Rays @ Cardinals Series Game 3 2025 WorldSeries Matchup Details

Positives for the Tampa Bay Rays World Series Game 3 Game Today

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 5th-best hitting conditions of all games on the slate.

Cedric Mullins has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.

Given Dustin May’s huge platoon split, Cedric Mullins will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.

The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cedric Mullins can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

Cedric Mullins’s 23.5° launch angle (an advanced standard to measure a hitter’s ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the highest in baseball: 99th percentile.

The 4th-worst projected lineup of all teams today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in the game since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward,Nestor Ceja grades out as a Huge Pitchers Umpire and is scheduled to be umping in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Busch Stadium as the worst venue in MLB for home runs.

The 2nd-deepest RF fences among all stadiums are found in Busch Stadium.

Projected catcher Pedro Pages profiles as a good pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher metrics across the board, and Dustin May will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 76th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Masyn Winn is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

Masyn Winn will hold the platoon advantage against Steven Matz today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Alec Burleson is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.

Alec Burleson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Williams in the 89th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Carson Williams hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Carson Williams and his 15.9° launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls rank in 76th percentile, among the highest in MLB since the start of last season.

Victor Scott II will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Victor Scott II has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .277 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .296 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his home run talent, Carson Williams ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Nolan Gorman is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today’s game.

Nolan Gorman will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Nolan Gorman’s 21.9° launch angle (an advanced stat to study a hitter’s ability to lift the ball for power) is among the steepest in the league: 97th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 11th-best hitter in the league when it comes to his batting average ability.

Yandy Diaz is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.

Posting a .291 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Yandy Diaz is ranked in the 95th percentile.

The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Pedro Pages).

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ivan Herrera is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

Ivan Herrera will hold the platoon advantage over Steven Matz today.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jonathan Aranda is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

Jonathan Aranda will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dustin May in today’s game… and the cherry on top, May has a huge platoon split.

With a 1.3 discrepancy between Steven Matz’s 3.05 ERA and his 4.35 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the league since the start of last season and figures to negatively regress the rest of the season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cedric Mullins in the 79th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

Masyn Winn will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Jake Fraley has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.

Jake Fraley will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dustin May in today’s game… and moreover, May has a huge platoon split.

The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Fraley can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

Jake Fraley’s 17.9° launch angle (a reliable metric to study a batter’s ability to lift the ball for power) is among the steepest in Major League Baseball: 79th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz in the 97th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

Yandy Diaz’s 93-mph average exit velocity ranks among the elite in Major League Baseball since the start of last season: 94th percentile.

Considering Dustin May’s huge platoon split, Chandler Simpson will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today’s matchup.

The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Chandler Simpson can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Chandler Simpson hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Alec Burleson will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Ivan Herrera will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 97th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

Junior Caminero is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today’s game.

Junior Caminero’s 13.9% Barrel% (an advanced metric to evaluate power) grades out in the 88th percentile since the start of last season.

When it comes to his batting average skill, Chandler Simpson is projected as the 10th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 84th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

Jordan Walker will hold the platoon advantage against Steven Matz today.

Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.2% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.243) provides evidence that Victor Scott II has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .221 actual batting average.

Ranking in the 100th percentile for Sprint Speed at 30.2 ft/sec since the start of last season, Victor Scott II is very quick.

Jordan Walker’s BABIP ability is projected in the 75th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jordan Walker will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

When assessing his home run skill, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Ranking in the 95th percentile, the hardest ball Junior Caminero has made contact with since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 116.7 mph — a reliable indication of underlying power skill.

The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jonathan Aranda can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

Jonathan Wetherholt will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Negatives with the St. Louis Cardinals World Series Game 3 Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Fortes in the 2nd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Nick Fortes is projected to hit 9th in the lineup today.

Nick Fortes has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 17% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher since the start of last season.

Dustin May will have the handedness advantage against Nick Fortes in today’s matchup… and it’s an even larger mismatch considering May’s huge platoon split.

In today’s matchup, Nick Fortes is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.2% rate (84th percentile).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cedric Mullins in the 8th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Cedric Mullins pulls many of his flyballs (39.2% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Cedric Mullins will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

Cedric Mullins has put up a .290 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 17th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Utilizing Statcast data, Cedric Mullins is in the 5th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .202.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Steven Matz to have a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.

Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium has the 4th-lowest average fence height.

Steven Matz will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Steven Matz’s high usage rate of his fastball (56.2% since the start of last season) is likely hurting his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Fortes in the 8th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Busch Stadium profiles as the #29 stadium in the majors for right-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Dustin May to be on a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 82 pitches.

Busch Stadium profiles as the #25 field in baseball for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

With a 0.39 gap between Dustin May’s 8.37 K/9 and his 7.98 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball since the start of last season as it relates to strikeouts and should see worse results in future games.

Dustin May has notched an 8.1% Swinging Strike percentage since the start of last season, grading out in the 12th percentile.

Busch Stadium has the 5th-largest outfield in the majors — generally bad for dingers.

Masyn Winn has recorded a .295 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 22nd percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Masyn Winn’s 4.8% Barrel% (a reliable stat to measure power) ranks in the 18th percentile since the start of last season.

Masyn Winn’s 89.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable stat to measure power) grades out in the 13th percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Busch Stadium as the worst park in MLB for left-handed home runs.

Steven Matz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Alec Burleson today.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.321) suggests that Alec Burleson has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his .350 actual wOBA.

Carson Williams is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game.

When starting against a right-handed pitcher since the start of last season, Carson Williams has been pinch hit for 12% of the time.

Given Dustin May’s huge platoon split, Carson Williams will be at an enormous disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish in today’s game.

Carson Williams will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Carson Williams has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season. His .245 rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .205.

As it relates to his home run ability, Victor Scott II ranks in the 17th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Victor Scott II is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in today’s game.

Steven Matz will hold the platoon advantage against Victor Scott II in today’s game.

Victor Scott II has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 8th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Steven Matz will hold the platoon advantage over Nolan Gorman in today’s matchup.

Nolan Gorman pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.9% — 87th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Using Statcast data, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 16th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .288.

Nolan Gorman has recorded a .199 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, checking in at the 3rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Considering Dustin May’s huge platoon split, Yandy Diaz will be at an enormous disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in today’s game.

Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.8%) and will be challenged by baseball’s 2nd-deepest RF fences today.

Yandy Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Yandy Diaz has been lucky in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 22.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is inflated compared to his 14.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

In today’s game, Ivan Herrera is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34% rate (80th percentile).

Ivan Herrera ranks in the 13th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (13.2% rate since the start of last season).

Jonathan Aranda pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.9% — 82nd percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Jonathan Aranda will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

When it comes to his batting average, Jonathan Aranda has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His .318 BA has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .290.

In terms of his home runs, Cedric Mullins has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His 20.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 16.9.

Masyn Winn and his 8.4° launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls rank in 18th percentile, among the lowest in the league since the start of last season.

17% of the time that Jake Fraley has started against a right-handed pitcher since the start of last season, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

Today, Jake Fraley is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.5% rate (90th percentile).

Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jake Fraley in today’s game.

Jake Fraley’s 85.1-mph average exit velocity is among the worst in the league since the start of last season: 12th percentile.

As it relates to his home run talent, Chandler Simpson ranks in the 0th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Chandler Simpson is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game.

Chandler Simpson will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

In notching a .000 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Chandler Simpson is ranked in the 0th percentile for power.

With a 4.95 FIP since the start of last season (Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA estimator that is concerned with the variables most within a pitcher’s control), Dustin May places in the 16th percentile.

In terms of his batting average, Alec Burleson has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His .293 rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .261.

Placing in the 11th percentile for Sprint Speed at 25.54 ft/sec since the start of last season, Alec Burleson is not very toolsy.

Ivan Herrera’s speed has fallen off this season. His 26.26 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.57 ft/sec now.

Dustin May will have the handedness advantage against Junior Caminero in today’s matchup… and it’s an over-sized mismatch considering May’s huge platoon split.

Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.2% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Junior Caminero today.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.334) suggests that Junior Caminero has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his .358 actual wOBA.

Since the start of last season, Chandler Simpson’s 0% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 0th percentile among his peers.

Chandler Simpson’s 84.2-mph average exit velocity is among the worst in the game since the start of last season: 1st percentile.

Chandler Simpson has done a weak job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-hit balls. His -2.6° angle is among the lowest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season (0th percentile).

Jordan Walker is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game.

Sporting a .273 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Jordan Walker finds himself in the 8th percentile for offensive ability.

Jordan Walker has done a poor job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls. His 5.8° angle is among the lowest in MLB since the start of last season (8th percentile).

Jordan Walker has posted a .257 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, grading out in the 2nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Victor Scott II in the 22nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Since the start of last season, Victor Scott II’s 4% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 13th percentile among his peers.

Utilizing Statcast data, Jordan Walker grades out in the 7th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .208.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.369) suggests that Jonathan Aranda has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his .384 actual wOBA.

Grading out in the 21st percentile, Nolan Gorman sits with a .293 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season.

Junior Caminero is in the 1st percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (35.8% rate since the start of last season).

When it comes to his home run ability, Jonathan Wetherholt ranks in the 23rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jonathan Wetherholt is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

Steven Matz will have the handedness advantage over Jonathan Wetherholt today.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Yandy Diaz has been lucky since the start of last season. His .366 mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .337.

Yandy Diaz’s 5.3° launch angle (a reliable stat to measure a batter’s ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the most groundball-inducing in the league: 3rd percentile.

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