Dodgers @ Brewers Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positives for the Los Angeles Dodgers Series Game 3 Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andy Pages in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

,Andy Pages is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,American Family Field profiles as the #4 field in MLB for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,American Family Field has the 7th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums.

,In Major League Baseball, American Family Field has the 5th-lowest average fence height.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

,William Contreras is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.

,Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.

,When assessing his home run skill, Jake Bauers ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects American Family Field as the 4th-best park in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs.

,The American Family Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 8° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense.

,When assessing his overall offensive ability, William Contreras ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,David Hamilton will hold the platoon advantage against Yoshinobu Yamamoto in today’s game.

,Will Smith projects as the 20th-best hitter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Sal Frelick will have the handedness advantage over Yoshinobu Yamamoto in today’s matchup.

,William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

,Teoscar Hernandez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

,Over the past week, Teoscar Hernandez’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.6% up to 25%.

,Joey Ortiz will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

,When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Mookie Betts ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Mookie Betts is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.

,This season, Joey Ortiz has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 88.8 mph compared to last year’s 86.2 mph mark.

,In the past week, Joey Ortiz’s 63.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 37%.

,When estimating his overall offensive ability, Christian Yelich ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Christian Yelich is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

,Jackson Chourio is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 96th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

,Brice Turang is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.

,Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Sproat throws from, Hyeseong Kim will have an edge in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Freddie Freeman as the 17th-best hitter in baseball when estimating his batting average ability.

,Freddie Freeman is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

,Sal Frelick’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,When estimating his BABIP ability, Christian Yelich is projected as the 17th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Tucker in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

,Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

,Andrew Vaughn is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.

,Andrew Vaughn hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

,Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,When it comes to his strikeout talent, Yoshinobu Yamamoto projects as the 20th-best pitcher in MLB currently, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 6.2 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.

,The #2 ballpark in the league for boosting strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.

,Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has utilized his secondary offerings 6.2% more often this season (63.2%) than he did last year (57%).

,Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been unlucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, compiling an 8.84 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 10.17 — a 1.33 K/9 difference.

,Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and David Hamilton will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,When it comes to his home run talent, Teoscar Hernandez ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andy Pages in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

,Shohei Ohtani projects as the 4th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Shohei Ohtani is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.

,Mookie Betts hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yoshinobu Yamamoto as the 5th-best starting pitcher in baseball currently.

,In his previous GS, Yoshinobu Yamamoto was firing on all cylinders and allowed 2 ER.

,Yoshinobu Yamamoto has put up a 12.8% Swinging Strike% this year, checking in at the 88th percentile.

,Will Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,Compared to his seasonal average of 20.6°, Will Smith has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 24° angle in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Freddie Freeman ranks as the 18th-best hitter in the game.

,Kyle Tucker will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Sproat in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Bauers in the 81st percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

,Hitting from the opposite that Yoshinobu Yamamoto throws from, Jake Bauers will have an advantage in today’s game.

,Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher metrics across the board, and Brandon Sproat will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,Out of all SPs, Brandon Sproat’s fastball velocity of 95.7 mph ranks in the 84th percentile this year.

,Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Brandon Sproat must realize this, because he has used his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 58.6% of the time, ranking in the 75th percentile.

,The best projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hyeseong Kim in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

,Hyeseong Kim hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

,Brice Turang will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yoshinobu Yamamoto today.

Negatives with the Milwaukee Brewers Series Game 3 Game Today

Batting from the same side that Brandon Sproat throws from, Andy Pages will be at a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

,Andy Pages will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

,Andy Pages’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off of late; his 91.5-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 86-mph in the past week.

,Andy Pages’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, going from 19.4% to 15.1%.

,Andy Pages has been lucky this year, compiling a .351 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .327 — a .024 difference.

,Hitting from the same side that Yoshinobu Yamamoto throws from, William Contreras will not have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

,Compared to his seasonal mark of 10.5°, William Contreras has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (2.3°) over the past two weeks.

,Utilizing Statcast data, William Contreras is in the 23rd percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 12.600.

,Jake Bauers is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

,Jake Bauers has been pinch hit for 10% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.

,Jake Bauers has been lucky this year, posting a .361 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .323 — a .038 deviation.

,When estimating his overall offensive skill, David Hamilton ranks in the 11th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,David Hamilton is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this game.

,This year, David Hamilton has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 17% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound.

,There has been a decrease in David Hamilton’s average exit velocity this season, from 87 mph last year to 84.1 mph now,Over the last two weeks, David Hamilton’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal average of 89.1 mph to 85.8 mph.

,Will Smith is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

,Brandon Sproat will have the handedness advantage against Will Smith in today’s game.

,Will Smith will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

,In the last 7 days, Will Smith’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.7% down to 8.3%.

,Will Smith’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined lately; his 92.1-mph seasonal average has fallen to 88.3-mph over the past two weeks.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 4th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

,Sal Frelick is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Over the past 14 days, Sal Frelick’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal figure of 86.7 mph to 82.6 mph.

,There has been a significant decline in Sal Frelick’s launch angle from last year’s 12.1° to 9.1° this year.

,In the last week’s worth of games, Sal Frelick’s 5.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12.8%.

,Teoscar Hernandez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today’s game.

,Brandon Sproat will have the handedness advantage against Teoscar Hernandez in today’s game.

,Teoscar Hernandez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Ortiz in the 22nd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

,Joey Ortiz is penciled in 8th on the lineup card today.

,This year, Joey Ortiz has been pulled from the game early in 10% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound.

,Yoshinobu Yamamoto will hold the platoon advantage over Joey Ortiz today.

,Joey Ortiz has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Brandon Sproat will have the handedness advantage against Mookie Betts in today’s game.

,Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Mookie Betts today.

,Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (13.9) suggests that Mookie Betts has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his 19.6 actual HR/600.

,Posting a .248 BABIP since the start of last season, Mookie Betts is ranked in the 6th percentile.

,Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.0) suggests that Christian Yelich has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season with his 26.4 actual HR/600.

,Yoshinobu Yamamoto will hold the platoon advantage against Jackson Chourio in today’s game.

,Jackson Chourio’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last season to this one, going from 41.2% to 33.3%.

,In the last week, Brice Turang’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.1% down to 0%.

,In the last week, Brice Turang’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 11.5%.

,Despite posting a .388 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brice Turang has had positive variance on his side given the .059 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .329.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hyeseong Kim in the 6th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

,Hyeseong Kim is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this game.

,Hyeseong Kim will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

,Hyeseong Kim’s average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 85-mph seasonal average has fallen to 78.5-mph in the past week.

,Hyeseong Kim’s launch angle in recent games (3.8° over the past two weeks) is quite a bit lower than his 9.6° seasonal mark.

,Freddie Freeman will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

,Freddie Freeman’s launch angle this year (11°) is significantly worse than his 14.3° figure last year.

,Posting a .299 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Sal Frelick finds himself in the 25th percentile for offensive ability.

,Kyle Tucker pulls many of his flyballs (37.8% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

,Kyle Tucker will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

,In the past two weeks, Kyle Tucker’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%.

,Kyle Tucker’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 92.4-mph mark last season has dropped to 89.1-mph.

,Kyle Tucker’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off of late; his 89.1-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 82.8-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

,Yoshinobu Yamamoto will have the handedness advantage over Andrew Vaughn in today’s game.

,In the past two weeks, Andrew Vaughn’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal mark of 89.9 mph to 83.5 mph.

,Andrew Vaughn’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined recently, falling from 9.7% on the season to 0% in the past week.

,By putting up a 3.94 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Jackson Chourio has demonstrated poor plate discipline, ranking in the 19th percentile.

,Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 20.2% underlying K%.

,It is expected that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Tyler Jones) behind the plate today.

,Playing on the road typically lowers pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Yoshinobu Yamamoto in today’s matchup.

,Shohei Ohtani will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

,Shohei Ohtani has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 23.7% rate last year has lowered to 17.6% this season.

,American Family Field ranks as the #2 venue in the league for home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Freddie Freeman’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined in recent games, falling from 14.6% on the season to 10.7% in the past two weeks.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Sproat to throw 80 pitches in this matchup (3rd-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

,Brandon Sproat’s 2037.8-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 9th percentile among all starters.

,Given the 1.37 discrepancy between Brandon Sproat’s 5.75 ERA and his 4.38 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the league this year and ought to see positive regression going forward.

,Andrew Vaughn’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last season to this one, going from 16.1% to 9.7%.

,From last season to this one, Hyeseong Kim’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 18.3% to 10.1%.

,Brice Turang has performed at a clip of 11.3 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, checking in at the 18th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Joey Ortiz’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off recently; his 88.8-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 85.9-mph over the last 7 days.

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