
ARI @ HOU






Todays Matchup Details
Todays Game is on Friday, September 6th
06/09/24 20:10:00 PM EST First Pitch
Positive Match Player Stats for D-Backs vs Astros Matchup Today
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake McCarthy in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.
Jake McCarthy has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
There has been a significant improvement in Jake McCarthy’s launch angle from last year’s 7.1° to 10.2° this season.
Posting a .291 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Jake McCarthy has performed in the 95th percentile.
Jake McCarthy has compiled a .344 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 82nd percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Bell in the 81st percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.
Josh Bell is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.
The #5 venue in the league for boosting home runs to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.
Josh Bell has seen a big increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 88.6-mph average.
Geraldo Perdomo has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.
The 2nd-shallowest left field fences in Major League Baseball are found in Minute Maid Park.
The switch-hitting Geraldo Perdomo will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Framber Valdez.
Geraldo Perdomo’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, going from 13.4% on the season to 17.2% in the past two weeks.
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Alex Bregman is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.
Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Alex Bregman will hold that advantage today.
Alex Bregman’s launch angle recently (27.9° in the past two weeks) is a considerable increase over his 18.7° seasonal angle.
Because of Brandon Pfaadt’s large platoon split, Jason Heyward will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.
Jason Heyward will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which should bolster all of his stats.
Jason Heyward’s launch angle of late (37.5° in the last week’s worth of games) is significantly higher than his 9.9° seasonal angle.
In terms of his batting average, Jason Heyward has suffered from bad luck this year. His .207 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .234.
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Corbin Carroll is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.
The #5 park in the league for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.
Corbin Carroll has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
In the last week’s worth of games, Corbin Carroll’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.9% up to 21.1%.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Yainer Diaz (the Astros’s expected catcher in today’s game) is considered to be a weak pitch framer.
Framber Valdez’s 93.5-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.2-mph decrease from last year’s 94.7-mph mark.
The maximum exit velocity of any player on the Arizona Diamondbacks has been 117 mph this year, ranking them as the #7 club in Major League Baseball by this metric.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.
Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Jeremy Pena will hold that advantage in today’s game.
Over the last week, Jeremy Pena’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.1% up to 20%.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 94th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.
Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Eugenio Suarez will have an advantage in today’s matchup.
Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.6% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.
Extreme flyball hitters like Eugenio Suarez are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Framber Valdez.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz as the 17th-best hitter in the majors when it comes to his batting average talent.
Yainer Diaz is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.
Yainer Diaz will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.
When it comes to his home runs, Yainer Diaz has been unlucky this year. His 18.3 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 21.3.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 95th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.
Christian Walker is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.
Christian Walker will have the handedness advantage over Framber Valdez in today’s game.
Christian Walker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.7% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Framber Valdez in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his strikeout skill.
Recording 95.3 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Framber Valdez places in the 91st percentile.
Minute Maid Park ranks as the #8 stadium in the majors for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Framber Valdez has a large reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 6 opposite-handed batters in this matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.
Eugenio Suarez has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 92.7-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 88.6-mph EV.
Kevin Newman will hold the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today’s matchup.
In notching a .274 batting average this year, Kevin Newman is ranked in the 83rd percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.
Jose Altuve is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.
Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Jose Altuve will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats.
When estimating his overall offensive skill, Yainer Diaz ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Alex Bregman’s 18.7° launch angle (an advanced standard to assess a hitter’s ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most flyball-inducing in the league: 89th percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.
Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Yordan Alvarez is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.
Given Brandon Pfaadt’s large platoon split, Yordan Alvarez will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today.
Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
Sporting a .275 Isolated Power (ISO) this year, Jason Heyward finds himself in the 76th percentile.
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Randal Grichuk ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Randal Grichuk is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.
Randal Grichuk will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today’s matchup.
Randal Grichuk pulls many of his flyballs (33.9% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Minute Maid Park has the smallest outfield in MLB — generally good for dingers.
Ben Gamel will hold the platoon advantage over Brandon Pfaadt in today’s matchup… and the cherry on top, Pfaadt has a large platoon split.
Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Ben Gamel will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.
This season, Christian Walker has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 94.8 mph compared to last year’s 91.2 mph mark.
When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Brandon Pfaadt in the 79th percentile among all starting pitchers in the majors.
In his last GS, Brandon Pfaadt was firing on all cylinders and accumulated 10 strikeouts.
Out of all starters, Brandon Pfaadt’s fastball spin rate of 2556 rpm is in the 97th percentile this year.
As it relates to plate discipline, Geraldo Perdomo’s talent is quite impressive, putting up a 1.88 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 82nd percentile.
Jeremy Pena’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, rising from 13.6% on the season to 26.7% in the past week.
Corbin Carroll has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph to 93.4-mph over the last 14 days.
Ben Gamel has been hot of late, hitting his way to a .344 wOBA in the last two weeks.
When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Jeremy Pena has been unlucky this year. His .308 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .329.
Yordan Alvarez has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 14.4% seasonal rate to 19.4% over the last 14 days.
Over the past 14 days, Jose Altuve’s 26.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.5%.
In the past week, Randal Grichuk’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.1% up to 28.6%.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s estimation, Brandon Pfaadt’s overall pitching talent ranks in the 81st percentile among all SPs in the majors right now.
Yainer Diaz has notched a .343 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 82nd percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
With a .308 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Yainer Diaz grades out in the 98th percentile.
Negative Match Player Stats with D-Backs vs Astros
Jake McCarthy is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 10th-worst ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average.
Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.
Framber Valdez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jake McCarthy in today’s game.
Typically, bats like Jake McCarthy who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Framber Valdez.
Minute Maid Park has the 3rd-tallest fences among all major league stadiums.
In today’s matchup, Josh Bell is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.3% rate (90th percentile).
Typically, bats like Josh Bell who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Framber Valdez.
Josh Bell will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 15th percentile when assessing his home run talent.
Geraldo Perdomo will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.
In the last week, Geraldo Perdomo’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal EV of 88.9 mph to 81.5 mph.
Geraldo Perdomo’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, falling from 19% to 13.4%.
Because of Brandon Pfaadt’s large platoon split, Alex Bregman will be at a colossal disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in today’s matchup.
Today, Alex Bregman is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.3% rate (82nd percentile).
Out of every team playing today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jason Heyward in the 8th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.
Jason Heyward is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this game.
26% of the time that Jason Heyward has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been pulled from the game early.
Framber Valdez will hold the platoon advantage against Corbin Carroll in today’s matchup.
Playing on the road typically diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Corbin Carroll in today’s game.
Corbin Carroll’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last year to this one, decreasing from 40.3% to 34.1%.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Framber Valdez as the 12th-best starter in Major League Baseball currently.
The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order today (.313 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount weaker than their .333 wOBA this year.
It may be smart to expect worse results for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
The #6 park in baseball for suppressing batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.
Jeremy Pena has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (66% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today.
Considering Brandon Pfaadt’s large platoon split, Jeremy Pena will be at a huge disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate today.
Over the last 7 days, Jeremy Pena’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal average of 91.4 mph to 86.5 mph.
Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.
Eugenio Suarez will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.
Brandon Pfaadt will hold the platoon advantage against Yainer Diaz in today’s matchup… and it’s an even bigger mismatch considering Pfaadt’s large platoon split.
Yainer Diaz has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will be challenged by baseball’s 9th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Christian Walker today.
Corbin Carroll’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, falling from 16.5% to 11.1%.
The #10 venue in the game for suppressing batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.
Eugenio Suarez has posted a .276 BABIP this year, checking in at the 25th percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin Newman in the 2nd percentile when it comes to his home run ability.
Kevin Newman is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today’s game.
Kevin Newman has been pulled from the game early 23% of the time when starting against a lefty on the mound this year.
Brandon Pfaadt will hold the platoon advantage against Jose Altuve today… and it’s an even bigger mismatch considering Pfaadt’s large platoon split.
Jose Altuve has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.7% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past 7 days.
Jose Altuve has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.2-mph dropping to 82.5-mph in the last week.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake McCarthy in the 9th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.
Over the last 7 days, Yainer Diaz’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.9% down to 0%.
Yordan Alvarez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 8th-deepest CF fences today.
Yordan Alvarez has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .311 rate is a fair amount higher than his .289 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Jason Heyward pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.3% — 94th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 9th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
45% of the time that Randal Grichuk has started against a left-handed pitcher this year, he has been pulled from the game early.
Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Randal Grichuk in today’s matchup.
Randal Grichuk has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .283 figure is quite a bit higher than his .247 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Ben Gamel is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup.
When starting against a right-handed starter this year, Ben Gamel has been pinch hit for 18% of the time.
Compared to his seasonal angle of 11.2°, Ben Gamel has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-1.8°) over the past two weeks.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Pfaadt to throw 85 pitches in this game (11th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Houston Astros with a 20.8% underlying K%.
Playing on the road generally diminishes pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Brandon Pfaadt in today’s game.
Brandon Pfaadt’s sinker rate has spiked by 12.1% from last year to this one (9.9% to 22%) .
Geraldo Perdomo’s BABIP skill is projected in the 15th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 21st percentile when assessing his home run skill.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ben Gamel’s true offensive ability to be a .298, suggesting that he has been lucky this year given the .046 deviation between that mark and his actual .344 wOBA.
In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Yordan Alvarez has experienced some positive variance this year. His .403 mark has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .387.
The Houston Astros projected lineup projects as the 4th-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.
The Houston Astros have been the 8th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward, Alex Bregman’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased recently; his 90.4-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 88.1-mph in the last two weeks.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin Newman in the 15th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.
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