Todays Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Boston at Baltimore Matchup Today

The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 84, °, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Dominic Smith will have the handedness advantage over Zach Eflin in today’s game.

Dominic Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Dominic Smith has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph to 93.1-mph in the past week.

Dominic Smith’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 16.9% to 20.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 75th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Connor Wong is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #9 ballpark in MLB for righty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 14th-strongest infield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Mountcastle in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Ryan Mountcastle has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.8%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s shallowest RF fences today.

Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Ryan Mountcastle will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Ramon Urias has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest RF fences today.

Hitters such as Ramon Urias with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Nick Pivetta who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Ramon Urias will hold that advantage today.

Ramon Urias has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 88-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Santander in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

Anthony Santander is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.

Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Anthony Santander will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

Among all parks, Oriole Park at Camden Yards’s right field fences are the shallowest.

Jackson Holliday will have the handedness advantage over Nick Pivetta in today’s matchup.

Bats such as Jackson Holliday with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Nick Pivetta who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Zach Eflin in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall pitching talent level.

Zach Eflin has averaged 17.6 outs per outing this year, placing in the 87th percentile.

The underlying talent of the Boston Red Sox projected batting order today (.316 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .330 wOBA this year.

The Boston Red Sox have been the luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward, Adley Rutschman, the Orioles’s expected catcher today, projects as a good pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

When estimating his BABIP ability, Colton Cowser is projected as the 19th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Colton Cowser is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Colton Cowser will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Colton Cowser will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O’Hearn in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Ryan O’Hearn is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

The #9 stadium in the game for boosting BABIP to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Ryan O’Hearn will have an edge today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.

Adley Rutschman pulls many of his flyballs (33.3% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Adley Rutschman will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 89th percentile when estimating his home run skill.

Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

Wilyer Abreu will have the handedness advantage against Zach Eflin in today’s matchup.

Wilyer Abreu hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

When assessing his home run talent, Cedric Mullins II ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Cedric Mullins II will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta today.

Cedric Mullins II pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.2% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Cedric Mullins II will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Mountcastle in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Cedric Mullins II has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 93.5-mph average over the last week to his seasonal mark of 90-mph.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ceddanne Rafaela’s BABIP skill is projected in the 82nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ceddanne Rafaela has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Checking in at the 97th percentile, Connor Wong has posted a .360 BABIP this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 15th-best batter in Major League Baseball.

Rafael Devers is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.

Rafael Devers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zach Eflin in today’s game.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Wong, Wilyer Abreu, Romy Gonzalez).

Zach Eflin will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to boost all of his metrics across the board.

In his previous GS, Zach Eflin turned in a great performance and put up 7 strikeouts.

Zach Eflin has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his strikeouts this year, compiling a 7.24 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.85 — a 0.62 K/9 difference.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran as the 10th-best hitter in the majors as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Jarren Duran is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.

Jarren Duran will hold the platoon advantage against Zach Eflin in today’s matchup.

Ryan Mountcastle has recorded a .268 Expected Batting Average this year, grading out in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Gunnar Henderson projects as the 18th-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Gunnar Henderson is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Gunnar Henderson will have an advantage in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Gunnar Henderson will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, David Hamilton will have the upper hand in today’s game.

David Hamilton has made significant strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 5.6% seasonal rate to 11.8% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Nick Sogard pulls many of his flyballs (36.1% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 13th-strongest infield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles.

It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the Baltimore Orioles offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 10th-luckiest offense in the league this year.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #29 stadium in the game for walks, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #23 HR venue in the majors in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Masataka Yoshida is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have an edge in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Ryan O’Hearn will hold that advantage in today’s game.

In the past week, Rafael Devers’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 14.4% down to 9.1%.

Grading out in the 81st percentile, Connor Wong has posted a .343 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

In the past week, Anthony Santander’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.2% up to 25%.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jackson Holliday ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Jarren Duran ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

In the last week’s worth of games, Jarren Duran’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.8% up to 20%.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Ryan O’Hearn ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nick Pivetta in the 94th percentile as it relates to his strikeout ability.

Nick Pivetta’s slider usage has jumped by 12.3% from last season to this one (17.4% to 29.7%) .

Checking in at the 91st percentile, Nick Pivetta has notched a 27.8% K% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

David Hamilton’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, increasing from 18% on the season to 29.4% in the past 14 days.

Thursday player match stat slumps with Red Sox vs Orioles Matchup

Dominic Smith is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

This year, Dominic Smith has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 23% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

The #1 park in the league for suppressing home runs to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Among all major league stadiums, the 9th-tallest fence height (on average) are at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Dominic Smith will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

The deepest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Batting from the same side that Zach Eflin throws from, Connor Wong will be at a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Connor Wong today.

Over the past 7 days, Connor Wong’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.1% up to 11.1%.

Connor Wong has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph to 88.9-mph in the last week.

Ryan Mountcastle has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (83% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Hitting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Ryan Mountcastle faces a tough challenge today.

The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 4th-strongest out of every team on the slate today.

In the past 14 days, Ryan Mountcastle’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9% down to 0%.

In the last 14 days, Ryan Mountcastle’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal EV of 93.9 mph to 79.1 mph.

Ramon Urias is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card today.

11% of the time that Ramon Urias has started against a northpaw this year, he has been pinch hit for.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #28 venue in baseball for right-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Nick Pivetta will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ramon Urias in today’s game.

Typically, bats like Anthony Santander who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Nick Pivetta.

In terms of his home runs, Anthony Santander has had positive variance on his side this year. His 43.5 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 35.4.

Jackson Holliday is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game.

In the last 7 days, Jackson Holliday’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 17% down to 7.1%.

The Boston Red Sox have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Zach Eflin in this game.

Zach Eflin has relied on his curveball 8.6% less often this season (17.9%) than he did last season (26.5%).

Zach Eflin’s 91.1-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 15th percentile out of all starters.

Colton Cowser has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s deepest LF fences today.

Colton Cowser’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 90.7-mph seasonal average has lowered to 85.6-mph over the last two weeks.

This year, Ryan O’Hearn has been pulled from the game early in 18% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound.

Ryan O’Hearn has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s deepest LF fences today.

Over the past week, Ryan O’Hearn’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal figure of 93.1 mph to 83.1 mph.

In the last 14 days, Ryan O’Hearn’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (5.9°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 14.5°.

Ramon Urias’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last season to this one, going from 43.5% to 34.4%.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the dish, Adley Rutschman will bat from his weak side against Nick Pivetta in this game.

In the past two weeks, Adley Rutschman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.3% down to 0%.

Wilyer Abreu has been pinch hit for 29% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Wilyer Abreu today.

Wilyer Abreu has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 13.1% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the last 7 days.

Cedric Mullins II is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.

As it relates to his home runs, Cedric Mullins II has experienced some positive variance this year. His 19.9 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 15.4.

By putting up a .284 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Cedric Mullins II is positioned in the 17th percentile for offensive skills.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cedric Mullins II in the 9th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Over the past week, Wilyer Abreu’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 19.2%.

Wilyer Abreu has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .267 BA is quite a bit higher than his .226 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Ceddanne Rafaela is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Zach Eflin will hold the platoon advantage against Ceddanne Rafaela in today’s game.

Ceddanne Rafaela will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Today, Rafael Devers is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.3% rate (79th percentile).

Rafael Devers will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Rafael Devers has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 94-mph dropping to 91.6-mph in the last 14 days.

Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.1%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jarren Duran in today’s game.

Jarren Duran’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased in recent games, falling from 14.1% on the season to 0% in the past week.

Adley Rutschman’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined in recent games; his 90.3-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 81-mph in the past 14 days.

Posting a .219 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Cedric Mullins II has performed in the 11th percentile.

Cedric Mullins II has notched a .257 BABIP this year, grading out in the 14th percentile.

Ceddanne Rafaela has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.6% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past week.

Ceddanne Rafaela’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased recently; his 93-mph seasonal average has fallen to 80.1-mph in the last two weeks.

Gunnar Henderson has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Over the past week, Gunnar Henderson’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.2% down to 5.3%.

Over the past week, Gunnar Henderson’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal mark of 95.5 mph to 88 mph.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, David Hamilton ranks in the 23rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

David Hamilton is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, David Hamilton has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 20% of the time.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Sogard in the 12th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Nick Sogard is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.

The switch-hitting Nick Sogard will be less advantaged while batting from his bad side (0) today against Zach Eflin, Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Nick Sogard in today’s game.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.355) may lead us to conclude that Rafael Devers has been very fortunate this year with his .395 actual wOBA.

The Baltimore Orioles projected offense grades out as the 2nd-strongest of the day in terms of overall hitting ability.

Connor Wong, the Red Sox’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, profiles as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Considering that groundball hitters hold a notable edge over flyball pitchers, Nick Pivetta and his 38.7% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a hard position in today’s outing matching up with 1 opposing GB batters.

Playing on the road generally lowers pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Nick Pivetta today.

12% of the time that Masataka Yoshida has started against a right-handed pitcher this year, he has been pulled from the game early.

Playing on the road typically diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Masataka Yoshida in today’s game.

Masataka Yoshida’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 88.1-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 83-mph in the past week.

Gunnar Henderson’s launch angle recently (3.3° over the last 7 days) is quite a bit lower than his 8.4° seasonal figure.

Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for David Hamilton today.

In the past week’s worth of games, David Hamilton’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal figure of 87.4 mph to 76 mph.

Masataka Yoshida’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, rising from 13% on the season to 25% over the past 7 days.

Masataka Yoshida has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .287 rate is quite a bit higher than his .264 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Santander in the 2nd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Jackson Holliday’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 90.5-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 86.6-mph over the past week.

Nick Pivetta’s fastball velocity over his last 3 starts (92.3 mph) has been significantly lower than than his seasonal rate (93.4 mph).

Anthony Santander has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .354 figure is a fair amount higher than his .338 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Anthony Santander has recorded a .228 BABIP this year, ranking in the 4th percentile.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 12.5°, Dominic Smith has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-7°) over the last 14 days.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.218) implies that Dominic Smith has been lucky this year with his .239 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Sogard in the 17th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Over the last two weeks, Nick Sogard has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

Jarren Duran has been lucky this year, compiling a .361 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .334 — a .027 disparity.