Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Orioles vs Red Sox Series Game 3 Matchup Today

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 18th-best hitter in baseball.

Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.

Gunnar Henderson will have the handedness advantage over Lucas Giolito in today’s game.

Gunnar Henderson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Gunnar Henderson has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95.4-mph average to last season’s 92.7-mph figure.

The #3 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.

The #4 stadium in the majors for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.

Zach Eflin will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ceddanne Rafaela in today’s game.

Ceddanne Rafaela hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Ceddanne Rafaela’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 16.5% to 21.1%.

Ceddanne Rafaela’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, increasing from 21.1% on the season to 50% over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 77th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in the game for righty batting average.

The switch-hitting Nick Sogard will be less advantaged while batting from his bad side (0) today against Zach Eflin,Nick Sogard pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.9% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Nick Sogard will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Nick Sogard has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 5.6% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the last 7 days.

In the last 7 days, Nick Sogard’s 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 22.2%.

Heston Kjerstad’s BABIP ability is projected in the 83rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Batting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Heston Kjerstad will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Heston Kjerstad has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.303) implies that Heston Kjerstad has been unlucky this year with his .257 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Kristian Campbell has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (65% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game.

The shallowest left field dimensions in the league are found in Fenway Park.

Hitting from the same side that Zach Eflin throws from, Kristian Campbell will be in a tough position today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell in the 80th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Kristian Campbell will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Ramon Urias has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (96% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.

Ramon Urias hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Ramon Urias has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 31° compared to his seasonal mark of 16.3°.

Batting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Cedric Mullins will have an advantage in today’s game.

Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.7% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

Cedric Mullins’s launch angle this season (24.9°) is quite a bit higher than his 21.5° figure last year.

Grading out in the 79th percentile, Cedric Mullins has notched a .314 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year.

When estimating his home run skill, Cedric Mullins ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Mountcastle in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Ryan Mountcastle is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Ryan Mountcastle has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

In the past week, Ryan Mountcastle’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.5% up to 33.3%.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Ryan Mountcastle ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

In the last week’s worth of games, Ryan Mountcastle’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.1-mph over the course of the season to 103.1-mph lately.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 14th-best batter in Major League Baseball.

Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

Rafael Devers has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Rafael Devers will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Rafael Devers’s launch angle this season (14.6°) is quite a bit better than his 11.3° angle last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 77th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Trevor Story is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today’s game.

Zach Eflin will hold the platoon advantage over Trevor Story in today’s matchup.

Trevor Story hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Trevor Story will hold that advantage in today’s game.

In the last week’s worth of games, Trevor Story’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.3% up to 16.7%.

As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the plate, Abraham Toro will be at a disadvantage batting from his bad side against Zach Eflin in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Abraham Toro will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O’Hearn in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Ryan O’Hearn is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.

Hitting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Ryan O’Hearn will have an edge in today’s game.

Ryan O’Hearn has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s shallowest LF fences today.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Ryan O’Hearn ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ryan O’Hearn has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph to 100.1-mph in the last 7 days.

Jorge Mateo hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Jorge Mateo has compiled a .275 Isolated Power rate (ISO) since the start of last season, ranking in the 78th percentile.

Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park’s right field fences are the shallowest.

Dylan Carlson has done a good job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-hit balls. His 18.9° mark is among the highest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season (89th percentile).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

Zach Eflin will have the handedness advantage over Rob Refsnyder in today’s matchup.

Rob Refsnyder pulls many of his flyballs (33.2% — 75th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Rob Refsnyder will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Compared to their .333 overall projected rate, the .316 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Baltimore Orioles projected batting order in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup a fair amount a bit watered down.

It is scheduled that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Gabe Morales) in charge of the strike zone in this game.

Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher stats across the board, and Lucas Giolito will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The Boston Red Sox (25.4% K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 2nd-most strikeout-prone batting order of all teams today.

The Boston Red Sox have been the 9th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in future games,Batting from the same side that Zach Eflin throws from, Connor Wong has a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Connor Wong will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

With a .331 BABIP since the start of last season, Connor Wong has performed in the 92nd percentile.

Connor Wong has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 14.5 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is significantly deflated relative to his 17.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran as the 18th-best hitter in the majors when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Jarren Duran is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Jarren Duran will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

In the last week’s worth of games, Jarren Duran’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.8% up to 33.3%.

Emmanuel Rivera has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today’s game.

Emmanuel Rivera hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Emmanuel Rivera has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.3-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 89.4-mph mark.

Emmanuel Rivera’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 11.1% on the season to 50% over the past week.

Emmanuel Rivera has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .292 figure is significantly deflated relative to his .311 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

Adley Rutschman has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.4-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 89.8-mph mark.

Adley Rutschman’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls recently (21.6° in the last two weeks) is a considerable increase over his 16.4° seasonal figure.

Extreme groundball batters like Maverick Handley are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Lucas Giolito.

Negative Match Player Stats with Orioles vs Red Sox Series Game 3

In MLB, the 2nd-tallest fence height (on average) are at Fenway Park.

Fenway Park’s altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to less offense.

Gunnar Henderson will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

In the past week, Gunnar Henderson’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.4% down to 0%.

In the last 7 days, Gunnar Henderson’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 8.5%.

Out of all the teams in action today, the 4th-best infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox.

Ceddanne Rafaela is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Ceddanne Rafaela has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 14% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last 7 days.

By putting up a .277 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Ceddanne Rafaela finds himself in the 23rd percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Nick Sogard ranks in the 18th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Nick Sogard is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

Nick Sogard has displayed some bad exit velocity metrics in recent games, averaging just 86.1-mph on his flyballs in the past 14 days.

When assessing his home run ability, Nick Sogard ranks in the 10th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Heston Kjerstad is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.

22% of the time that Heston Kjerstad has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

Heston Kjerstad will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

In the last week’s worth of games, Kristian Campbell’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal EV of 92.1 mph to 86.7 mph.

Kristian Campbell has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 16.9 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is inflated compared to his 12.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Lucas Giolito will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ramon Urias in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Ramon Urias in today’s game.

Ramon Urias has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 7.7% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past 14 days.

Cedric Mullins’s BABIP ability is projected in the 6th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Cedric Mullins is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today.

Extreme flyball hitters like Cedric Mullins tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Lucas Giolito.

Cedric Mullins will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Lucas Giolito will hold the platoon advantage against Ryan Mountcastle in today’s game.

Ryan Mountcastle will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

By putting up a .254 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Ryan Mountcastle finds himself in the 10th percentile.

Batting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand today.

Rafael Devers’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 95-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 87-mph in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Rafael Devers’s true offensive skill to be a .366, suggesting that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .031 disparity between that mark and his actual .397 wOBA.

Trevor Story’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 89.3-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 84.2-mph in the past 14 days.

In the last 7 days, Trevor Story’s 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 41.9%.

Based on Statcast data, Trevor Story is in the 11th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .278.

Ranking in the 18th percentile, Trevor Story has posted a .269 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Abraham Toro in the 19th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Abraham Toro is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Utilizing Statcast metrics, Abraham Toro is in the 23rd percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .288.

Utilizing Statcast data, Abraham Toro grades out in the 20th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 11.700.

Abraham Toro’s 4.4% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) grades out in the 18th percentile since the start of last season.

When starting against a righty hurler this year, Ryan O’Hearn has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 18% of the time.

Ryan O’Hearn will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Ryan O’Hearn’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.3% down to 0%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Mateo in the 19th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Jorge Mateo is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Since the start of last season, Jorge Mateo has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 11% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

Batting from the same side that Lucas Giolito throws from, Jorge Mateo encounters a tough challenge in today’s game.

Dylan Carlson is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.

The switch-hitting Dylan Carlson will bat from his bad side (0) today against Lucas Giolito,Dylan Carlson will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Using Statcast data, Dylan Carlson grades out in the 17th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .256.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Rob Refsnyder has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His .359 mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .335.

The Baltimore Orioles have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Connor Wong (the Red Sox’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) profiles as a weak pitch framer.

Fenway Park grades out as the #2 stadium in the game for batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The 9.9% Barrel% of the Baltimore Orioles ranks them as the #6 club in the majors this year by this standard.

When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Trevor Rogers in the 23rd percentile among all SPs in MLB.

The #5 venue in the league for suppressing strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.

With 6 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Trevor Rogers meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.

Trevor Rogers will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Trevor Rogers in the 16th percentile when it comes to his overall pitching talent level.

Connor Wong is penciled in 8th in the batting order today.

From last season to this one, Connor Wong’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 16.1% to 7.4%.

Connor Wong’s footspeed has decreased this season. His 28.43 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.71 ft/sec now.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.250) suggests that Connor Wong has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his .268 actual batting average.

Ranked in the 15th percentile, Connor Wong’s average exit velocity of 86.6 mph ranks among the lowest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season.

Connor Wong has exhibited weak plate discipline since the start of last season, ranking in the 18th percentile with a 3.99 K/BB rate.

Hitting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, Jarren Duran will have an advantage in today’s game.

Grading out in the 18th percentile for power, Jarren Duran has paced 6.1 homers per 600 plate appearances this year.

When it comes to plate discipline, Jarren Duran’s skill is quite poor, posting a 3.83 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 22nd percentile.

Hitting from the same side that Lucas Giolito throws from, Emmanuel Rivera meets a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Emmanuel Rivera will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Emmanuel Rivera’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, going from 16.4% to 11.1%.

As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the plate, Adley Rutschman will bat from his bad side against Lucas Giolito today.

Adley Rutschman has compiled a .235 BABIP this year, ranking in the 10th percentile.

There has been a significant decline in Adley Rutschman’s launch angle from last season’s 18.7° to 15.7° this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Maverick Handley in the 5th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Maverick Handley is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Lucas Giolito throws from, Maverick Handley meets a tough challenge today.

Maverick Handley will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

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