Red Sox @ D-Backs Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positives for the Boston Red Sox Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 80th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Chase Field profiles as the #2 field in baseball for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 4th-best for hitting of all games today.

Ceddanne Rafaela has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 88.8-mph average to last season’s 86.6-mph EV.

In terms of his home runs, Ceddanne Rafaela has been unlucky this year. His 18.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 23.7.

Adrian Del Castillo is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best field in the game for lefty batting average.

Adrian Del Castillo will hold the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today’s matchup… and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split.

Extreme flyball bats like Adrian Del Castillo tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

Adrian Del Castillo will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Tyler Locklear will hold that advantage today.

Tyler Locklear has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 6.6% seasonal rate to 12.5% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Tyler Locklear’s BABIP ability is projected in the 75th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 91st percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

Masataka Yoshida is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 76th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Masataka Yoshida will have the handedness advantage against Ryne Nelson today.

In the last week, Masataka Yoshida’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.8% up to 20%.

Ketel Marte projects as the 10th-best batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ketel Marte is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.

Ketel Marte will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

When it comes to his home run talent, Trevor Story ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Trevor Story is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

Trevor Story has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.3-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 91.1-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 81st percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Alex Bregman ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Alex Bregman is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.

Alex Bregman has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.2-mph average to last season’s 90.9-mph EV.

Nathaniel Lowe’s BABIP talent is projected in the 75th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Nathaniel Lowe is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.

Nathaniel Lowe will have the handedness advantage against Ryne Nelson today.

Nathaniel Lowe has made significant strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 7.5% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the last 7 days.

Nathaniel Lowe’s launch angle of late (19.5° in the past week’s worth of games) is considerably higher than his 9.9° seasonal mark.

Geraldo Perdomo is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Geraldo Perdomo will hold that advantage today.

Compared to last season, Geraldo Perdomo has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 13% to 19.8% this season.

With a .359 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Geraldo Perdomo has performed in the 89th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Gabriel Moreno ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Gabriel Moreno will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Gabriel Moreno’s launch angle in recent games (28.9° in the past two weeks) is quite a bit better than his 14.5° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Given Brayan Bello’s large platoon split, Jake McCarthy will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.

Jake McCarthy will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Jake McCarthy has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 91-mph average to last season’s 87.1-mph EV.

Jake McCarthy’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 13.4% to 17.9%.

Jake McCarthy’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

Jarren Duran is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

Jarren Duran will hold the platoon advantage against Ryne Nelson in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

In terms of his home runs, Jarren Duran has been unlucky this year. His 13.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.1.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez as the 12th-best batter in the game when assessing his BABIP talent.

Romy Gonzalez has notched a .304 batting average this year, grading out in the 97th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez in the 77th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Romy Gonzalez has compiled a .490 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year, checking in at the 89th percentile.

Blaze Alexander is penciled in 4th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

Blaze Alexander will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

The Barrel% of Blaze Alexander has significantly improved, with an increase from 3.4% last year to 13.8% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Blaze Alexander in the 95th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Because of Brayan Bello’s large platoon split, Alek Thomas will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today’s matchup.

Alek Thomas will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Alek Thomas’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 12.5% on the season to 17.6% in the past 14 days.

Alek Thomas has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 11.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is deflated compared to his 14.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The #3 field in the game for boosting batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

As a result of his large platoon split, Brayan Bello will be in a tough position facing 6 hitters in the projected batting order of opposing handedness in this game.

Brayan Bello will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Brayan Bello’s 94.6-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.1-mph drop off from last season’s 95.7-mph mark.

Recording 94.6 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Brayan Bello ranks in the 90th percentile.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Locklear, Blaze Alexander, Adrian Del Castillo).

Because groundball pitchers have a significant advantage over groundball hitters, Brayan Bello and his 49.7% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable spot in this matchup facing 3 opposing GB hitters.

Brayan Bello has gone to his sinker 6.3% less often this year (34%) than he did last season (40.3%).

Brayan Bello has experienced some negative variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, compiling a 6.87 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.89 — a 1.01 K/9 gap.

Nate Eaton has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 93.7-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal average of 90-mph.

In the last week, Nate Eaton’s 42.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 21.9%.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Corbin Carroll is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.

Given Brayan Bello’s large platoon split, Corbin Carroll will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.

The Boston Red Sox have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nate Eaton, Carlos Narvaez, Romy Gonzalez, Trevor Story).

Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher stats in all categories, and Ryne Nelson will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Ryne Nelson’s 95-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 81st percentile out of all starters.

Ryne Nelson has been one of the luckiest hurlers in baseball on balls in play this year with a .245 BABIP and figures to see that luck normalize going forward.

Boston’s 90.4-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in the league: #3 overall.

In the past two weeks, Carlos Narvaez’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.3-mph over the course of the season to 94.9-mph lately.

Negatives with the Arizona Diamondbacks Game Today

Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to bat 8th in the lineup today.

The league’s 10th-highest fences can be found at Chase Field.

Hitting from the same side that Ryne Nelson throws from, Ceddanne Rafaela will have a tough challenge in today’s game.

Today, Ceddanne Rafaela is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.1% rate (90th percentile).

Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ceddanne Rafaela in today’s matchup.

The #6 stadium in the majors for suppressing home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adrian Del Castillo in the 18th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

When starting against a northpaw this year, Adrian Del Castillo has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 17% of the time.

Chase Field has the 3rd-deepest CF fences among all stadiums.

The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the best out of all the teams in action today.

The #6 ballpark in Major League Baseball for suppressing home runs to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Adrian Del Castillo has had some very good luck this year. His .281 mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .222.

Boston’s #1-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Adrian Del Castillo, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

Tyler Locklear is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game.

Considering Brayan Bello’s large platoon split, Tyler Locklear will be at a massive disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in this game.

Over the past two weeks, Tyler Locklear’s 25% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 34.4%.

Masataka Yoshida has been pulled from the game early 12% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.

Masataka Yoshida will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Masataka Yoshida’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, falling from 15.5% to 7.8%.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Ketel Marte will face a mismatch against Brayan Bello and his large platoon split in today’s matchup.

In today’s game, Ketel Marte is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.9% rate (91st percentile).

Ketel Marte’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 94-mph figure last season has lowered to 90.6-mph.

Ketel Marte’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off recently, going from 15.6% on the season to 6.7% in the last 7 days.

Batting from the same side that Ryne Nelson throws from, Trevor Story faces a tough challenge today.

Trevor Story has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Trevor Story in today’s game.

In the past 7 days, Trevor Story’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.5% down to 0%.

Ryne Nelson will have the handedness advantage against Alex Bregman in today’s matchup.

Alex Bregman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Alex Bregman is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#2-best on the slate).

Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Alex Bregman in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Nathaniel Lowe in today’s game.

Over the last 14 days, Nathaniel Lowe’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal figure of 92 mph to 83.4 mph.

Sporting a .302 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Nathaniel Lowe is ranked in the 23rd percentile for hitting ability.

When assessing his home run skill, Geraldo Perdomo ranks in the 16th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

In the past two weeks, Geraldo Perdomo’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal figure of 89.1 mph to 83.4 mph.

Geraldo Perdomo’s BABIP talent is projected in the 20th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Over the past 14 days, Geraldo Perdomo’s 30.8% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 44.9%.

Gabriel Moreno is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game.

Brayan Bello will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Gabriel Moreno in today’s game… and it’s an even bigger mismatch considering Bello’s large platoon split.

Today, Gabriel Moreno is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39.7% rate (98th percentile).

Gabriel Moreno has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake McCarthy in the 9th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

Jake McCarthy is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Jake McCarthy has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 16% of the time when starting against a northpaw this year.

Typically, hitters like Jake McCarthy who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Brayan Bello.

Jarren Duran will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

In the last 7 days, Jarren Duran’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.9% down to 0%.

Jarren Duran’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 92-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 88.2-mph over the past 14 days.

Romy Gonzalez is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Ryne Nelson throws from, Romy Gonzalez has a tough challenge in today’s game.

In today’s matchup, Romy Gonzalez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.3% rate (93rd percentile).

Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Romy Gonzalez in today’s matchup.

Brayan Bello will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Blaze Alexander today… and it’s an even bigger mismatch considering Bello’s large platoon split.

Blaze Alexander has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

Extreme flyball bats like Blaze Alexander tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Blaze Alexander’s true offensive skill to be a .300, providing some evidence that he has had some very good luck this year given the .041 difference between that mark and his actual .341 wOBA.

Alek Thomas is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

This year, Alek Thomas has been pulled from the game early in 10% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

Typically, hitters like Alek Thomas who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Brayan Bello.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s evaluation, Brayan Bello’s overall pitching talent is in the 77th percentile out of all SPs in MLB currently.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season,Chase Field profiles as the #24 park in the game for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nate Eaton in the 9th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

Nate Eaton is projected to hit 9th in the lineup today.

Ryne Nelson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nate Eaton in today’s game.

Today, Nate Eaton is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39% rate (88th percentile).

Corbin Carroll pulls many of his flyballs (33.5% — 79th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Despite posting a .376 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Corbin Carroll has had some very good luck given the .015 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .361.

Ryne Nelson didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking hitters out in his last game started and compiled 2 Ks.

Ryne Nelson has utilized his four-seam fastball 8.1% more often this year (64.1%) than he did last season (56%).

It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Boston Red Sox offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 8th-luckiest offense in the league this year.

Carlos Narvaez is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Batting from the same side that Ryne Nelson throws from, Carlos Narvaez will be at a disadvantage in today’s game.

Carlos Narvaez will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Latest Arizona Diamondbacks Matches

• Texas Rangers at Arizona Dbacks Odds MLB – Saturday 12th 2026
• Rangers vs D-Backs match player stats | 2026 Series Game 2 Saturday, September 12th
• Texas Rangers at Arizona Dbacks Odds MLB – Friday 11th 2026
• Rangers vs D-Backs match player stats | 2026 Friday, September 11th
• Arizona Dbacks at Kansas City Royals Odds MLB – Wednesday 9th 2026
• D-Backs vs Royals match player stats | 2026 Series Game 3 Wednesday, September 9th
• Arizona Dbacks at Kansas City Royals Odds MLB – Tuesday 8th 2026
• D-Backs vs Royals match player stats | 2026 Series Game 2 Tuesday, September 8th
• Arizona Dbacks at Kansas City Royals Odds MLB – Monday 7th 2026
• D-Backs vs Royals match player stats | 2026 Monday, September 7th

Latest Boston Red Sox Matches

• Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox Odds MLB – Saturday 12th 2026
• Royals vs Red Sox match player stats | 2026 Series Game 2 Saturday, September 12th
• Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox Odds MLB – Friday 11th 2026
• Royals vs Red Sox match player stats | 2026 Friday, September 11th
• Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox Odds MLB – Wednesday 9th 2026
• Angels vs Red Sox match player stats | 2026 Series Game 3 Wednesday, September 9th
• Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox Odds MLB – Tuesday 8th 2026
• Angels vs Red Sox match player stats | 2026 Series Game 2 Tuesday, September 8th
• Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox Odds MLB – Monday 7th 2026
• Angels vs Red Sox match player stats | 2026 Monday, September 7th

---