Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Nationals vs Reds Matchup Today

As it relates to his BABIP talent, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.

The #10 stadium in the majors for boosting batting average to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.

The 7th-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Great American Ball Park.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.1-mph in this game, the 3rd-best of the day for hitters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

The #1 stadium in the league for boosting home runs to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.

When estimating his BABIP skill, James Wood is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

James Wood is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

Great American Ball Park ranks as the #1 park in baseball for lefty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Greene throws from, James Wood will have an edge in today’s matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, James Wood ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The #10 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.

Jacob Young has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.6%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

Extreme flyball batters like Jacob Young are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Greene.

Jacob Young has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 89.2-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal figure of 86.4-mph.

Batting from the opposite that Mitchell Parker throws from, Blake Dunn will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Blake Dunn has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Blake Dunn will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Blake Dunn in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Great American Ball Park as the best field in baseball for home runs.

Mitchell Parker is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue among all stadiums today.

Playing on the road typically lessens pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Mitchell Parker in today’s matchup.

Compared to the average pitcher, Mitchell Parker has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 4.2 adjusted pitches each start.

The Cincinnati Reds have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Gavin Lux, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Blake Dunn).

Considering the 2.3 discrepancy between Mitchell Parker’s 4.82 K/9 and his 7.13 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball this year when it comes to strikeouts and should positively regress in the future.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Crews in the 83rd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Dylan Crews has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Dylan Crews has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 15.5% seasonal rate to 23.1% over the past week.

In the past 14 days, Dylan Crews’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.6-mph over the course of the season to 100.9-mph recently.

Keibert Ruiz is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.

As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Keibert Ruiz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Hunter Greene in this game.

Keibert Ruiz pulls many of his flyballs (39.5% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

In the majors, Great American Ball Park’s RF fences are the 8th-shallowest.

The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Gavin Lux stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Gavin Lux will hold that advantage today.

Luis Garcia Jr.’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Luis Garcia Jr. is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Greene throws from, Luis Garcia Jr. will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Garcia Jr. in the 77th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Josh Bell has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Extreme flyball bats like Josh Bell tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Greene.

Last year, Josh Bell had an average launch angle of 12° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 21.2°.

Nathaniel Lowe’s BABIP skill is projected in the 83rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Nathaniel Lowe is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

Nathaniel Lowe will have the handedness advantage over Hunter Greene in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 75th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Santiago Espinal in the 80th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

Santiago Espinal is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Santiago Espinal will hold the platoon advantage over Mitchell Parker today.

Santiago Espinal has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, CJ Abrams ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

CJ Abrams is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.

CJ Abrams will hold the platoon advantage over Hunter Greene in today’s game.

TJ Friedl is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.

TJ Friedl has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals has just 1 same-handed RP.

TJ Friedl pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.6% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Mitchell Parker throws from, Spencer Steer will have an edge in today’s game.

Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.2% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Spencer Steer will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which should improve all of his stats.

As it relates to his strikeout ability, Hunter Greene projects as the 6th-best starting pitcher in the game currently, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Hunter Greene is expected to throw 99 pitches in this game, which is the highest number of pitches for all pitchers on the slate today. This estimate is based on his inherent tendencies and the nature of the matchup.

Hunter Greene will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats in all categories.

In his last outing, Hunter Greene turned in a great performance and compiled 8 strikeouts.

Hunter Greene’s fastball velocity has risen 1 mph this season (98.6 mph) over where it was last season (97.6 mph).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Hunter Greene in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall pitching skills.

It may be sensible to expect weaker performance for the Washington Nationals offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-luckiest offense in the league this year.

In his last game started, Hunter Greene turned in a great performance and gave up 2 ER.

Jose Tena’s BABIP ability is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jose Tena will have the handedness advantage over Hunter Greene in today’s matchup.

Jose Tena has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Extreme groundball bats like Jose Tena usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Greene.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

Matt McLain is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Mitchell Parker throws from, Matt McLain will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Noelvi Marte in the 76th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

Noelvi Marte has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (69% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Mitchell Parker throws from, Noelvi Marte will have an advantage today.

Negative Match Player Stats with Nationals vs Reds

The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will bat from his bad side (0) today against Mitchell Parker,In the past week, Elly De La Cruz’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.8% down to 0%.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 4.8°, Elly De La Cruz has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-2.8°) in the past 14 days.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Elly De La Cruz has been lucky this year. His .338 figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .289.

Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for James Wood in today’s matchup.

James Wood’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last season to this one, decreasing from 47.5% to 34.7%.

James Wood has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 22.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably higher than his 18.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 10.4°, James Wood’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls has dropped significantly in recent games (4.8° in the past 14 days).

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, James Wood has been lucky this year. His .386 mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .346.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Jacob Young ranks in the 15th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jacob Young is projected to hit 9th in the batting order today.

Batting from the same side that Hunter Greene throws from, Jacob Young encounters a tough challenge in today’s game.

Jacob Young will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

There has been a significant decline in Jacob Young’s launch angle from last season’s 3.8° to -6.2° this season.

When assessing his home run talent, Jacob Young ranks in the 0th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Blake Dunn is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this game.

Blake Dunn has been pulled from the game early 34% of the time when starting against a lefty hurler this year.

Over the past 7 days, Blake Dunn’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.7% down to 0%.

In the last 7 days, Blake Dunn’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 11.1%.

The 5th-worst projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Cincinnati Reds.

Mitchell Parker was on point in his last GS and conceded 0 ER.

Cincinnati’s 88.5-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in the league: #27 overall.

When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Mitchell Parker in the 23rd percentile among all SPs in Major League Baseball.

Mitchell Parker has relied on his curveball 5.3% less often this season (17.3%) than he did last season (22.6%).

Mitchell Parker’s 2166-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 9th percentile among all starters.

Dylan Crews is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Hunter Greene throws from, Dylan Crews will have a tough challenge today.

Dylan Crews will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 11.3°, Dylan Crews’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls has dropped significantly of late (2.8° in the past 14 days).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Keibert Ruiz in the 1st percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Keibert Ruiz will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Over the last 14 days, Keibert Ruiz’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal EV of 87.8 mph to 85.4 mph.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 8.4°, Keibert Ruiz has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-10°) in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Keibert Ruiz’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (3.9°) is considerably worse than his 14.2° figure last season.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Keibert Ruiz ranks in the 20th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Gavin Lux is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

Mitchell Parker will have the handedness advantage against Gavin Lux today.

Gavin Lux has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 6.5% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 8.5°, Gavin Lux has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (0.3°) over the last 14 days.

Despite posting a .378 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Gavin Lux has had some very good luck given the .062 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .316.

Luis Garcia Jr. has been pulled from the game early 10% of the time when starting against a northpaw this year.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Luis Garcia Jr. today.

Luis Garcia Jr.’s launch angle this season (4.5°) is significantly worse than his 8.1° angle last season.

Luis Garcia Jr.’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off recently, going from 14.3% on the season to 9.1% over the past 14 days.

Josh Bell’s BABIP skill is projected in the 17th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Josh Bell is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

Josh Bell will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Josh Bell has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 8.3% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

In the last week’s worth of games, Josh Bell’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.9%.

Nathaniel Lowe will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his home runs, Nathaniel Lowe has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His 19.1 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 12.4.

Santiago Espinal’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 85.9-mph average last season has fallen to 83.6-mph.

Santiago Espinal’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off of late, decreasing from 12.7% on the season to 5.9% in the last 14 days.

Santiago Espinal’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last season to this one, going from 43.3% to 32.7%.

Sporting a .277 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Santiago Espinal is ranked in the 13th percentile for hitting ability.

Santiago Espinal has recorded a .287 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, ranking in the 21st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Santiago Espinal in the 4th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

There has been a significant decline in Santiago Espinal’s launch angle from last season’s 14.9° to 10.3° this season.

Santiago Espinal has been lucky in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 11.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is inflated compared to his 5.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

CJ Abrams has been pinch hit for 10% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.

Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for CJ Abrams in today’s game.

CJ Abrams’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (9.4°) is significantly lower than his 13.7° figure last season.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.322) suggests that CJ Abrams has experienced some positive variance this year with his .364 actual wOBA.

TJ Friedl’s BABIP skill is projected in the 7th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

TJ Friedl has been pinch hit for 14% of the time when starting against a southpaw since the start of last season.

Hitting from the same side that Mitchell Parker throws from, TJ Friedl encounters a tough challenge today.

In the past 7 days, TJ Friedl’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal EV of 87.4 mph to 84.5 mph.

TJ Friedl’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (4.3°) is considerably worse than his 8.1° mark last year.

When it comes to his home run ability, TJ Friedl ranks in the 18th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Spencer Steer is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.

Spencer Steer’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased lately; his 91.2-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 72.6-mph in the past week.

Spencer Steer’s launch angle lately (5° in the last two weeks’ worth of games) is significantly lower than his 12.9° seasonal angle.

Spencer Steer has recorded a .223 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, grading out in the 21st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

In notching a .249 BABIP since the start of last season, Spencer Steer is positioned in the 7th percentile.

The Washington Nationals have 7 batters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Hunter Greene in this game.

Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Hunter Greene (42.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 6 GB hitters in Washington’s projected lineup.

Hunter Greene’s high utilization rate of his fastball (58.9% this year) is likely harming his results, consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

Hunter Greene is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #1 HR venue among all parks today.

Jose Tena is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today.

Jose Tena has been pulled from the game early 21% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.

Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jose Tena today.

Jose Tena has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 8.7% rate last year has lowered to 3.3% this year.

Jose Tena’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 90.8-mph average last season has decreased to 87.9-mph.

Matt McLain’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined lately; his 98.5-mph seasonal average has decreased to 96.4-mph in the last week.

With a .264 wOBA over the last 14 days, Matt McLain has been struggling at the plate.

Since the start of last season, Noelvi Marte has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 11% of his appearances when starting against lefty hurler.

From last year to this one, Noelvi Marte’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 16.1% to 10.3%.

Using Statcast data, Noelvi Marte ranks in the 6th percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .267.

With a .224 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Noelvi Marte has performed in the 22nd percentile.

By putting up a .262 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Noelvi Marte grades out in the 5th percentile.

Utilizing Statcast metrics, Noelvi Marte ranks in the 23rd percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 12.300.

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