Cubs @ Rockies Series Game 2 Matchup Details

Positives for the Chicago Cubs Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Coors Field as the 8th-best ballpark in the league for righty home runs.

Coors Field sits at the highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Warming Bernabel will hold that advantage today.

Warming Bernabel has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 90-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal EV of 87.3-mph.

Warming Bernabel’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, going from 13.6% on the season to 33.3% over the last week.

The #1 stadium in MLB for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Coors Field as the best ballpark in the league for right-handed batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brenton Doyle in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Brenton Doyle is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.

Brenton Doyle has big-time power (79th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (27.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Javier Assad struggles to strike batters out (21st percentile K%) — great news for Doyle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brenton Doyle in the 79th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Brenton Doyle will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

When estimating his home run talent, Hunter Goodman ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hunter Goodman is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Hunter Goodman has big-time power (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (28.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Javier Assad doesn’t generate many whiffs (18th percentile K%) — great news for Goodman.

Hunter Goodman will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Hunter Goodman’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 33.6% to 38.9%.

Jordan Beck’s BABIP talent is projected in the 83rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jordan Beck is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Jordan Beck will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Jordan Beck’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 16.6% on the season to 23.1% over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best field in the league for lefty batting average.

Yanquiel Fernandez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Javier Assad in today’s game.

Yanquiel Fernandez will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

Coors Field grades out as the #8 park in baseball for lefty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Matt Shaw’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Matt Shaw’s 26.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.1%.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.258) implies that Matt Shaw has been unlucky this year with his .228 actual batting average.

Matt Shaw has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .303 mark is considerably lower than his .322 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Karros in the 91st percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Kyle Karros will hold that advantage today.

Alex MacKay profiles as a Huge Pitchers Umpire and is anticipated to be in charge of the strike zone today.

McCade Brown will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats across the board.

The 3rd-best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the Chicago Cubs.

Coors Field grades out as the #1 ballpark in the majors for batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The 10.1% Barrel% of the Chicago Cubs makes them the #5 group of hitters in baseball this year by this stat.

As a team, Chicago Cubs bats have done well as it relates to hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (between 23° and 34°), placing 2nd-best in MLB.

Carson Kelly’s launch angle in recent games (31.9° in the past two weeks’ worth of games) is significantly better than his 16.1° seasonal figure.

Carson Kelly has posted a .353 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, placing in the 87th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Ranking in the 75th percentile, Carson Kelly sports a .345 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Kelly in the 76th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

As it relates to his batting average ability, Nico Hoerner is projected as the 14th-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Nico Hoerner has made significant improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 2.4% seasonal rate to 11.1% in the last week’s worth of games.

Nico Hoerner has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 93.7-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal average of 87.2-mph.

Compared to his seasonal average of 12.8°, Nico Hoerner has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 21.8° angle over the last week.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Ian Happ ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ian Happ is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.

As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Ian Happ will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (McCade Brown) in this game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 12th-best batter in Major League Baseball.

Kyle Tucker is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.

Considering McCade Brown’s large platoon split, Kyle Tucker will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today.

When it comes to his home run skill, Mickey Moniak ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Mickey Moniak is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

Batting from the opposite that Javier Assad throws from, Mickey Moniak will have the upper hand today.

Mickey Moniak will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 86th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Dansby Swanson has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.2-mph to 93-mph in the last 14 days.

Dansby Swanson’s launch angle lately (22.9° in the last two weeks’ worth of games) is significantly higher than his 12.9° seasonal angle.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

When estimating his home run talent, Michael Busch ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Michael Busch is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.

Michael Busch will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against McCade Brown today… and the cherry on top, Brown has a large platoon split.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Michael Busch ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Tovar in the 85th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Ezequiel Tovar is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Ezequiel Tovar will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Over the past two weeks, Ezequiel Tovar has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 23.7° compared to his seasonal mark of 17.1°.

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 15th-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.

Seiya Suzuki has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 11.5% rate last season to 18.4% this season.

It may be best to expect stronger performance for the Colorado Rockies offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Carson Kelly (the Cubs’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) profiles as a weak pitch framer.

Javier Assad will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

The Colorado Rockies have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Hunter Goodman, Jordan Beck, Mickey Moniak, Brenton Doyle).

Negatives with the Colorado Rockies Game Today

As it relates to his home run skill, Warming Bernabel ranks in the 17th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Warming Bernabel has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (61% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game.

Batting from the same side that Javier Assad throws from, Warming Bernabel will have a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

Warming Bernabel has been cold in recent games, notching a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power) in the last week’s worth of games.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.278) suggests that Warming Bernabel has experienced some positive variance this year with his .317 actual wOBA.

The Chicago Cubs outfield defense projects as the 3rd-best out of every team in action today.

Javier Assad will have the handedness advantage over Brenton Doyle today.

With a .273 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Brenton Doyle grades out in the 6th percentile.

Sporting a .219 batting average this year, Brenton Doyle is ranked in the 10th percentile.

Brenton Doyle has exhibited poor plate discipline this year, placing in the 11th percentile with a 4.55 K/BB rate.

Batting from the same side that Javier Assad throws from, Hunter Goodman will be in a tough position in today’s game.

In the last week’s worth of games, Hunter Goodman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.5% down to 0%.

Hunter Goodman’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off of late, decreasing from 38.9% on the season to 0% in the last 7 days.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Hunter Goodman has been lucky this year. His .358 rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .288.

Hunter Goodman has displayed poor plate discipline this year, placing in the 9th percentile with a 4.85 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Goodman in the 17th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Hitting from the same side that Javier Assad throws from, Jordan Beck will be at a disadvantage in today’s game.

Jordan Beck has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 10% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past 7 days.

Jordan Beck’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 87.3-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 77.2-mph over the last 7 days.

Jordan Beck’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased recently, decreasing from 45% on the season to 28.6% over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jordan Beck’s true offensive talent to be a .300, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .035 gap between that figure and his actual .335 wOBA.

With a 3.95 K/BB rate this year, Jordan Beck has shown weak plate discipline, checking in at the 18th percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Yanquiel Fernandez ranks in the 13th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Yanquiel Fernandez is projected to bat 8th in the lineup today.

This year, Yanquiel Fernandez has been pinch hit for in 27% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.204) suggests that Yanquiel Fernandez has had positive variance on his side this year with his .272 actual wOBA.

Matt Shaw is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card today.

McCade Brown will hold the platoon advantage against Matt Shaw in today’s game… and it’s an even bigger mismatch considering Brown’s large platoon split.

Matt Shaw will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Matt Shaw has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 6.9% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last 7 days.

In the last week’s worth of games, Matt Shaw’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal EV of 91.4 mph to 89 mph.

Kyle Karros is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Javier Assad throws from, Kyle Karros will have a tough challenge in today’s game.

Kyle Karros’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 87.7-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 85.2-mph over the last week.

Kyle Karros’s launch angle in recent games (1° in the past week) is significantly lower than his 12.9° seasonal angle.

Over the last 7 days, Kyle Karros has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to evaluate power).

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, McCade Brown is projected to throw 76 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-least of the day.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Coors Field as the worst field in Major League Baseball for strikeouts.

McCade Brown wasn’t on when it came to striking batters out in his last outing and compiled 2 Ks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Kelly in the 11th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

Carson Kelly is penciled in 9th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

McCade Brown will have the handedness advantage over Carson Kelly in today’s matchup… and it’s an even larger mismatch considering Brown’s large platoon split.

Carson Kelly will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Carson Kelly has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 10.4% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last week.

Carson Kelly has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.9-mph dropping to 79-mph in the last week.

Nico Hoerner is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game.

Considering McCade Brown’s large platoon split, Nico Hoerner will be at a big disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate today.

Nico Hoerner will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Based on Statcast metrics, Nico Hoerner ranks in the 5th percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 4.400.

Nico Hoerner has hit 5.4 dingers per 600 plate appearances this year, ranking in the 6th percentile for power.

When estimating his home run ability, Nico Hoerner ranks in the 3rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Ian Happ in today’s game.

From last year to this one, Ian Happ’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 20.1% to 14.9%.

Sporting a .271 BABIP this year, Ian Happ has performed in the 23rd percentile.

Kyle Tucker will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Kyle Tucker has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph dropping to 85.2-mph over the past two weeks.

When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Mickey Moniak has been pulled from the game early 22% of the time.

Mickey Moniak is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#3-best of the day).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mickey Moniak’s true offensive ability to be a .313, implying that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .020 gap between that figure and his actual .333 wOBA.

Mickey Moniak has shown bad plate discipline this year, checking in at the 6th percentile with a 5.24 K/BB rate.

Dansby Swanson is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today’s game.

Given McCade Brown’s large platoon split, Dansby Swanson will be at a gigantic disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in this game.

Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Dansby Swanson in today’s game.

Posting a 4 K/BB rate this year, Dansby Swanson has displayed poor plate discipline, grading out in the 18th percentile.

10% of the time that Michael Busch has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been pulled from the game early.

Michael Busch will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Over the past 14 days, Michael Busch’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 14.9% down to 6.5%.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 16.5°, Michael Busch has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (7.7°) over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Michael Busch’s true offensive skill to be a .342, indicating that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .016 gap between that mark and his actual .358 wOBA.

Javier Assad will hold the platoon advantage against Ezequiel Tovar in today’s game.

Ezequiel Tovar has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 10% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

In the past 14 days, Ezequiel Tovar’s 25% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 51.5%.

With a .294 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Ezequiel Tovar is positioned in the 21st percentile.

Ezequiel Tovar has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph dropping to 85.3-mph over the last 14 days.

Posting a 5.02 K/BB rate this year, Ezequiel Tovar has demonstrated poor plate discipline, grading out in the 7th percentile.

Given McCade Brown’s large platoon split, Seiya Suzuki will be at a massive disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in today’s game.

Seiya Suzuki will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Seiya Suzuki has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 92-mph dropping to 85.2-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

Over the past 7 days, Seiya Suzuki’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 18.4%.

The worst projected offense on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Colorado Rockies.

With 7 bats who share the same handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Javier Assad figures to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

Colorado’s 88.7-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in the league: #26 overall.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Javier Assad in the 18th percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Javier Assad to throw 80 pitches in this matchup (3rd-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

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