Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Marlins vs Cubs Series Game 3 Matchup Today

Eric Wagaman is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

In MLB, Wrigley Field’s LF fences are the 5th-shallowest.

High humidity has a small but significant link with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the 4th-most humidity on the slate at 81%.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation often leads to more offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Connor Norby pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34% — 82nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Over the last 7 days, Connor Norby’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.3% up to 18.2%.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Carson Kelly ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Carson Kelly has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (61% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Ryan Weathers throws from, Carson Kelly will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Carson Kelly will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Nico Hoerner will hold the platoon advantage against Ryan Weathers in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Nico Hoerner will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Nico Hoerner has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 0.7% seasonal rate to 6.3% in the last week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

Derek Hill’s BABIP ability is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Extreme groundball batters like Derek Hill are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Jameson Taillon.

Derek Hill’s 10.9% Barrel% (a reliable standard to study power) ranks in the 80th percentile since the start of last season.

Derek Hill has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .226 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .269 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 10th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.

Extreme groundball batters like Kyle Tucker are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Weathers.

Justin Turner is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Weathers throws from, Justin Turner will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Bats such as Justin Turner with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ryan Weathers who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Dansby Swanson will hold the platoon advantage against Ryan Weathers in today’s game.

Dansby Swanson will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Weathers throws from, Jon Berti will have an advantage in today’s game.

Jon Berti will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Jon Berti has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.9-mph to 92.4-mph in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jon Berti in the 91st percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Jesus Sanchez is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Jameson Taillon throws from, Jesus Sanchez will have an edge in today’s game.

It is expected that we will see a Huge Pitchers Umpire (Ron Kulpa) behind the plate in today’s game.

Wrigley Field ranks as the #9 venue in baseball for strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Ryan Weathers’s 95.9-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 91st percentile among all SPs.

Playing on the road typically diminishes pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Ryan Weathers today.

Chicago Cubs batters jointly place 8th- in the league for power this year when judging by their 9.8% Barrel%.

As a team, Chicago Cubs bats have done well as far as hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (between 23° and 34°), rating best in baseball.

The Miami Marlins have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Derek Hill, Connor Norby, Matt Mervis, Kyle Stowers).

Jameson Taillon will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats across the board.

In his last start, Jameson Taillon conceded a monstrous 6 earned runs.

Jameson Taillon’s 91.8-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 24th percentile out of all SPs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

Pete Crow-Armstrong will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 13.4% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the past 14 days.

Compared to his seasonal average of 21.7°, Pete Crow-Armstrong has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 27.2° mark over the last 14 days.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xavier Edwards in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Xavier Edwards is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.

As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Xavier Edwards will get to bat from his better side against Jameson Taillon in today’s game.

Xavier Edwards has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Nick Fortes has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.

Nick Fortes pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 83rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Nick Fortes has made significant strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 1.5% rate last season to 7.1% this year.

Kyle Stowers is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.

Batting from the opposite that Jameson Taillon throws from, Kyle Stowers will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Kyle Stowers has made notable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 11% rate last season to 21.4% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 88th percentile when assessing his home run ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Seiya Suzuki in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Weathers throws from, Seiya Suzuki will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Negative Match Player Stats with Marlins vs Cubs Series Game 3

The league’s 7th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at Wrigley Field.

Batting from the same side that Jameson Taillon throws from, Eric Wagaman faces a tough challenge in today’s game.

Among every team in action today, the 5th-best infield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Eric Wagaman in today’s game.

Eric Wagaman has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 6.8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

Eric Wagaman’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 93.9-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 85.7-mph in the last 7 days.

Connor Norby is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Hitting from the same side that Jameson Taillon throws from, Connor Norby will have a tough challenge in today’s game.

Connor Norby will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

Connor Norby’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (21.4°) is considerably lower than his 25.3° mark last season.

Over the past 7 days, Carson Kelly’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 17.4% down to 0%.

Despite posting a .463 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Carson Kelly has experienced some positive variance given the .135 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .328.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Kelly in the 10th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Carson Kelly’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off in recent games, falling from 44.9% on the season to 12.5% over the last 7 days.

When estimating his home run ability, Nico Hoerner ranks in the 2nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Nico Hoerner is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

Nico Hoerner has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Nico Hoerner’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 86.5-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 82.2-mph in the last week.

Derek Hill is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today.

Hitting from the same side that Jameson Taillon throws from, Derek Hill will have a disadvantage in today’s game.

In today’s game, Derek Hill is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 33.5% rate (76th percentile).

Derek Hill is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the weak infield defense of Chicago (#29-worst of all teams on the slate).

Ryan Weathers will have the handedness advantage over Kyle Tucker in today’s matchup.

Kyle Tucker pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Kyle Tucker’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last season to this one, decreasing from 44.9% to 38.7%.

Kyle Tucker’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off lately, falling from 38.7% on the season to 25% over the past week.

Kyle Tucker’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off in recent games, decreasing from 22% on the season to 12.2% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

When it comes to his home run skill, Justin Turner ranks in the 19th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Justin Turner’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined recently, going from 40% on the season to 25% over the last 7 days.

Sporting a 12.900 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Justin Turner is positioned in the 25th percentile for power.

With a .185 Isolated Power (ISO) since the start of last season, Justin Turner finds himself in the 20th percentile.

Dansby Swanson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (64% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this game.

Dansby Swanson has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 30.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount higher than his 20.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Dansby Swanson has displayed weak plate discipline this year, placing in the 25th percentile with a 3.77 K/BB rate.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Dansby Swanson has been lucky this year. His .332 mark has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .303.

Dansby Swanson’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off in recent games, going from 17.5% on the season to 9.1% over the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jon Berti in the 5th percentile when estimating his home run talent.

Jon Berti is projected to bat 9th in the lineup today.

Jon Berti has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44.1%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Typically, bats like Jon Berti who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Ryan Weathers.

Jon Berti’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls in recent games (-3.7° in the past two weeks’ worth of games) is quite a bit worse than his 3.4° seasonal figure.

Jon Berti has been cold recently, notching a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power) in the last two weeks.

Jesus Sanchez will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Jesus Sanchez has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.1% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Jesus Sanchez’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 94-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 89.3-mph in the past two weeks.

Jesus Sanchez’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (-2.4° over the past 14 days) is considerably lower than his 13.7° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ryan Weathers to be on a bit of a short leash in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 82 pitches.

The Chicago Cubs (19.4 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-least strikeout-prone group of hitters of all teams on the slate today.

With 6 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected offense, Ryan Weathers will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.

The underlying talent of the Chicago Cubs projected lineup today (.322 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .334 wOBA this year.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 4th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in future games,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Wrigley Field as the 9th-worst ballpark in the majors for walks.

Wrigley Field has the 5th-deepest right field dimensions among all parks.

Because groundball hitters hold a big edge over flyball pitchers, Jameson Taillon and his 37.6% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult position today facing 4 opposing GB bats.

In his last GS, Jameson Taillon wasn’t on when it came to striking hitters out and only managed to post 1 Ks.

Jameson Taillon’s cut-fastball usage has dropped by 11.4% from last year to this one (25% to 13.6%) .

The 2nd-weakest projected lineup of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the Miami Marlins.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today.

Batting from the same side that Ryan Weathers throws from, Pete Crow-Armstrong will have a disadvantage in today’s game.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 34.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a fair amount higher than his 27.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Despite posting a .351 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Pete Crow-Armstrong has had positive variance on his side given the .031 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .320.

As it relates to plate discipline, Pete Crow-Armstrong’s skill is quite poor, putting up a 4.51 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 12th percentile.

Xavier Edwards will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Xavier Edwards’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 87.1-mph average last season has dropped to 84.2-mph.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 10.3°, Xavier Edwards has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-2.6°) over the past 14 days.

Xavier Edwards’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (4.2°) is quite a bit worse than his 10.8° figure last season.

When assessing his home run skill, Xavier Edwards ranks in the 1st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Fortes in the 1st percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Since the start of last season, Nick Fortes has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 15% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

Hitting from the same side that Jameson Taillon throws from, Nick Fortes will have a tough matchup in today’s matchup.

Nick Fortes will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Kyle Stowers has been pinch hit for 14% of the time.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Kyle Stowers in today’s matchup.

Despite posting a .368 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Kyle Stowers has been very fortunate given the .056 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .312.

In terms of his home runs, Seiya Suzuki has had positive variance on his side this year. His 35.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 27.2.

Seiya Suzuki has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 16.5% seasonal rate has decreased to 6.7% over the past week.

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