Todays Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for New York at Colorado Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cave in the 79th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best ballpark in the game for LHB batting average.

Coors Field sits at the highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 14.7-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Coors Field as the best venue in the league for run-scoring.

The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest among all the teams playing today.

Pete Alonso projects as the 16th-best home run batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.

The #2 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.

Batting from the opposite that Kyle Freeland throws from, Harrison Bader will have the upper hand in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.D. Martinez in the 89th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

J.D. Martinez is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best park in the league for right-handed batting average.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Mark Vientos ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Mark Vientos is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.

Tallying 94.2 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Luis Severino checks in at the 87th percentile.

The Colorado Rockies have 5 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jake Cave, Michael Toglia, Ryan McMahon, Brenton Doyle, Ezequiel Tovar).

Projected catcher Francisco Alvarez grades out as a good pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Luis Severino’s 95.4-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 88th percentile among all starters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Tovar in the 84th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Ezequiel Tovar is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

Charlie Blackmon is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.

Coors Field ranks as the #2 venue in MLB for lefty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Michael Toglia will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against Luis Severino in this game.

The #1 stadium in the majors for boosting batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.

The New York Mets have 8 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Freeland in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan McMahon in the 84th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Ryan McMahon is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brenton Doyle in the 85th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Brenton Doyle is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Brandon Nimmo ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Brandon Nimmo is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.

It may be smart to expect better numbers for the Colorado Rockies offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 5th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Toglia in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

Ryan McMahon’s BABIP ability is projected in the 77th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Batting from the opposite that Kyle Freeland throws from, Jose Iglesias will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Jake Cave will hold the platoon advantage over Luis Severino in today’s game.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Pete Alonso ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.D. Martinez in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Kris Bryant will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Rodgers in the 79th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Brendan Rodgers is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brenton Doyle in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mark Vientos in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Elias Diaz will hold that advantage today.

Tuesday player match stat slumps with Mets vs Rockies Matchup

Jake Cave is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in today’s game.

13% of the time that Jake Cave has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

Jake Cave’s launch angle this season (6.5°) is considerably lower than his 15.1° mark last year.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.261) may lead us to conclude that Jake Cave has had some very good luck this year with his .280 actual wOBA.

Utilizing Statcast data, Jake Cave is in the 23rd percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .229.

Kris Bryant is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

Luis Severino will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kris Bryant in today’s game.

Over the last week, Kris Bryant’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.6% down to 0%.

Kris Bryant has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87-mph dropping to 83.5-mph over the past two weeks.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.215) suggests that Kris Bryant has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his .227 actual batting average.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Pete Alonso in today’s matchup.

Harrison Bader is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this matchup.

The Colorado Rockies infield defense projects as the best out of every team in action today.

Harrison Bader will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

In the past two weeks, Harrison Bader’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.1% down to 0%.

Harrison Bader’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off in recent games; his 89.7-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 85.7-mph over the last 14 days.

Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for J.D. Martinez today.

J.D. Martinez’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 90.4-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 84.7-mph over the past 7 days.

J.D. Martinez’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 96.9-mph average last year has decreased to 94.5-mph.

J.D. Martinez’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (15.6°) is considerably lower than his 18.9° angle last season.

J.D. Martinez has been lucky this year, putting up a .343 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .328 — a .015 discrepancy.

Jose Iglesias is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game.

Jose Iglesias is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Colorado (#1-best of all teams on the slate today).

Jose Iglesias will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Jose Iglesias’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 85.7-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 80.4-mph in the past two weeks.

Elias Diaz’s BABIP skill is projected in the 16th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Elias Diaz is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

Luis Severino will hold the platoon advantage over Elias Diaz today.

Elias Diaz’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 91.2-mph EV last year has dropped to 88.1-mph.

From last season to this one, Elias Diaz’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 14.5% to 10.6%.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Mark Vientos in today’s game.

Mark Vientos has been lucky this year, compiling a .372 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .317 — a .055 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Coors Field as the worst field in the game for strikeouts.

Playing on the road typically weakens pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Luis Severino today.

Hitting from the same side that Luis Severino throws from, Ezequiel Tovar meets a tough challenge in today’s game.

Ezequiel Tovar’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off lately, falling from 43.7% on the season to 20% in the past 7 days.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Ezequiel Tovar has been very fortunate this year. His .330 rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .281.

Ezequiel Tovar has exhibited weak plate discipline this year, checking in at the 1st percentile with a 9.75 K/BB rate.

Charlie Blackmon has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 5.8% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last 14 days.

Charlie Blackmon’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 86.4-mph mark last year has fallen off to 84.4-mph.

Charlie Blackmon’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased of late, decreasing from 15.4% on the season to 0% over the last two weeks.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Charlie Blackmon has been lucky this year. His .321 rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .291.

Charlie Blackmon has paced 12 dingers per 600 plate appearances this year, grading out in the 25th percentile for power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Toglia in the 7th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Michael Toglia is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.

Michael Toglia has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 94.8-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 92.6-mph EV.

Michael Toglia has been lucky this year, notching a .317 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .291 — a .026 discrepancy.

In terms of plate discipline, Michael Toglia’s talent is quite poor, sporting a 4.14 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 17th percentile.

The New York Mets have been the 9th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward, Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher stats in all categories, and Kyle Freeland will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Kyle Freeland turned in a great performance in his last game started and allowed 1 ER.

Kyle Freeland’s 91.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 2.9-mph increase from last year’s 88.2-mph mark.

In terms of his home runs, Jake Cave has been lucky this year. His 10.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 6.6.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ryan McMahon’s true offensive ability to be a .315, suggesting that he has been lucky this year given the .020 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .335 wOBA.

As it relates to his home runs, Michael Toglia has been lucky this year. His 44.5 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 32.6.

Grading out in the 4th percentile, Michael Toglia sports a .188 batting average this year.

Luis Severino will hold the platoon advantage against Brenton Doyle today.

Brenton Doyle’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off lately, going from 18.2% on the season to 6.5% in the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brenton Doyle’s true offensive talent to be a .297, providing some evidence that he has been lucky this year given the .041 gap between that mark and his actual .338 wOBA.

Hitting from the same side that Kyle Freeland throws from, Brandon Nimmo will have a tough challenge today.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Brandon Nimmo in today’s game.

In the last 14 days, Brandon Nimmo’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.8% down to 0%.

In the past two weeks, Brandon Nimmo’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal EV of 93.4 mph to 85.4 mph.

In the last week’s worth of games, Brandon Nimmo’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 16.2%.

Harrison Bader’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined recently, decreasing from 16.4% on the season to 7.7% in the last 14 days.

The Colorado Rockies projected lineup projects as the 4th-worst on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.

The Colorado Rockies have done a bad job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 11.4° angle is among the lowest in the league this year (#28 overall).

The maximum exit velocity of any player on the Colorado Rockies has been 114.7 mph this year, putting them as the #24 group of hitters in baseball by this metric.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Kyle Freeland is projected to throw 83 pitches in today’s matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 3rd-least on the slate.

Francisco Lindor will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Francisco Lindor has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 13.3% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past 7 days.

Over the past week, Francisco Lindor’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal figure of 93.9 mph to 85.9 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 3rd percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Charlie Blackmon in the 21st percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.218) suggests that Charlie Blackmon has had positive variance on his side this year with his .255 actual batting average.

Jake Cave has recorded a .260 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 8th percentile.

Utilizing Statcast metrics, Kris Bryant ranks in the 22nd percentile for offensive skills per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .293.

Jose Iglesias’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off recently, falling from 9.4% on the season to 0% over the last two weeks.

Luis Severino will hold the platoon advantage against Brendan Rodgers in today’s matchup.

Brendan Rodgers has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 11% rate last season has decreased to 4.6% this year.

Brendan Rodgers’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, decreasing from 19.7% to 9.4%.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Brendan Rodgers has been lucky this year. His .308 rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .295.

Brendan Rodgers has posted a .286 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 22nd percentile.

Over the last week, Brendan Rodgers’s 13.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 9.5%.

Utilizing Statcast metrics, Brendan Rodgers is in the 20th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 11.400.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elias Diaz in the 22nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.