
PHI @ MIL






Todays Series Game 3 Matchup Details
Series Game 3
Todays Game is on Wednesday, September 18th
18/09/24 19:40:00 PM EST First Pitch
Positive Match Player Stats for Phillies vs Brewers Series Game 3 Matchup Today
Brice Turang is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.
American Family Field projects as the #9 park in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
American Family Field has the 4th-lowest fence height (on average) in the league.
American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation generally leads to more offense.
Brice Turang will hold the platoon advantage against Aaron Nola today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Ortiz in the 75th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks American Family Field as the 9th-best stadium in MLB for righty home runs.
Joey Ortiz will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats.
When assessing his home run ability, Willy Adames ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Willy Adames is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.
The 8th-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in American Family Field.
When assessing his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Aaron Nola in the 88th percentile among all starters in the majors.
Recording 96.3 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Aaron Nola places him the 93rd percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles American Family Field as the 2nd-best park in the game for strikeouts.
Aaron Nola was on point in his previous GS and compiled 7 strikeouts.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Garrett Mitchell in the 96th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.
Garrett Mitchell has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (54% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.
Hitting from the opposite that Aaron Nola throws from, Garrett Mitchell will have an advantage in today’s game.
When assessing his home run ability, Jake Bauers ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Hitting from the opposite that Aaron Nola throws from, Jake Bauers will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.
When estimating his overall offensive ability, William Contreras ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
William Contreras is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.
Bryson Stott’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Bryson Stott is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today’s game.
Joey Ortiz has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 90.1-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 87.8-mph EV.
The #9 venue in the majors for boosting walks, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.
In his previous GS, Aaron Nola gave up a monstrous 6 earned runs.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Marsh as the 2nd-best hitter in baseball when it comes to his BABIP skill.
Brandon Marsh will hold the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta today.
Over the past 7 days, Brandon Marsh’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal average of 93.2 mph to 90.4 mph.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Marsh in the 76th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.
Bryce Harper projects as the 11th-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.
Trea Turner is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.
Jackson Chourio’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Jackson Chourio has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (51% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.
Hitting from the opposite that Aaron Nola throws from, Sal Frelick will have an edge today.
Sal Frelick hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Kyle Schwarber projects as the 5th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.
The 4th-best projected batting order of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.
Freddy Peralta has utilized his curveball 5.9% less often this season (6.6%) than he did last season (12.5%).
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.
In the last week’s worth of games, J.T. Realmuto’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.1% up to 22.2%.
Sal Frelick’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Sal Frelick will hold that advantage today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willy Adames in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.
Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Willy Adames will hold that advantage today.
As it relates to his batting average ability, Trea Turner is projected as the 16th-best batter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 75th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.
Brice Turang hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 89th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.
Nick Castellanos is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.
Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Jackson Chourio will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Bryson Stott ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Tallying 97.1 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Freddy Peralta ranks in the 96th percentile.
Hitting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Bryce Harper will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.
Nick Castellanos’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 15% to 18.8%.
Nick Castellanos’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased of late, rising from 48.9% on the season to 63.3% over the last 14 days.
J.T. Realmuto has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.9-mph to 93.9-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Jake Bauers will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
There has been a significant improvement in Jake Bauers’s launch angle from last season’s 13.6° to 22.6° this season.
Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and William Contreras will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
William Contreras has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.7-mph to 95.2-mph over the past 14 days.
Sporting a 1.61 K/BB rate this year, Joey Ortiz has demonstrated favorable plate discipline, checking in at the 90th percentile.
When estimating his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Freddy Peralta in the 94th percentile among all starting pitchers in baseball.
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Jackson Chourio ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.
In the past week, Trea Turner’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.9% up to 13.3%.
Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Bryson Stott will have the upper hand in today’s game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Schwarber in the 97th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.
Kyle Schwarber will have the handedness advantage over Freddy Peralta today.
Over the last 14 days, Kyle Schwarber has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 14.9% to 30%.
Negative Match Player Stats with Phillies vs Brewers Series Game 3
When it comes to his home run skill, Brice Turang ranks in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report predicts the 5th-most suitable pitching conditions on the slate.
Brice Turang’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 88.5-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 86.5-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
Last season, Brice Turang had a launch angle of 10.2° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this season he experienced a significant decline to just 3°.
Over the last two weeks, Brice Turang’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (-8.2°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 3°.
Joey Ortiz is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game.
Hitting from the same side that Aaron Nola throws from, Joey Ortiz will have a tough matchup in today’s matchup.
Joey Ortiz has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
In the past 14 days, Joey Ortiz’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (-4.9°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 6.9°.
Batting from the same side that Aaron Nola throws from, Willy Adames will have a tough matchup in today’s matchup.
Willy Adames has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.4-mph dropping to 77.7-mph in the last 7 days.
Despite posting a .343 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Willy Adames has experienced some positive variance given the .013 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .330.
Aaron Nola will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.
This year, Garrett Mitchell has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 18% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.
Garrett Mitchell has been lucky this year, putting up a .349 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .302 — a .047 disparity.
Jake Bauers is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.
This year, Jake Bauers has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 15% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound.
Jake Bauers pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.1% — 87th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
Jake Bauers has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 10.2% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
Hitting from the same side that Aaron Nola throws from, William Contreras will have a disadvantage today.
Today, William Contreras is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.1% rate (91st percentile).
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.343) provides evidence that William Contreras has experienced some positive variance this year with his .359 actual wOBA.
Out of every team on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.
Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Bryson Stott today.
Over the past week, Bryson Stott’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal figure of 89.7 mph to 85.3 mph.
Compared to his seasonal mark of 10.8°, Bryson Stott’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls has dropped significantly in recent games (6.9° in the past 14 days).
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s appraisal, Aaron Nola’s overall pitching ability ranks in the 89th percentile out of all starting pitchers in MLB currently.
It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the Milwaukee Brewers offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-luckiest offense in the majors this year.
Aaron Nola’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2376 rpm) has been significantly higher than than his seasonal rate (2308 rpm).
Checking in at the 82nd percentile, Aaron Nola has recorded a 3.95 K/BB rate this year.
Brandon Marsh is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.
Brandon Marsh will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.
Compared to his seasonal angle of 13.5°, Brandon Marsh has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (7.1°) in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brandon Marsh’s true offensive talent to be a .316, implying that he has been very fortunate this year given the .017 disparity between that mark and his actual .333 wOBA.
Bryce Harper will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.
Compared to his seasonal figure of 13.7°, Bryce Harper has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (7.1°) over the last 14 days.
Bryce Harper has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 28.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a good deal higher than his 22.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Freddy Peralta will have the handedness advantage over Trea Turner in today’s game.
Trea Turner will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.
Trea Turner’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off recently, falling from 16% on the season to 6.7% over the last week.
When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Trea Turner has had positive variance on his side this year. His .348 mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .324.
Hitting from the same side that Aaron Nola throws from, Jackson Chourio will have a tough matchup in today’s matchup.
Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.6) suggests that Jackson Chourio has been lucky this year with his 23.9 actual HR/600.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 3rd percentile when assessing his home run ability.
Sal Frelick is projected to hit 8th in the lineup today.
This year, Sal Frelick has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 16% of his appearances when starting against righty hurler.
Sal Frelick’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 85.5-mph EV last year has lowered to 83.1-mph.
Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.6% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 7th-deepest RF fences today.
Kyle Schwarber will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.
In terms of his home runs, Kyle Schwarber has had some very good luck this year. His 33.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 30.5.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Freddy Peralta in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall pitching talent.
It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the Philadelphia Phillies offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 7th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
Freddy Peralta will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats across the board.
J.T. Realmuto has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game.
Freddy Peralta will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against J.T. Realmuto in today’s matchup.
Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for J.T. Realmuto in today’s game.
J.T. Realmuto has displayed poor plate discipline this year, checking in at the 22nd percentile with a 3.75 K/BB rate.
In the last week, Sal Frelick’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal mark of 83.1 mph to 80.9 mph.
Freddy Peralta will hold the platoon advantage over Nick Castellanos today.
Nick Castellanos has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 7th-deepest RF fences today.
Nick Castellanos will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.
Jackson Chourio has been lucky this year, putting up a .343 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .327 — a .016 disparity.
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (9.3) may lead us to conclude that Bryson Stott has had some very good luck this year with his 12.3 actual HR/600.
Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.364) implies that Bryce Harper has had some very good luck this year with his .383 actual wOBA.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Bauers in the 12th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.
Over the last 14 days, William Contreras’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (4.6°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 9.6°.
Over the past two weeks, Nick Castellanos’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal average of 90.4 mph to 86.8 mph.
Despite posting a .367 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Kyle Schwarber has been very fortunate given the .013 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .354.
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