Todays Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Cubs at Royals Matchup Prediction for Today

As we approach the third game in this interleague series, the Kansas City Royals are set to host the Chicago Cubs at Kauffman Stadium on July 28, 2024. The Royals, sporting a 57-48 record, are having an above-average season and are currently favored to win with a moneyline of -170, translating to an implied win probability of 61%. On the flip side, the Cubs, with a 50-56 record, are having a below-average season and enter the game as underdogs with a moneyline of +150 and an implied win probability of 39%., Kansas City will send left-handed pitcher Cole Ragans to the mound. Ragans has been stellar this season, boasting a 3.23 ERA and earning a spot as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Despite his strong ERA, Ragans is projected to allow 2.5 earned runs over an average of 5.4 innings today, which is considered above average. However, his projections for hits and walks allowed (5.2 and 2.1 respectively) are less favorable., The Cubs will counter with right-hander Javier Assad, who, despite a respectable 3.15 ERA this season, has been flagged by advanced metrics for potential regression. Assad’s 4.52 xFIP suggests he’s been lucky and might see his performance decline. His projections for today are not encouraging, with 3.1 earned runs, 5.8 hits, and 1.6 walks allowed over 5.1 innings, all of which point to potential struggles., Offensively, Kansas City holds a slight edge. Ranked 12th in overall offense, the Royals have been particularly effective in batting average (11th) and stolen bases (8th). Bobby Witt Jr. has been on fire lately, hitting .500 with a 1.372 OPS over the last week. In contrast, the Cubs are ranked 22nd in offense, struggling with both batting average (23rd) and home runs (23rd). However, Seiya Suzuki has been a bright spot, hitting .348 with a 1.096 OPS over the past week., Given the Royals’ superior starting pitching, marginally better offense, and stronger bullpen, they are well-positioned to secure a win in this matchup. Expect Kansas City to capitalize on these advantages and take the series against the Cubs.

Sunday Series Game 3 Prediction Explination for Cubs vs Royals Matchup

Javier Assad has recorded 14.8 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 18th percentile., Javier Assad – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155), Seiya Suzuki has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.6-mph to 95.6-mph in the last week’s worth of games., Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165), According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen projects as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in the league., Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline, Cole Ragans has a large reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 6 opposite-handed hitters today., Cole Ragans – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115), As it relates to his batting average, Adam Frazier has had some very poor luck this year. His .196 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .244., Adam Frazier – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+200), Hunter Renfroe pulls many of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 4th-deepest LF fences today., Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180), Nick Loftin has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.05 Units / 29% ROI), Nick Loftin – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-185)

A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under., Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it., Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs., A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day., xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can., This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.