Pros

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sean Murphy in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Sean Murphy has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (91% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup.

Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to more offense.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 83°.

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 2nd-best ballpark in the league for righty batting average.

When it comes to his BABIP skill, Brandon Marsh is projected as the 4th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 2nd-best field in the game for LHB batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Alec Bohm is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.

Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Whit Merrifield will hold that advantage today.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Orlando Arcia will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Ramon Laureano ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ramon Laureano is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 13th-best hitter in the league.

Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

J.T. Realmuto has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .304 rate is a good deal lower than his .331 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Alec Bohm ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Whit Merrifield’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

When it comes to his batting average skill, Trea Turner is projected as the 16th-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Trea Turner is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

Johan Rojas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

The Atlanta Braves have been the unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future, It is scheduled that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Todd Tichenor) in charge of the strike zone in today’s game.

J.T. Realmuto, the Phillies’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, projects as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Truist Park as the 5th-best stadium in MLB for base hits.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in the league for righty batting average.

Luke Williams hits many of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarred Kelenic in the 78th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 97th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

Matt Olson is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

Truist Park has the 5th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums.

Bryson Stott is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Reynaldo Lopez throws from, Bryson Stott will have an advantage in today’s game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Schwarber ranks as the 20th-best batter in the game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 85th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Michael Harris II is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

When estimating his home run skill, Jarred Kelenic ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jarred Kelenic will hold the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

The 3rd-best projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Reynaldo Lopez in the 81st percentile when it comes to his strikeout talent.

Out of all starting pitchers, Reynaldo Lopez’s fastball velocity of 94.8 mph grades out in the 77th percentile this year.

Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Gio Urshela will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 90th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 87th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Hitting from the opposite that Reynaldo Lopez throws from, Brandon Marsh will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Brandon Marsh has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 8.5% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the past week.

As it relates to his home run ability, Ramon Laureano ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

As it relates to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Zack Wheeler in the 93rd percentile among all SPs in the majors.

Zack Wheeler has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing 8.4 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.

Among all starters, Zack Wheeler’s fastball velocity of 94.5 mph grades out in the 75th percentile this year.

Marcell Ozuna projects as the 14th-best home run hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

In the last two weeks, Johan Rojas’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 85.9-mph over the course of the season to 90.2-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gio Urshela in the 90th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Luke Williams will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Nick Castellanos’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 15% to 18.5%.

Whit Merrifield has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 83.7-mph to 86.6-mph in the past 14 days.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Matt Olson ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Cons

Hitting from the same side that Zack Wheeler throws from, Sean Murphy faces a tough challenge today.

Sean Murphy pulls many of his flyballs (35.1% — 87th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Sean Murphy has struggled with his Barrel%; his 15.9% rate last year has decreased to 10.1% this year.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.289) may lead us to conclude that Sean Murphy has been lucky this year with his .309 actual wOBA.

Nick Castellanos is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this game.

Truist Park has the 3rd-deepest left field dimensions in Major League Baseball.

Reynaldo Lopez will have the handedness advantage over Nick Castellanos in today’s matchup.

The Atlanta Braves outfield defense grades out as the 4th-best among all the teams today.

Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Nick Castellanos in today’s game.

Brandon Marsh is penciled in 8th in the lineup today.

Brandon Marsh has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Brandon Marsh in today’s game.

Brandon Marsh’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off in recent games, falling from 19.4% on the season to 0% over the last two weeks.

Reynaldo Lopez will have the handedness advantage over Alec Bohm in today’s matchup.

Alec Bohm will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

In the past 14 days, Alec Bohm’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal figure of 90.7 mph to 87.5 mph.

When assessing his home run talent, Whit Merrifield ranks in the 12th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Whit Merrifield is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this matchup.

Zack Wheeler will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Whit Merrifield in today’s game.

Whit Merrifield’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, going from 16.6% to 12.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Orlando Arcia in the 12th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Orlando Arcia is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

Zack Wheeler will hold the platoon advantage over Orlando Arcia in today’s matchup.

Orlando Arcia pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 81st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences today.

Orlando Arcia has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 5.2% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past two weeks.

Ramon Laureano has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 12% of the time when starting against a northpaw this year.

Zack Wheeler will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ramon Laureano in today’s matchup.

Ramon Laureano pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.4% — 75th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Ramon Laureano has exhibited poor plate discipline this year, placing in the 18th percentile with a 5.65 K/BB rate.

Bryce Harper has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 3rd-deepest LF fences today.

Bryce Harper will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

In the last 7 days, Bryce Harper’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.6% down to 0%.

In the last 7 days, Bryce Harper’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal EV of 94.1 mph to 84.9 mph.

J.T. Realmuto has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Reynaldo Lopez will have the handedness advantage over J.T. Realmuto in today’s matchup.

J.T. Realmuto will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

In the last week, J.T. Realmuto’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.7% down to 0%.

Despite posting a .353 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Alec Bohm has been lucky given the .026 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .327.

Checking in at the 10th percentile, Whit Merrifield has notched a .206 batting average this year.

Reynaldo Lopez will hold the platoon advantage against Trea Turner today.

Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Trea Turner in today’s matchup.

Trea Turner’s footspeed has dropped off this season. His 30.23 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.35 ft/sec now.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Johan Rojas ranks in the 17th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Johan Rojas is projected to hit 9th in the lineup today.

Johan Rojas has been pinch hit for 19% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.

Reynaldo Lopez will hold the platoon advantage over Johan Rojas today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Zack Wheeler as the 10th-best starter in MLB right now.

With 6 bats who bat from the same side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Zack Wheeler should benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.

Zack Wheeler was rolling in his last GS and conceded 1 ER.

Zack Wheeler’s change-up percentage has jumped by 7.6% from last year to this one (0.4% to 8%) .

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Luke Williams ranks in the 7th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Luke Williams is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this game.

Since the start of last season, Luke Williams has been pinch hit for in 41% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter.

Zack Wheeler will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luke Williams in today’s game.

Luke Williams has recorded a .025 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, placing in the 0th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jarred Kelenic is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game.

Jarred Kelenic has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 9.2% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week.

From last year to this one, Jarred Kelenic’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 53.3% to 45.8%.

Jarred Kelenic has exhibited bad plate discipline this year, checking in at the 18th percentile with a 4.02 K/BB rate.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Kyle Schwarber today.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 15.6°, Kyle Schwarber has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-0.3°) in the last two weeks.

From last season to this one, Kyle Schwarber’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 17.5% to 13.1%.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (28.3) suggests that Kyle Schwarber has had positive variance on his side this year with his 31.9 actual HR/600.

Matt Olson’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 93.7-mph EV last year has fallen off to 91.2-mph.

Matt Olson’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 94-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 88.9-mph in the last 14 days.

Grading out in the 21st percentile, Matt Olson has posted a .227 batting average this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 22nd percentile when estimating his home run skill.

Bryson Stott has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41%) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Bryson Stott today.

Bryson Stott’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls of late (4.8° over the past 14 days) is considerably worse than his 11.7° seasonal mark.

Bryson Stott has performed at a clip of 10.1 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 15th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

In terms of his batting average, Kyle Schwarber has been very fortunate this year. His .251 BA has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .231.

Grading out in the 18th percentile, Michael Harris II has posted a .179 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year.

Posting a 3.88 K/BB rate this year, Michael Harris II has shown poor plate discipline, ranking in the 20th percentile.

Bryce Harper’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased lately, falling from 13.4% on the season to 5.9% in the past week.

Placing in the 20th percentile, Sean Murphy sports a .272 BABIP since the start of last season.

It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Philadelphia Phillies offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 10th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

Home field advantage typically bolsters pitcher stats across the board, and Reynaldo Lopez will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Reynaldo Lopez was on point in his last GS and conceded 0 ER.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Reynaldo Lopez to throw 84 pitches in today’s game (4th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gio Urshela in the 12th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

Gio Urshela is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

Batting from the same side that Zack Wheeler throws from, Gio Urshela encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Placing in the 22nd percentile, Michael Harris II sports a .287 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

Hitting from the same side that Zack Wheeler throws from, Marcell Ozuna will have a disadvantage in today’s game.

Today, Marcell Ozuna is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.4% rate (89th percentile).

Despite posting a .409 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Marcell Ozuna has experienced some positive variance given the .060 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .349.

Brandon Marsh has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 20.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is quite a bit higher than his 17.7 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When estimating his home run ability, Johan Rojas ranks in the 6th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Marcell Ozuna’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 98.5-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 96.2-mph over the last two weeks.

Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Johan Rojas today.

Trea Turner’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls of late (6.9° over the last 14 days) is considerably lower than his 10° seasonal angle.

Trea Turner has been cold in recent games, posting a 2.4% Barrel% (an advanced stat to study power) over the past two weeks.

Grading out in the 12th percentile, Bryson Stott has posted a .255 BABIP this year.

In the last 7 days, Nick Castellanos’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.9% down to 0%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Orlando Arcia in the 25th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.