D-Backs vs Padres match player stats | 2025 Series Game 3 Sunday, September 28th

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ARI @ SD

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D-Backs @ Padres Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Teams : Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Series : Series Game 3
Date : Todays Game is on Sunday, September 28th
Time : 28/09/25 15:10:00 PM EST First Pitch

Positives for the Arizona Diamondbacks Game Today

Brandon Pfaadt has averaged 92.5 adjusted pitches per outing this year, grading out in the 81st percentile.

It is expected that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Emil Jimenez) calling pitches in today’s game.

Petco Park ranks as the #26 venue in Major League Baseball for batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Out of every team on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Brandon Pfaadt’s four-seam fastball rate has decreased by 9.7% from last season to this one (33.4% to 23.7%) .

Petco Park ranks as the #5 park in the majors for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which often leads to worse offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today.

Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Jackson Merrill will have the upper hand today.

Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Ketel Marte projects as the 13th-best hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ketel Marte is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.

As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the plate, Ketel Marte will bat from his bad side against Nick Pivetta today.

Extreme groundball hitters like Ildemaro Vargas generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like JP Sears.

The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the weakest out of all the teams in action today.

Ildemaro Vargas has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 89.7-mph average to last season’s 86.7-mph average.

Manny Machado’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.

Manny Machado hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Manny Machado will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jake Cronenworth will hold the platoon advantage against Brandon Pfaadt in today’s matchup.

Jake Cronenworth will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 9th-best batter in baseball.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Fernando Tatis Jr. will hold that advantage today.

Geraldo Perdomo is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

Geraldo Perdomo’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 13% to 20.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

Gabriel Moreno is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

Nick Pivetta will have the handedness advantage against Gabriel Moreno in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Freddy Fermin hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

Freddy Fermin will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Freddy Fermin has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph to 91.4-mph over the past week.

Freddy Fermin’s launch angle lately (19.3° over the last two weeks) is considerably higher than his 13.3° seasonal figure.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corbin Carroll ranks as the 18th-best batter in MLB.

Corbin Carroll is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

The Barrel% of Corbin Carroll has significantly improved, with an increase from 7.3% last year to 14.5% this year.

Negatives with the San Diego Padres Game Today

Petco Park has the shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums.

Among all major league parks, Petco Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for bats.

Playing on the road generally weakens pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Brandon Pfaadt in today’s game.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup today is the San Diego Padres with a 17.7% underlying K%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Petco Park as the 5th-worst field in baseball for boosting offensive stats to left-handed batters.

When it comes to plate discipline, Jackson Merrill’s skill is quite bad, sporting a 3.37 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 24th percentile.

Petco Park projects as the #25 ballpark in the league for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Petco Park projects as the #26 ballpark in Major League Baseball for overall righty offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Ketel Marte will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

Ketel Marte’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 94-mph figure last season has dropped to 90.6-mph.

Ketel Marte has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .283 mark is significantly inflated relative to his .262 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Petco Park grades out as the #25 park in the game for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Ketel Marte’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off lately, falling from 14.6% on the season to 5% over the last week.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Ketel Marte has been very fortunate this year. His .379 figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .363.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ildemaro Vargas in the 4th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

Ildemaro Vargas is projected to hit 8th in the lineup today.

Ildemaro Vargas will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

In the past 7 days, Ildemaro Vargas’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal average of 87.5 mph to 84.2 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ildemaro Vargas in the 6th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 4.1°, Ildemaro Vargas has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-3.5°) in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Brandon Pfaadt will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Manny Machado today.

Jake Cronenworth is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this matchup.

With a 11.800 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Jake Cronenworth finds himself in the 19th percentile for power.

Checking in at the 23rd percentile for power, Jake Cronenworth has hit 12.7 HRs per 600 plate appearances this year.

Brandon Pfaadt will have the handedness advantage over Fernando Tatis Jr. today.

Fernando Tatis Jr.’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last season to this one, going from 48.8% to 41.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 17th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Geraldo Perdomo today.

Geraldo Perdomo has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 6% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the past week.

Over the past two weeks, Geraldo Perdomo’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal mark of 88.8 mph to 84.1 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Geraldo Perdomo’s true offensive ability to be a .316, suggesting that he has been very fortunate this year given the .055 disparity between that figure and his actual .371 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 22nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Gabriel Moreno has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Gabriel Moreno will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Gabriel Moreno has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.3% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last week.

Gabriel Moreno’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 90.1-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 82.7-mph in the past week.

Freddy Fermin is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this matchup.

Hitting from the same side that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Freddy Fermin will have a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

By putting up a .276 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Freddy Fermin is positioned in the 6th percentile for offensive ability.

With a 7.100 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Freddy Fermin is ranked in the 9th percentile for power.

Corbin Carroll will hold the platoon advantage over Nick Pivetta in today’s matchup.

Corbin Carroll pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.3% — 77th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences today.

Corbin Carroll will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Over the past week, Corbin Carroll’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal figure of 94.5 mph to 86.9 mph.

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