Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Padres vs Braves Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill as the 16th-best hitter in the majors when it comes to his batting average ability.

Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.

Truist Park projects as the #4 ballpark in the league for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in MLB, which often leads to better offense.

This game is forecasted to have the 13th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.4-mph in this game, the 6th-best of the day for bats.

Xander Bogaerts’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting BABIP to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Xander Bogaerts ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The Atlanta Braves have been the 7th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 4th-best park in Major League Baseball for base hits.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nick Pivetta in the 92nd percentile when assessing his strikeout ability.

Checking in at the 80th percentile, Nick Pivetta has put up a 25.8% K% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Verdugo in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Alex Verdugo is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.

Alex Verdugo will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta today.

Elias Diaz will have the handedness advantage over Chris Sale in today’s matchup… and even better, Sale has a large platoon split.

Over the last 7 days, Elias Diaz’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4.3% up to 20%.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Matt Olson ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Matt Olson is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

Among all stadiums, Truist Park’s centerfield dimensions are the 5th-shallowest.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Olson as baseball’s 14th-best home run hitter.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sean Murphy in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Sean Murphy is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.

When assessing his home run skill, Sean Murphy ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Manny Machado’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Manny Machado ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 7th-best hitter in baseball.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

When estimating his batting average ability, Luis Arraez is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Luis Arraez is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

When it comes to plate discipline, Luis Arraez’s talent is quite good, sporting a 0.41 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 100th percentile.

When estimating his home run ability, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Marcell Ozuna is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Ozzie Albies ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Austin Riley projects as the 16th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Austin Riley is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.

Austin Riley projects as the 18th-best hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Chris Sale projects as the 5th-best starting pitcher in the majors right now as it relates to his strikeout skill, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Chris Sale is projected to throw 98 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-most on the slate today.

Chris Sale will possess the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats in all categories.

In his last GS, Chris Sale performed well and put up 7 strikeouts.

Chris Sale’s slider utilization has jumped by 7.1% from last season to this one (40.3% to 47.4%) .

Gavin Sheets has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92-mph average to last year’s 87.8-mph mark.

Nick Allen hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

Extreme groundball batters like Nick Allen generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.

Michael Harris II’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Michael Harris II will have the upper hand today.

Considering Chris Sale’s large platoon split, Brandon Lockridge will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.

Brandon Lockridge hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lockridge in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Negative Match Player Stats with Padres vs Braves

Chris Sale will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jackson Merrill today… and it’s a particular mismatch considering Sale’s large platoon split.

The Atlanta Braves outfield defense profiles as the 4th-best among all the teams on the slate today.

Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jackson Merrill today.

Jackson Merrill has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 19.7% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

Over the past week, Jackson Merrill’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 21.3%.

Truist Park profiles as the #24 ballpark in the league for LHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Xander Bogaerts will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

In the last 7 days, Xander Bogaerts’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 11.5%.

Xander Bogaerts has paced 11.6 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, grading out in the 19th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Grading out in the 24th percentile for power, Xander Bogaerts has hit 8.4 long-balls per 600 plate appearances this year.

The #4 venue in Major League Baseball for suppressing home runs to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.

Xander Bogaerts has been cold in recent games, notching a 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to study power) in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Nick Pivetta in the 81st percentile when estimating his overall pitching skills.

Truist Park has the 2nd-deepest LF dimensions among all stadiums.

Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #25 HR venue in the league in today’s game.

Out of every team today, the 5th-best infield defense is that of the the San Diego Padres.

Nick Pivetta performed well in his last start and conceded 0 ER.

Nick Pivetta will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Nick Pivetta has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.2% less often this season (45.6%) than he did last year (51.8%).

Alex Verdugo has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-deepest LF fences today.

In the past week, Alex Verdugo’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal mark of 88.1 mph to 85 mph.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 10°, Alex Verdugo has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (4°) in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Alex Verdugo’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, falling from 12.1% to 7.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elias Diaz in the 11th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Elias Diaz is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.

Elias Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Elias Diaz has been very fortunate this year. His .303 rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .267.

Batting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Sean Murphy meets a tough challenge today.

Today, Sean Murphy is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36% rate (91st percentile).

Sean Murphy’s launch angle this season (7°) is significantly worse than his 10.2° figure last year.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Sean Murphy has had positive variance on his side this year. His .353 rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .316.

When it comes to his home runs, Sean Murphy has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His 28.3 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 21.0.

Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Manny Machado today.

Manny Machado has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 11.3% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past week.

Manny Machado’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off lately, decreasing from 14.8% on the season to 0% over the last week.

Fernando Tatis Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 15.8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

In the past week’s worth of games, Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.1%.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (29.5) provides evidence that Fernando Tatis Jr. has been lucky this year with his 36.0 actual HR/600.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .296 rate is considerably higher than his .277 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Considering Chris Sale’s large platoon split, Luis Arraez will be at an enormous disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in today’s game.

Today, Luis Arraez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39.3% rate (96th percentile).

Luis Arraez will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Luis Arraez has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.2-mph dropping to 79.9-mph in the past two weeks.

When estimating his home run ability, Luis Arraez ranks in the 0th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Batting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Marcell Ozuna encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Marcell Ozuna pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.5% — 86th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-deepest LF fences today.

From last season to this one, Marcell Ozuna’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 16.6% to 11%.

Marcell Ozuna has been lucky this year, putting up a .384 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .356 — a .028 deviation.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ozzie Albies in the 14th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Ozzie Albies is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the dish, Ozzie Albies will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side against Nick Pivetta in today’s game.

Typically, batters like Ozzie Albies who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Nick Pivetta.

Ozzie Albies’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off recently; his 88.2-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 71.8-mph over the last week.

Nick Pivetta will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Austin Riley today.

In the past week, Austin Riley’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 16.5% down to 11.1%.

In terms of plate discipline, Austin Riley’s skill is quite poor, sporting a 4.34 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 15th percentile.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.262) may lead us to conclude that Austin Riley has experienced some positive variance this year with his .283 actual batting average.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the San Diego Padres with a 19.3% underlying K%.

Chris Sale’s 2229-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 25th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

Chris Sale projects as the 11th-best SP in the league right now, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Chris Sale is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #25 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.

Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Chris Sale will have the handedness advantage over Gavin Sheets in today’s game… and it’s a particular mismatch considering Sale’s large platoon split.

Gavin Sheets will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Gavin Sheets’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, falling from 17.5% to 11.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Allen in the 4th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

Nick Allen is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card today.

Hitting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Nick Allen will have a tough matchup today.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 12°, Nick Allen has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-10.7°) in the past two weeks.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Nick Allen ranks in the 7th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Michael Harris II is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Michael Harris II has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 2nd-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Over the past 7 days, Michael Harris II’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.2% down to 0%.

Michael Harris II’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 93.4-mph figure last year has dropped to 90.7-mph.

As it relates to his home run skill, Brandon Lockridge ranks in the 6th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Brandon Lockridge is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Brandon Lockridge today.

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