Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Dodgers vs Cardinals Matchup Today

This game is forecasted to have the 3rd-most humidity on the slate today (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the worst outfield defense is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Victor Scott II will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Victor Scott II has compiled a .340 BABIP this year, grading out in the 86th percentile.

Busch Stadium has the 10th-lowest average fence height among all stadiums.

Victor Scott II’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, going from 18.5% on the season to 37.5% in the last week.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 2nd-best batter in Major League Baseball.

Shohei Ohtani is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

Shohei Ohtani will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sonny Gray in today’s game.

Shohei Ohtani has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 101.5-mph average to last season’s 99-mph EV.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Willson Contreras ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Willson Contreras is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.

Batting from the same side that Ben Casparius throws from, Willson Contreras will be at a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

Willson Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s estimation, Sonny Gray’s overall pitching ability is in the 92nd percentile among all starters in the majors right now.

Tallying 17.2 outs per outing this year on average, Sonny Gray falls in the 78th percentile.

Projected catcher Pedro Pages projects as a good pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Busch Stadium grades out as the #28 ballpark in the game for home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

When estimating his strikeout talent, Sonny Gray projects as the 20th-best SP in the majors right now, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Given that groundball pitchers have a notable advantage over groundball batters, Sonny Gray and his 31.6% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position in today’s matchup going up against 4 opposing GB batters.

Sonny Gray will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to boost all of his metrics in all categories.

Out of all SPs, Sonny Gray’s fastball spin rate of 2501 rpm is in the 92nd percentile this year.

Ben Casparius will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nolan Arenado in today’s game.

Nolan Arenado will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Nolan Arenado has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 91.3-mph average to last year’s 89.2-mph EV.

When assessing his home run skill, Max Muncy ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Max Muncy is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Max Muncy will have an advantage today.

Max Muncy has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 13.7% seasonal rate to 25% in the last 14 days.

Max Muncy has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph to 97.2-mph over the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mookie Betts in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Mookie Betts is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

Mookie Betts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

Mookie Betts has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 93.6-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal EV of 90.7-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Smith in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Will Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Will Smith’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 36.4% to 53.4%.

Ranking in the 97th percentile, Will Smith has notched a .400 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

Will Smith’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 17.6% on the season to 22.2% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

When estimating his home run ability, Michael Conforto ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Michael Conforto will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Michael Conforto’s launch angle lately (34.3° over the last 7 days) is significantly higher than his 13.4° seasonal mark.

Michael Conforto has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .165 figure is considerably lower than his .224 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez as the 16th-best batter in MLB when estimating his BABIP skill.

Teoscar Hernandez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.

Teoscar Hernandez’s launch angle in recent games (30.7° in the past week) is a significant increase over his 12.4° seasonal figure.

Teoscar Hernandez has notched a .338 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 77th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Teoscar Hernandez ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

When estimating his batting average ability, Freddie Freeman is projected as the 10th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Freddie Freeman is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Freddie Freeman will have an advantage in today’s game.

Freddie Freeman projects as the 15th-best batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Freddie Freeman has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.7-mph average to last year’s 89.4-mph mark.

Ivan Herrera’s BABIP ability is projected in the 91st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ivan Herrera is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup.

Hitting from the same side that Ben Casparius throws from, Ivan Herrera will be in a tough position today.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andy Pages in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Andy Pages has made notable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 10.1% seasonal rate to 18.8% over the last week.

Andy Pages has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.3-mph to 94.4-mph over the past 7 days.

Andy Pages’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, increasing from 46.9% on the season to 53.7% over the past two weeks.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

As it relates to his home run talent, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage today.

Nolan Gorman’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (28.7°) is quite a bit better than his 24.5° mark last season.

Los Angeles’s -2-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Nolan Gorman, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Alec Burleson hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 78th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Alec Burleson will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Brendan Donovan will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 77th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Masyn Winn is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Ben Casparius throws from, Masyn Winn will not have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Masyn Winn will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Negative Match Player Stats with Dodgers vs Cardinals

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Victor Scott II ranks in the 23rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Victor Scott II is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Victor Scott II will hold the platoon advantage over Ben Casparius today.

Victor Scott II has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 8th-deepest LF fences today.

Victor Scott II’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 86.6-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 80.4-mph over the last 7 days.

When estimating his home run ability, Victor Scott II ranks in the 17th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The #4 venue in baseball for suppressing home runs to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium.

Among all parks, Busch Stadium’s right field fences are the 2nd-deepest.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Shohei Ohtani in today’s game.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (37.4) suggests that Shohei Ohtani has been lucky this year with his 49.1 actual HR/600.

Shohei Ohtani has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .425 mark is significantly inflated relative to his .388 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Busch Stadium projects as the #26 field in MLB for RHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Willson Contreras’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off lately, decreasing from 14.3% on the season to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

Willson Contreras’s launch angle this year (6.7°) is considerably worse than his 14.1° angle last season.

The best projected lineup of the day in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Sonny Gray’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.1 mph this season (91.2 mph) below where it was last year (92.3 mph).

Sonny Gray has used his cutter 5.4% less often this season (12.4%) than he did last season (17.8%).

The #5 venue in the majors for suppressing strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium.

Sonny Gray is an extreme flyball pitcher (31.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #28 HR venue among all major league parks today.

Nolan Arenado’s BABIP talent is projected in the 5th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.4% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 8th-deepest LF fences today.

Extreme groundball batters like Nolan Arenado are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Ben Casparius.

Nolan Arenado’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last season to this one, falling from 45% to 35.3%.

Posting a .286 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Nolan Arenado is positioned in the 16th percentile for hitting ability.

In today’s matchup, Max Muncy is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39% rate (98th percentile).

Extreme flyball hitters like Max Muncy are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Sonny Gray.

Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Max Muncy in today’s game.

Max Muncy has put up a .221 Expected Batting Average this year, grading out in the 14th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Max Muncy in the 4th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Sonny Gray will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mookie Betts in today’s matchup.

Typically, batters like Mookie Betts who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Sonny Gray.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Mookie Betts in today’s matchup.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (13.5) suggests that Mookie Betts has been lucky this year with his 19.8 actual HR/600.

Posting a .249 BABIP this year, Mookie Betts is ranked in the 14th percentile.

Will Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (79% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Sonny Gray will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Will Smith today.

Typically, batters like Will Smith who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Sonny Gray.

Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Will Smith in today’s matchup.

In the past week’s worth of games, Will Smith’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.5% down to 0%.

Michael Conforto is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.

Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Michael Conforto today.

In the past week, Michael Conforto’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.7% down to 0%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Conforto in the 22nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Sonny Gray will have the handedness advantage over Teoscar Hernandez today.

Teoscar Hernandez has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and will be challenged by MLB’s 2nd-deepest RF fences today.

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Teoscar Hernandez in today’s matchup.

Over the last 7 days, Teoscar Hernandez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.6% down to 0%.

Teoscar Hernandez has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.3-mph dropping to 81.6-mph over the last week.

Freddie Freeman has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Freddie Freeman in today’s matchup.

Freddie Freeman has been lucky this year, posting a .437 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .364 — a .073 discrepancy.

Freddie Freeman’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 91.7-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 86.4-mph over the last 7 days.

Ivan Herrera has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

In the past 14 days, Ivan Herrera’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.5% down to 0%.

In the past 14 days, Ivan Herrera’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 10.5%.

Despite posting a .412 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ivan Herrera has been lucky given the .077 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .335.

Andy Pages is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Home runs are generally less common at parks with deep fences, and Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest in the majors.

Sonny Gray will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andy Pages in today’s matchup.

Extreme groundball batters like Andy Pages are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Sonny Gray.

Andy Pages will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

Lars Nootbaar will have the handedness advantage over Ben Casparius today.

In the last week’s worth of games, Lars Nootbaar’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.6% down to 0%.

Nolan Gorman is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.

Nolan Gorman will have the handedness advantage over Ben Casparius today.

Nolan Gorman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.6% — 87th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Typically, batters like Nolan Gorman who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Ben Casparius.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 15th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Alec Burleson is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

Batting from the opposite that Ben Casparius throws from, Alec Burleson will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Alec Burleson’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, falling from 14.1% to 10.7%.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Alec Burleson has been lucky this year. His .335 mark has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .288.

Brendan Donovan will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ben Casparius today.

Brendan Donovan has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Brendan Donovan has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 7.7% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last 7 days.

Over the last 14 days, Brendan Donovan’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal mark of 89.9 mph to 77.3 mph.

Despite posting a .367 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brendan Donovan has been very fortunate given the .030 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .337.

Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased in recent games; his 90.1-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 85.1-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 15.8°, Masyn Winn has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (7.9°) over the past two weeks.

Despite posting a .347 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Masyn Winn has experienced some positive variance given the .041 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .306.

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