Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Rays vs Mets Series Game 3 Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Junior Caminero is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Junior Caminero pulls many of his flyballs (33.6% — 77th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Junior Caminero has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 11.3% seasonal rate to 18.4% in the past 14 days.

Compared to last season, Junior Caminero has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 31.5% to 37.9% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Junior Caminero has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.7-mph average to last season’s 89.5-mph average.

It is expected that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Lance Barksdale) in charge of the strike zone today.

Among all parks, Citi Field’s CF dimensions are the shallowest.

With 6 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Griffin Canning will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

Griffin Canning’s 2150-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 8th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

Griffin Canning has been lucky this year, notching a 3.22 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.55 — a 1.33 deviation.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citi Field as the 4th-best ballpark in the league for strikeouts.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Francisco Lindor is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.

Francisco Lindor will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Francisco Lindor has made big gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 8.8% seasonal rate to 17.1% over the past two weeks.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 4th-best batter in baseball.

Juan Soto is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.

Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Juan Soto will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Juan Soto will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

Brandon Nimmo is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Brandon Nimmo will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Brandon Nimmo has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Brandon Nimmo will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Pete Alonso projects as the 10th-best home run hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Pete Alonso is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Pete Alonso will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Pete Alonso has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 13.2% rate last season to 20.6% this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 14th-best batter in baseball.

Jeff McNeil has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (76% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game.

Jeff McNeil will hold the platoon advantage over Shane Baz in today’s game.

Jeff McNeil will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

In the past week, Jeff McNeil’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.9% up to 16.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 12th-best batter in the majors when it comes to his batting average skill.

Yandy Diaz is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

Yandy Diaz hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s shallowest CF fences today.

Yandy Diaz has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.5-mph to 98.9-mph in the last week.

Yandy Diaz’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (4.9°) is considerably higher than his 1.3° angle last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 89th percentile when estimating his home run skill.

Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

Brandon Lowe will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Griffin Canning today.

The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 85th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (42.6% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Bats such as Danny Jansen with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Griffin Canning who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Over the past week, Danny Jansen’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.2% up to 25%.

Compared to his seasonal average of 23.1°, Danny Jansen has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 36.7° figure in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Danny Jansen in the 78th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Danny Jansen has exhibited favorable plate discipline this year, grading out in the 75th percentile with a 1.82 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Lowe in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Josh Lowe is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Griffin Canning throws from, Josh Lowe will have the upper hand today.

The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Josh Lowe stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

Josh Lowe has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Taylor Walls has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Taylor Walls has suffered from bad luck this year. His .258 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .278.

Taylor Walls’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (24.3° over the past two weeks) is considerably better than his 10.2° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 83rd percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Francisco Alvarez will hold that advantage today.

Francisco Alvarez has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.6-mph average to last year’s 88.7-mph figure.

In the last week’s worth of games, Francisco Alvarez’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.9-mph over the course of the season to 109.2-mph in recent games.

Francisco Alvarez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, rising from 17.1% on the season to 33.3% over the past week.

Brett Baty will have the handedness advantage against Shane Baz today.

Brett Baty has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Brett Baty will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

Brett Baty has made notable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 5.5% rate last year to 15.2% this season.

Compared to his seasonal average of 7.9°, Brett Baty has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 31.4° figure in the past 7 days.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s appraisal, Shane Baz’s overall pitching skill ranks in the 75th percentile out of all starters in the league right now.

The New York Mets have been the 6th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward,Given his reverse platoon split, Shane Baz will benefit from facing 6 bats in the projected offense of the opposite hand in today’s game.

Considering that flyball batters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Shane Baz (43.7% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 FB hitters in the opposing club’s projected offense.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

Jonathan Aranda will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Griffin Canning in today’s matchup.

Jonathan Aranda is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.

Jake Mangum has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 91st percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Kameron Misner will have the handedness advantage against Griffin Canning in today’s matchup.

The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kameron Misner has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

Kameron Misner has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Negative Match Player Stats with Rays vs Mets Series Game 3

Citi Field profiles as the #29 venue in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Built just 13 feet above sea level, Citi Field has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.

The weather report predicts the 2nd-best pitching conditions of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

Griffin Canning will hold the platoon advantage over Junior Caminero in today’s game.

Typically, batters like Junior Caminero who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Griffin Canning.

Citi Field profiles as the #29 field in baseball for right-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Junior Caminero in today’s game.

Francisco Alvarez, the Mets’s expected catcher today, projects as a good pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Citi Field grades out as the #29 stadium in the league for batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Given that groundball batters face a disadvantage against groundball pitchers, Griffin Canning (43.3% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 3 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected lineup.

Griffin Canning has tallied 14.8 outs per game per started this year, ranking in the 23rd percentile.

As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the plate, Francisco Lindor will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side against Shane Baz in today’s game.

Francisco Lindor’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last season to this one, going from 44.4% to 38.8%.

In terms of his home runs, Francisco Lindor has had positive variance on his side this year. His 27.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 23.3.

Citi Field ranks as the #29 stadium in MLB for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

This year, Juan Soto’s Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 20% last year to just 14.8% this year.

Brandon Nimmo’s average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 92.5-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 90.2-mph in the last week.

Posting a .252 BABIP this year, Brandon Nimmo is positioned in the 14th percentile.

Brandon Nimmo has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 29.3 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit higher than his 24.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Shane Baz will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Pete Alonso in today’s matchup.

Pete Alonso has been lucky this year, posting a .414 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .367 — a .047 deviation.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeff McNeil in the 16th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

This year, Jeff McNeil has been pinch hit for in 18% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.

Jeff McNeil has been lucky this year, compiling a .380 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .307 — a .073 disparity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeff McNeil in the 17th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Batting from the same side that Griffin Canning throws from, Yandy Diaz will not have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Extreme groundball bats like Yandy Diaz usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Griffin Canning.

Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Yandy Diaz today.

Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Brandon Lowe today.

Brandon Lowe has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91.8-mph dropping to 86.4-mph in the past week.

Brandon Lowe has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 30.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is significantly inflated relative to his 25.7 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Danny Jansen in the 1st percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Danny Jansen is penciled in 7th in the lineup today.

Griffin Canning will hold the platoon advantage over Danny Jansen in today’s matchup.

Danny Jansen will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Josh Lowe will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Josh Lowe has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 5.8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week.

Josh Lowe’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, falling from 14.7% to 5.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Walls in the 8th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Taylor Walls is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Taylor Walls ranks in the 17th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The switch-hitting Taylor Walls will be less advantaged while batting from his bad side (0) today against Griffin Canning,Francisco Alvarez is penciled in 8th in the batting order in today’s game.

Shane Baz will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Francisco Alvarez today.

By putting up a .288 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Francisco Alvarez finds himself in the 24th percentile for offensive skills.

Brett Baty is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

Brett Baty has been pinch hit for 14% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.

Typically, hitters like Brett Baty who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Shane Baz.

The New York Mets projected offense projects as the 4th-strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.

Playing on the road typically reduces pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Shane Baz in today’s game.

Shane Baz has recorded a 5.03 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that deals with the things a pitcher can most influence) this year, grading out in the 14th percentile.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jonathan Aranda in today’s game.

Over the past two weeks, Jonathan Aranda’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.1% down to 3.6%.

Despite posting a .383 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jonathan Aranda has had some very good luck given the .053 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .330.

When it comes to his home run ability, Jake Mangum ranks in the 3rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jake Mangum is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Jake Mangum will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side against Griffin Canning in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kameron Misner in the 4th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Kameron Misner is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this game.

Kameron Misner has been pinch hit for 24% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kameron Misner in the 17th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

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