Todays Game 3 Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Arizona at Pittsburgh Game 3 Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 83rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 5th-highest temperatures of the day at 87°.

Gabriel Moreno has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.5-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 90.3-mph figure.

Gabriel Moreno has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs this year; his 7.9 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a good deal lower than his 12.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

As it relates to plate discipline, Gabriel Moreno’s talent is quite impressive, posting a 1.29 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 98th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 91st percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Bryan De La Cruz is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game.

Bryan De La Cruz will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Bryan De La Cruz has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.9-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.7-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake McCarthy in the 87th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.

Jake McCarthy will have the handedness advantage over Paul Skenes in today’s matchup.

Last season, Jake McCarthy had an average launch angle of 11.1° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 15.6°.

Paul Skenes projects as the 2nd-best starting pitcher in Major League Baseball right now, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Paul Skenes has averaged 96.2 adjusted pitches per outing this year, grading out in the 93rd percentile.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 8th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season, Jonathan Parra profiles as a Pitchers Umpire and is scheduled to be in charge of the strike zone in this game.

The #3 field in the league for suppressing walks, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.

Michael A. Taylor has a ton of pop (79th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (31.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Ryne Nelson struggles to strike batters out (7th percentile K%) — great news for Taylor.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Michael A. Taylor will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Michael A. Taylor has made notable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 12.5% seasonal rate to 26.7% in the past two weeks.

Michael A. Taylor’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 39.9% to 46.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.

Over the last week, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.1-mph over the course of the season to 101.9-mph recently.

There has been a significant improvement in Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s launch angle from last year’s 10.7° to 16.1° this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke’Bryan Hayes in the 80th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Ke’Bryan Hayes will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has been unlucky this year, notching a .263 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .300 — a .037 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 93rd percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Extreme groundball batters like Eugenio Suarez tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Paul Skenes.

Eugenio Suarez has made big improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 10.2% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the last two weeks.

Gabriel Moreno’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Gabriel Moreno’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, going from 40.4% on the season to 59.4% over the last two weeks.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Josh Bell ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Josh Bell is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.

Josh Bell has made big gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 7.7% seasonal rate to 13.8% over the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

Oneil Cruz will have the handedness advantage against Ryne Nelson in today’s game.

Rowdy Tellez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

Rowdy Tellez will hold the platoon advantage over Ryne Nelson today.

Rowdy Tellez will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Bryan Reynolds ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Bryan Reynolds will get to bat from his better side against Ryne Nelson in today’s game.

Geraldo Perdomo has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 89.9-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 87.3-mph figure.

Compared to his seasonal average of 12.4°, Jake McCarthy has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 16.4° angle over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Triolo in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Jared Triolo will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Jared Triolo has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph to 96.2-mph over the past week.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jared Triolo has experienced some negative variance this year. His .256 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .294.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Joc Pederson ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Joc Pederson is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.

Joc Pederson will have the handedness advantage over Paul Skenes today.

Joc Pederson has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 12.4% seasonal rate to 18.8% over the past 14 days.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Bryan Reynolds will hold that advantage today.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Eugenio Suarez ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Bart in the 78th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Joey Bart has strong power (78th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (29.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Ryne Nelson doesn’t generate many whiffs (14th percentile K%) — great news for Bart.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Joey Bart will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Ketel Marte projects as the 16th-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ketel Marte is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.

Over the last 14 days, Ketel Marte has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 10.9% to 17.1%.

Ketel Marte has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.6-mph average to last year’s 91.1-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 79th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Oneil Cruz projects as the 12th-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Oneil Cruz has a ton of pop (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (30.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Ryne Nelson has a pitch-to-contact profile (10th percentile K%) — great news for Cruz.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Corbin Carroll is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Paul Skenes throws from, Corbin Carroll will have an edge today.

In the past 7 days, Rowdy Tellez’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.9% up to 33.3%.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Bart, Oneil Cruz, Michael A. Taylor, Jared Triolo).

With 6 hitters of the same handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Ryne Nelson ought to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

In his last start, Ryne Nelson was on point and accumulated 9 strikeouts.

Ryne Nelson has utilized his cut-fastball 5% more often this season (19.8%) than he did last season (14.8%).

Joey Bart has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 11.9% seasonal rate to 26.7% over the last week.

Joey Bart has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.9-mph to 95-mph in the past two weeks.

Geraldo Perdomo has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 0.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a fair amount lower than his 5.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Paul Skenes projects as the 9th-best SP in Major League Baseball currently when it comes to his strikeout talent, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Considering that flyball batters struggle against flyball pitchers, Paul Skenes (47.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 3 FB hitters in the opposing team’s projected offense.

Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher metrics in all categories, and Paul Skenes will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rowdy Tellez in the 90th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael A. Taylor in the 79th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Jake McCarthy’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, rising from 45.8% on the season to 57.1% in the last two weeks.

Sunday Game 3 player match stat slumps with D-Backs vs Pirates Matchup

Gabriel Moreno is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today.

PNC Park ranks as the #23 stadium in the game for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

PNC Park has the 6th-highest average fence height in the majors.

PNC Park has the 8th-most fair ground in the majors — generally bad for home runs.

Hitting from the same side that Paul Skenes throws from, Gabriel Moreno will not have the upper hand today.

Ryne Nelson will hold the platoon advantage over Bryan De La Cruz in today’s game.

Over the past week, Bryan De La Cruz’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 17.1%.

Jake McCarthy is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game.

Today, Jake McCarthy is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34% rate (78th percentile).

Typically, bats like Jake McCarthy who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Paul Skenes.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jake McCarthy in today’s game.

Jake McCarthy’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 88.5-mph figure last year has fallen to 85.8-mph.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have 6 batters in the projected lineup that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Paul Skenes today.

Paul Skenes has been lucky this year, putting up a 1.90 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 2.92 — a 1.02 deviation.

The maximum exit velocity of any player on the Arizona Diamondbacks has been 117 mph this year, making them the #7 club in the majors by this stat.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael A. Taylor in the 17th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Michael A. Taylor is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this matchup.

Batting from the same side that Paul Skenes throws from, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will be at a disadvantage in today’s game.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Ke’Bryan Hayes is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

Ryne Nelson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ke’Bryan Hayes in today’s matchup.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has struggled with his Barrel%; his 7.5% rate last season has decreased to 1.9% this season.

Ke’Bryan Hayes’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 92.6-mph EV last season has fallen off to 88.8-mph.

Eugenio Suarez is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Paul Skenes throws from, Eugenio Suarez faces a tough challenge today.

Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.9% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks PNC Park as the 8th-worst venue in baseball for left-handed home runs.

Josh Bell has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Extreme flyball hitters like Josh Bell usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Paul Skenes.

Josh Bell will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

In terms of plate discipline, Oneil Cruz’s talent is quite poor, sporting a 4.56 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 10th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rowdy Tellez in the 3rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Rowdy Tellez has had positive variance on his side this year. His .304 figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .288.

In the past week, Bryan Reynolds’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.6% down to 0%.

Over the past 14 days, Bryan Reynolds’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal mark of 94.5 mph to 90.5 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 8th percentile when assessing his home run ability.

Geraldo Perdomo is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this game.

When assessing his home run talent, Jake McCarthy ranks in the 7th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jared Triolo is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this game.

Ryne Nelson will have the handedness advantage over Jared Triolo in today’s game.

When starting against a right-handed starter this year, Joc Pederson has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 23% of the time.

Joc Pederson will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

PNC Park has the 9th-deepest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums.

In terms of plate discipline, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s ability is quite bad, posting a 5.33 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 6th percentile.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Eugenio Suarez in today’s matchup.

Checking in at the 24th percentile, Eugenio Suarez sits with a .228 batting average this year.

Joey Bart is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.

Ryne Nelson will have the handedness advantage over Joey Bart in today’s game.

Joey Bart pulls many of his flyballs (33.9% — 80th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 9th-deepest LF fences today.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the dish, Ketel Marte will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side against Paul Skenes in this game.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Ketel Marte in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 13th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

The switch-hitting Geraldo Perdomo will be at a disadvantage batting from his weak side (0) today against Paul Skenes, Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Geraldo Perdomo in today’s game.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.345) suggests that Joc Pederson has experienced some positive variance this year with his .386 actual wOBA.

Corbin Carroll has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and will be challenged by baseball’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Corbin Carroll in today’s game.

Corbin Carroll’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 91.3-mph seasonal average has dropped to 87.4-mph over the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Ryne Nelson in the 25th percentile as it relates to his strikeout skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects PNC Park as the 2nd-worst ballpark in baseball for strikeouts.

Ryne Nelson will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Over the past 14 days, Joey Bart’s 4.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 9.4%.

Joey Bart has been lucky this year, putting up a .356 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .300 — a .056 discrepancy.

Bryan De La Cruz has shown bad plate discipline this year, grading out in the 8th percentile with a 4.74 K/BB rate.

Corbin Carroll’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, falling from 16.5% to 8.9%.

Placing in the 9th percentile, Corbin Carroll sports a .244 BABIP this year.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward, Placing in the 7th percentile, Ryne Nelson notched a 7.8% Swinging Strike% this year.

The maximum exit velocity of any player on the Pittsburgh Pirates has been 121.5 mph this year, making them the #1 club in Major League Baseball by this standard.

Ryne Nelson will have the handedness advantage against Michael A. Taylor in today’s matchup.

Ranking in the 5th percentile, Michael A. Taylor has notched a .251 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

Jared Triolo’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (4.7°) is quite a bit lower than his 12.4° mark last season.

Jared Triolo’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined in recent games, falling from 16.7% on the season to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Triolo in the 18th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke’Bryan Hayes in the 21st percentile when estimating his home run talent.

Given the 0.08 discrepancy between Paul Skenes’s 11.49 K/9 and his 11.41 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in MLB this year when it comes to strikeouts and should see negative regression in future games.

Josh Bell has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.5-mph dropping to 85.4-mph in the last 7 days.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.285) provides evidence that Josh Bell has been very fortunate this year with his .304 actual wOBA.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Ketel Marte has had some very good luck this year. His .382 rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .363.

Typically, hitters like Gabriel Moreno who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Paul Skenes.

Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Gabriel Moreno in today’s matchup.