Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Padres vs D-Backs Series Game 3 Matchup Today

It may be smart to expect improved performance for the San Diego Padres offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 9th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

It is anticipated that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Andy Fletcher) calling pitches today.

The #3 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

The Chase Field roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 6° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for offense.

Merrill Kelly has utilized his cut-fastball 6% less often this year (19.2%) than he did last year (25.2%).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Merrill Kelly in the 80th percentile when assessing his strikeout ability.

Recording 94.1 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Merrill Kelly falls in the 86th percentile.

Checking in at the 79th percentile, Merrill Kelly has put up a 25.3% strikeout rate this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 10th-best batter in MLB.

Ketel Marte is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.

Chase Field profiles as the #2 ballpark in the majors for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Ketel Marte will hold that advantage today.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Pavin Smith ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Pavin Smith will have the upper hand today.

Pavin Smith will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Pavin Smith’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, rising from 15.9% on the season to 25% in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best venue in baseball for righty batting average.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Xander Bogaerts ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Xander Bogaerts has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph to 93.3-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nick Pivetta in the 91st percentile when it comes to his strikeout skill.

Nick Pivetta has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 6 opposite-handed bats today.

Checking in at the 80th percentile, Nick Pivetta has put up a 25.4% K% this year.

Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Nick Pivetta (39.1% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in Arizona’s projected offense.

Nick Pivetta will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Eugenio Suarez projects as the 19th-best home run batter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Eugenio Suarez is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.

Eugenio Suarez will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Eugenio Suarez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.5-mph average to last year’s 92.6-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Naylor in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Josh Naylor is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Josh Naylor ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Josh Naylor will have an edge today.

Elias Diaz has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 93.9-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal average of 90.2-mph.

Elias Diaz’s launch angle this season (17.6°) is a significant increase over his 7.3° figure last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

This season, Manny Machado has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 95.4 mph compared to last year’s 93.4 mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 84th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Jake Cronenworth will hold the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly in today’s game.

Over the past 14 days, Jake Cronenworth has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 29.7° compared to his seasonal mark of 13.7°.

Jake Cronenworth has displayed good plate discipline this year, checking in at the 91st percentile with a 1.37 K/BB rate.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 8th-best batter in Major League Baseball.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has been unlucky this year, posting a .344 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .378 — a .034 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will hold that advantage today.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph to 94.7-mph in the last week.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Luis Arraez is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Luis Arraez will have an edge in today’s game.

Luis Arraez has exhibited favorable plate discipline this year, checking in at the 100th percentile with a 0.46 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Arraez as the 2nd-best batter in baseball when assessing his batting average skill.

Geraldo Perdomo is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

Geraldo Perdomo will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which should improve all of his stats.

Geraldo Perdomo has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 90.8-mph average to last year’s 88.1-mph EV.

Compared to his seasonal average of 15.8°, Geraldo Perdomo has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 27.8° angle in the last week’s worth of games.

Gavin Sheets will have the handedness advantage against Merrill Kelly in today’s game.

Gavin Sheets has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.6-mph average to last season’s 87.8-mph figure.

Gavin Sheets’s launch angle of late (23.5° in the last 7 days) is considerably better than his 17.2° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alek Thomas in the 76th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

Alek Thomas will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta today.

Extreme flyball batters like Alek Thomas are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Alek Thomas will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Alek Thomas has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 9.1% seasonal rate to 17.9% in the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Corbin Carroll is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.

Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Corbin Carroll will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Corbin Carroll will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Negative Match Player Stats with Padres vs D-Backs Series Game 3

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Merrill Kelly in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall pitching skills.

The 3rd-deepest centerfield dimensions in the majors are found in Chase Field.

In the league, the 10th-tallest fence height (on average) are at Chase Field.

Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher stats in all categories, and Merrill Kelly will hold that advantage today.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the San Diego Padres with a 17.8% underlying K%.

Chase Field grades out as the #27 venue in Major League Baseball for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation generally leads to better offense.

As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the plate, Ketel Marte will bat from his weak side against Nick Pivetta in today’s game.

Ketel Marte pulls many of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

Ketel Marte’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 94-mph EV last season has fallen to 91.4-mph.

In terms of his home runs, Ketel Marte has experienced some positive variance this year. His 40.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 30.8.

Ketel Marte has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .423 mark is quite a bit higher than his .385 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 4th-worst park in the league for lefty home runs.

Pavin Smith is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

Pavin Smith has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 34% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.

Pavin Smith has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 11.2% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past 14 days.

Over the last two weeks, Pavin Smith’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal EV of 91.2 mph to 89.2 mph.

Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Xander Bogaerts faces a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Xander Bogaerts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Xander Bogaerts will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

The #4 venue in the league for suppressing home runs to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 12.1°, Xander Bogaerts has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (7.2°) in the last 14 days.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 20.2% underlying K%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nick Pivetta in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his overall pitching talent level.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in future games,Hitting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Eugenio Suarez encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Typically, batters like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Nick Pivetta.

Over the last week, Eugenio Suarez’s 26.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 41.7%.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.321) may lead us to conclude that Eugenio Suarez has been very fortunate this year with his .346 actual wOBA.

In today’s game, Josh Naylor is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 33.7% rate (77th percentile).

From last season to this one, Josh Naylor’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 93.7 mph to 89.3 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Josh Naylor’s true offensive skill to be a .328, providing some evidence that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .028 difference between that mark and his actual .356 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elias Diaz in the 11th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Elias Diaz is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this matchup.

Merrill Kelly will have the handedness advantage over Elias Diaz in today’s matchup.

Merrill Kelly will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Manny Machado today.

Manny Machado hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Manny Machado will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Manny Machado’s launch angle recently (4.5° in the past week’s worth of games) is considerably worse than his 14.1° seasonal figure.

Jake Cronenworth is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.

Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jake Cronenworth in today’s matchup.

Jake Cronenworth’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 88.7-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 85.4-mph over the last two weeks.

Merrill Kelly will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Fernando Tatis Jr. today.

Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Fernando Tatis Jr. in today’s matchup.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 13.3% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game.

Nick Pivetta will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Lourdes Gurriel Jr. today.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (7.4°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 12.7°.

Grading out in the 13th percentile, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has put up a .249 BABIP this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Arraez in the 0th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Luis Arraez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 87.9-mph mark last year has dropped to 85.2-mph.

Over the last 14 days, Luis Arraez’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (7.5°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 10.8°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 13th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Geraldo Perdomo’s true offensive ability to be a .304, indicating that he has been lucky this year given the .034 disparity between that figure and his actual .338 wOBA.

Geraldo Perdomo has posted a .262 BABIP this year, placing in the 19th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 18th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Sheets in the 18th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Gavin Sheets is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.

Gavin Sheets pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.2% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Gavin Sheets in today’s game.

Alek Thomas is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this game.

This year, Alek Thomas has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 16% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter.

With a 5.88 K/BB rate this year, Alek Thomas has displayed bad plate discipline, placing in the 7th percentile.

Corbin Carroll has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 15.8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past 7 days.

In the past two weeks, Corbin Carroll’s 29% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 38.4%.

When it comes to his home runs, Corbin Carroll has experienced some positive variance this year. His 37.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 30.3.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Corbin Carroll’s true offensive skill to be a .358, providing some evidence that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .027 difference between that figure and his actual .385 wOBA.

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