough matchup today.

Matt McLain will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

In the past week’s worth of games, Matt McLain’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.9% down to 0%.

Matt McLain has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.9-mph dropping to 87.4-mph in the past week.

In the past 14 days, Matt McLain’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (15.2°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 23.6°.

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