Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Padres vs Cardinals Series Game 3 Matchup Today

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s evaluation, Randy Vasquez’s overall pitching skill is in the 5th percentile among all starters in the league right now.

Projected catcher Martin Maldonado projects as a weak pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

In the majors, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 90°.

Randy Vasquez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jordan Walker, Willson Contreras, Pedro Pages).

Randy Vasquez’s cut-fastball usage has risen by 13.2% from last season to this one (13.7% to 26.9%) .

Randy Vasquez has had some very poor luck with his strikeouts this year, compiling a 4.55 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 5.53 — a 0.99 K/9 difference.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Jackson Merrill has made substantial gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 12.9% seasonal rate to 26.1% over the last 14 days.

Jackson Merrill has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.4-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 88.9-mph average.

Victor Scott II will have the handedness advantage over Randy Vasquez today.

Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Victor Scott II will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Over the last 7 days, Victor Scott II’s 31.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Jose Iglesias will hold the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore today.

Despite posting a .261 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jose Iglesias has had some very poor luck given the .019 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .280.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Xander Bogaerts will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

Xander Bogaerts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Willson Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Willson Contreras is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today’s game.

Willson Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Willson Contreras will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Compared to his seasonal average of 19.1°, Nolan Arenado has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 23.5° angle in the past two weeks.

Posting a 1.49 K/BB rate this year, Nolan Arenado has demonstrated favorable plate discipline, grading out in the 87th percentile.

Batting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Martin Maldonado will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Martin Maldonado ranks in the 81st percentile with a 17.2° launch angle, which is one of the most flyball-inducing angles in MLB.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Manny Machado ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.

Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Manny Machado will have an edge today.

Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Posting a 1.66 K/BB rate this year, Jake Cronenworth has demonstrated strong plate discipline, checking in at the 83rd percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 9th-best hitter in MLB.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

Fernando Tatis Jr. will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore in today’s matchup.

Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Luis Arraez is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

Luis Arraez’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved recently, going from 49.7% on the season to 59.4% over the past 14 days.

With a .290 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Luis Arraez finds himself in the 95th percentile.

As it relates to his batting average ability, Luis Arraez is projected as the 2nd-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 90th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Ivan Herrera is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.

Ivan Herrera will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Ivan Herrera has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.2-mph average to last season’s 91.5-mph figure.

Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game.

This season, Gavin Sheets has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 94.8 mph compared to last year’s 90.8 mph mark.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Gavin Sheets has been unlucky this year. His .320 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .342.

The San Diego Padres have been the 8th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games,Among all starting pitchers, Matthew Liberatore’s fastball spin rate of 2110 rpm is in the 11th percentile this year.

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Matthew Liberatore must realize this, because he has utilized his non-fastballs a lot this year: 61.3% of the time, placing in the 83rd percentile.

Matthew Liberatore has had some very poor luck with his strikeouts this year, putting up a 7.18 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.90 — a 0.73 K/9 discrepancy.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

In the last two weeks, Pedro Pages’s 68.8% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 38.4%.

Despite posting a .249 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Pedro Pages has experienced some negative variance given the .030 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .279.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Alec Burleson is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.

Alec Burleson will have the handedness advantage against Randy Vasquez today.

Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Brendan Donovan is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.

Brendan Donovan will have the handedness advantage over Randy Vasquez in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Brendan Donovan will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 81st percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Jordan Walker will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jordan Walker’s true offensive ability to be a .307, indicating that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .040 deviation between that mark and his actual .267 wOBA.

Masyn Winn’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Masyn Winn will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Masyn Winn has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 10.9 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is significantly deflated relative to his 14.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Negative Match Player Stats with Padres vs Cardinals Series Game 3

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 8th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season,It is likely that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Lance Barrett) behind the plate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Busch Stadium as the 6th-worst stadium in the majors for home runs.

In MLB, Busch Stadium’s right field dimensions are the 2nd-deepest.

Randy Vasquez will have the handedness advantage over 6 opposing bats today.

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Randy Vasquez is projected to throw 82 pitches in today’s game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 4th-least on the slate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Randy Vasquez in the 1st percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.

Busch Stadium profiles as the #28 field in MLB for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Busch Stadium as the 9th-worst ballpark in MLB for lefty home runs.

Batting from the same side that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Jackson Merrill will be in a tough position in today’s matchup.

Jackson Merrill will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

As it relates to his home run skill, Victor Scott II ranks in the 19th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Victor Scott II is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this matchup.

In today’s game, Victor Scott II is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.9% rate (85th percentile).

Victor Scott II’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined lately; his 89.2-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 86.6-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Utilizing Statcast data, Victor Scott II grades out in the 22nd percentile for offensive skills via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .296.

Utilizing Statcast data, Victor Scott II ranks in the 23rd percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .234.

Jose Iglesias is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Jose Iglesias has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and will be challenged by the game’s 2nd-deepest RF fences today.

Jose Iglesias will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Jose Iglesias’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 85.8-mph average last season has dropped off to 83.6-mph.

There has been a significant decline in Jose Iglesias’s launch angle from last year’s 8.8° to 0.7° this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 1st percentile when estimating his home run skill.

The #9 stadium in the game for suppressing home runs to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium.

Xander Bogaerts will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Xander Bogaerts has averaged 8.2 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year, ranking in the 15th percentile for power.

Batting from the same side that Randy Vasquez throws from, Willson Contreras will be in a tough position in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 7th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Batting from the same side that Randy Vasquez throws from, Nolan Arenado faces a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Today, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.3% rate (99th percentile).

Nolan Arenado has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.7-mph dropping to 82.3-mph in the past two weeks.

From last year to this one, Nolan Arenado’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 45% to 37.3%.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Martin Maldonado ranks in the 1st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Martin Maldonado is projected to hit 9th in the lineup today.

Martin Maldonado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Martin Maldonado will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Martin Maldonado has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .242 mark is a good deal higher than his .209 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Manny Machado will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

In the past two weeks, Manny Machado’s 34.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 47.4%.

Jake Cronenworth is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this matchup.

Matthew Liberatore will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jake Cronenworth in today’s matchup.

Jake Cronenworth has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 8th-deepest LF fences today.

Jake Cronenworth will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Jake Cronenworth has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 6.7% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last two weeks.

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Fernando Tatis Jr. in today’s game.

Fernando Tatis Jr.’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last year to this one, falling from 48.8% to 40.7%.

When it comes to his home run ability, Luis Arraez ranks in the 0th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the same side that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Luis Arraez will have a tough matchup in today’s game.

Luis Arraez has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 8th-deepest LF fences today.

Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Luis Arraez in today’s game.

Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 87.9-mph mark last year has lowered to 85.7-mph.

Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 85.7-mph seasonal average has lowered to 82.4-mph in the past week.

Batting from the same side that Randy Vasquez throws from, Ivan Herrera will have a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

In today’s game, Ivan Herrera is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.3% rate (80th percentile).

Ivan Herrera has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 10.1% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past 14 days.

Ivan Herrera’s launch angle lately (-3.4° in the last 14 days) is considerably worse than his 8.8° seasonal angle.

Ivan Herrera has been lucky this year, notching a .388 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .331 — a .057 difference.

Matthew Liberatore will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Gavin Sheets in today’s matchup.

Gavin Sheets pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.7% — 87th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Gavin Sheets in today’s game.

Gavin Sheets’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, decreasing from 17.5% to 14.1%.

Gavin Sheets’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off recently, decreasing from 44.2% on the season to 32% in the last two weeks.

Projected catcher Pedro Pages profiles as a good pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Home field advantage typically improves pitcher metrics in all categories, and Matthew Liberatore will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Matthew Liberatore is projected to throw 75 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the least of the day.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the San Diego Padres with a 19.3% underlying K%.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Pedro Pages ranks in the 17th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Pedro Pages is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.

When starting against a righty hurler this year, Pedro Pages has been pinch hit for 11% of the time.

Randy Vasquez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Pedro Pages in today’s matchup.

Pedro Pages has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-deepest RF fences today.

Alec Burleson has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .289 BA is a fair amount higher than his .270 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Brendan Donovan has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Brendan Donovan has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 8.6% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past 7 days.

Jordan Walker is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.

Batting from the same side that Randy Vasquez throws from, Jordan Walker will be at a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

Jordan Walker’s launch angle in recent games (4.3° over the last 14 days) is considerably lower than his 10.5° seasonal mark.

Jordan Walker’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (4.1°) is a significant dropoff from his 7.9° mark last season.

With a .266 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Jordan Walker grades out in the 5th percentile for hitting ability.

Masyn Winn has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.

Dingers are generally less common at venues with deep fences, and Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest among all parks.

Hitting from the same side that Randy Vasquez throws from, Masyn Winn meets a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Over the past 7 days, Masyn Winn’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.3% down to 0%.

Over the past two weeks, Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal mark of 89.1 mph to 85.9 mph.

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