Padres vs Nationals match player stats | 2025 Friday, July 18th

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Padres vs Nationals match player stats | 2025 Friday, July 18th

SD @ WSH

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Matchup Details

San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals

Todays Game is on Friday, July 18th
18/07/25 18:45:00 PM EST First Pitch

Positive Match Player Stats for Padres vs Nationals Matchup Today

As it relates to his BABIP skill, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

James Wood is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.

This game is predicted to have the most humidity on the schedule today (75%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.

James Wood will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dylan Cease in today’s game.

James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), James Wood ranks as the 20th-best batter in the league.

Jacob Young has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

Extreme groundball batters like Jacob Young tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Dylan Cease.

Jacob Young will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.260) suggests that Jacob Young has suffered from bad luck this year with his .237 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Young in the 83rd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Jackson Merrill’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

Jackson Merrill will hold the platoon advantage against Mike Soroka today.

Jackson Merrill has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Jackson Merrill ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Brady House has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Brady House will hold that advantage today.

In the past 7 days, Brady House’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4.3% up to 22.2%.

Brady House has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 92.6-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 89.7-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brady House in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daylen Lile in the 80th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Nationals Park has the 7th-shallowest RF dimensions in Major League Baseball.

Daylen Lile will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dylan Cease today.

Daylen Lile will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Over the past 14 days, Daylen Lile has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 24.9° compared to his seasonal mark of 6.3°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

The 8th-shallowest LF fences among all stadiums are found in Nationals Park.

Compared to last year, Xander Bogaerts has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 42% to 48.3% this season.

Xander Bogaerts has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .313 mark is deflated compared to his .328 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 86th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Xander Bogaerts has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 92-mph average to last season’s 89.6-mph average.

Martin Maldonado pulls many of his flyballs (35.7% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

Martin Maldonado’s 16.9° launch angle (a reliable stat to assess a hitter’s ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the steepest in Major League Baseball: 79th percentile.

Josh Bell is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Josh Bell has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Extreme flyball bats like Josh Bell generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Dylan Cease.

Josh Bell will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Bell in the 78th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.

Manny Machado has made notable strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 13.5% seasonal rate to 25.8% in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 85th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Jake Cronenworth will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mike Soroka in today’s game.

Jake Cronenworth has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Jake Cronenworth’s 22.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.4%.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 7th-best batter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.7-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 93.1-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 80th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

Nathaniel Lowe is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Nathaniel Lowe will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.3%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Hitters such as Nathaniel Lowe with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Dylan Cease who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Luis Arraez is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Mike Soroka throws from, Luis Arraez will have an advantage in today’s game.

Luis Arraez has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

Over the last 7 days, Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 85.8-mph over the course of the season to 88.2-mph in recent games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Arraez as the 2nd-best batter in the majors as it relates to his batting average skill.

As it relates to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Mike Soroka in the 87th percentile among all SPs in baseball.

Mike Soroka will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats in all categories.

Mike Soroka’s 93.5-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.5-mph increase from last year’s 92-mph figure.

Mike Soroka’s 2529-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 94th percentile among all SPs.

Projected catcher Martin Maldonado grades out as a weak pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

With 6 bats of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Dylan Cease has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.

Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Dylan Cease (36.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 5 FB hitters in Washington’s projected lineup.

As it relates to his strikeout ability, Dylan Cease projects as the 9th-best starting pitcher in the game currently, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Tallying 94.6 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Dylan Cease checks in at the 92nd percentile.

The Washington Nationals have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Riley Adams, Brady House, James Wood).

Dylan Cease was in good form in his last start and put up 7 strikeouts.

Riley Adams has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Riley Adams will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

In the past two weeks, Riley Adams’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 97.4-mph over the course of the season to 100.4-mph in recent games.

As it relates to his batting average, Riley Adams has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .190 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .216.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Adams in the 76th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

Gavin Sheets is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today’s game.

Gavin Sheets will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mike Soroka in today’s game.

Gavin Sheets pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Gavin Sheets has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.2-mph average to last season’s 87.8-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 80th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

CJ Abrams is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.

CJ Abrams will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dylan Cease today.

CJ Abrams pulls many of his flyballs (33.2% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, CJ Abrams ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Batting from the opposite that Mike Soroka throws from, Trenton Brooks will have an edge today.

Trenton Brooks has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last year’s 24.85 ft/sec to 26.49 ft/sec now (according to Statcast’s Sprint Speed metric).

Negative Match Player Stats with Padres vs Nationals

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the 3rd-worst ballpark in MLB for boosting offensive stats to left-handed batters.

Nationals Park’s elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.

James Wood has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 34.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a good deal higher than his 27.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The #3 ballpark in the league for suppressing batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park.

James Wood has been lucky this year, posting a .386 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .363 — a .023 disparity.

As it relates to his home run ability, Jacob Young ranks in the 1st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jacob Young is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Jacob Young has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 11% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.

Nationals Park ranks as the #28 ballpark in the league for overall RHB offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Dylan Cease will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jacob Young in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Nationals Park as the 3rd-worst ballpark in the league for righty batting average.

Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jackson Merrill in today’s game.

Brady House is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

Dylan Cease will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brady House in today’s matchup.

Daylen Lile is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Daylen Lile’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 89.2-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 84.4-mph in the past 14 days.

When estimating his home run ability, Daylen Lile ranks in the 12th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

With a .278 wOBA over the last 14 days, Daylen Lile has been struggling at the plate.

Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Mike Soroka throws from, Xander Bogaerts will be in a tough position in today’s matchup.

Xander Bogaerts will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Xander Bogaerts’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off in recent games; his 92-mph seasonal average has dropped to 88.9-mph over the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Martin Maldonado in the 0th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Martin Maldonado is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this matchup.

44% of the time that Martin Maldonado has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Martin Maldonado ranks in the 1st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Mike Soroka will hold the platoon advantage against Martin Maldonado in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Bell in the 18th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Josh Bell’s launch angle recently (5.2° over the last two weeks) is quite a bit lower than his 8.9° seasonal figure.

Josh Bell’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, decreasing from 16.4% to 13.4%.

Hitting from the same side that Mike Soroka throws from, Manny Machado will have a tough challenge in today’s game.

Manny Machado will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Manny Machado’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased of late, decreasing from 47.8% on the season to 22.2% in the last week’s worth of games.

Jake Cronenworth is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

Jake Cronenworth will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

In the past 14 days, Jake Cronenworth’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal EV of 89.9 mph to 86.4 mph.

Jake Cronenworth’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 91.9-mph figure last year has fallen off to 89.9-mph.

Mike Soroka will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Fernando Tatis Jr. in today’s matchup.

Fernando Tatis Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

From last season to this one, Fernando Tatis Jr.’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 48.8% to 40.9%.

In the past 7 days, Nathaniel Lowe’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.1% down to 0%.

In the past 7 days, Nathaniel Lowe’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12.1%.

As it relates to his home runs, Nathaniel Lowe has been very fortunate this year. His 20.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 13.4.

By putting up a .290 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Nathaniel Lowe is ranked in the 20th percentile for offensive ability.

When it comes to his home run skill, Luis Arraez ranks in the 0th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Luis Arraez in today’s game.

Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 87.9-mph mark last season has fallen off to 85.8-mph.

Luis Arraez has notched a .295 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 22nd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The San Diego Padres (18.9 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy set of batters of the day.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Riley Adams (the Nationals’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) is considered to be a weak pitch framer.

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Mike Soroka has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 54.1% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.

Mike Soroka has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts this year, posting a 9.89 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.46 — a 0.43 K/9 disparity.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s appraisal, Mike Soroka’s overall pitching ability grades out in the 85th percentile among all starters in MLB right now.

Nationals Park grades out as the #25 ballpark in the league for batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Dylan Cease in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall pitching skills.

Dylan Cease is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #23 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today’s game.

Out of all starters, Dylan Cease’s fastball velocity of 96.3 mph ranks in the 92nd percentile this year.

Playing on the road typically reduces pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Dylan Cease in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Adams in the 9th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Riley Adams is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Riley Adams has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 16% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.

Dylan Cease will hold the platoon advantage against Riley Adams in today’s game.

Riley Adams’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased of late, decreasing from 10.3% on the season to 0% over the past 14 days.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Gavin Sheets in today’s matchup.

Gavin Sheets’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off lately; his 94.9-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 89.3-mph in the last two weeks.

Gavin Sheets’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, decreasing from 17.5% to 13.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Gavin Sheets’s true offensive ability to be a .316, providing some evidence that he has had some very good luck this year given the .018 disparity between that mark and his actual .334 wOBA.

CJ Abrams has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 6.7% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past 14 days.

CJ Abrams’s launch angle in recent games (9.8° over the last 14 days) is significantly lower than his 13° seasonal mark.

CJ Abrams’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (9.3°) is significantly lower than his 13.7° mark last season.

CJ Abrams has been lucky this year, posting a .360 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .322 — a .038 gap.

Trenton Brooks’s BABIP skill is projected in the 8th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Trenton Brooks is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

When starting against a northpaw this year, Trenton Brooks has been pinch hit for 52% of the time.

Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Trenton Brooks in today’s game.

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