Cubs @ Rockies Matchup Details

Positives for the Chicago Cubs Game Today

The #6 field in the league for boosting home runs to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.

Coors Field sits at the highest altitude in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report predicts for the 4th-best hitting conditions of the day.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Warming Bernabel will hold that advantage in today’s game.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Warming Bernabel’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 87-mph over the course of the season to 90.8-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Coors Field as the best venue in the league for righty batting average.

The #1 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brenton Doyle in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Brenton Doyle is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brenton Doyle in the 79th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

When it comes to his home run ability, Hunter Goodman ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hunter Goodman will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Hunter Goodman’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 33.6% to 39%.

Jordan Beck is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.

Jordan Beck will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Beck in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Matt Shaw’s 32% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.3%.

Matt Shaw has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average this year; his .227 rate is quite a bit lower than his .259 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Matt Shaw has been unlucky this year. His .302 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .323.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Karros in the 91st percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Kyle Karros has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

Kyle Karros will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The Colorado Rockies have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future,Coors Field profiles as the #1 field in MLB for batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Playing on the road generally weakens pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Cade Horton today.

The Colorado Rockies have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jordan Beck, Hunter Goodman, Brenton Doyle, Mickey Moniak).

Given the 0.8 discrepancy between Cade Horton’s 7.40 K/9 and his 8.19 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball this year in terms of strikeouts and should see positive regression in future games.

Compared to his seasonal average of 16.1°, Carson Kelly has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 35.1° angle over the last two weeks.

By putting up a .355 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Carson Kelly is positioned in the 89th percentile for offensive ability.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Carson Kelly ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner as the 14th-best batter in Major League Baseball when it comes to his batting average skill.

Nico Hoerner is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

Nico Hoerner has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 92.6-mph average over the past week to his seasonal average of 87-mph.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Ian Happ ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ian Happ is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.

Coors Field grades out as the #6 park in baseball for left-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Coors Field grades out as the #1 stadium in the majors for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. German Marquez has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 55.6% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.

Chicago Cubs batters as a unit grade out 5th- in MLB for power this year when assessing with their 10.1% Barrel%.

With a 0.9 deviation between German Marquez’s 6.68 K/9 and his 7.58 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the league this year when it comes to strikeouts and figures to see better results the rest of the season.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 11th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mickey Moniak in the 87th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

Mickey Moniak has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (59% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Cade Horton throws from, Mickey Moniak will have the upper hand today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 85th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Dansby Swanson has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.3-mph to 93.2-mph over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 86th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Tyler Freeman is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.

Tyler Freeman will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Freeman in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

When estimating his home run ability, Michael Busch ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Michael Busch is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Tovar in the 85th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

Ezequiel Tovar will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

Compared to his seasonal average of 15.4°, Ezequiel Tovar has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 24.2° angle in the past 14 days.

Negatives with the Colorado Rockies Game Today

When it comes to his home run skill, Warming Bernabel ranks in the 17th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Warming Bernabel has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (63% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.

Hitting from the same side that Cade Horton throws from, Warming Bernabel will not have the upper hand today.

Warming Bernabel has been cold in recent games, putting up a 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to study power) in the past week’s worth of games.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Warming Bernabel has experienced some positive variance this year. His .322 figure has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .276.

The Chicago Cubs infield defense projects as the strongest out of every team playing today.

Warming Bernabel’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off lately, decreasing from 42.4% on the season to 16.7% in the last week.

Batting from the same side that Cade Horton throws from, Brenton Doyle will not have the upper hand in today’s game.

By putting up a .275 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Brenton Doyle finds himself in the 8th percentile.

With a 4.42 K/BB rate this year, Brenton Doyle has demonstrated weak plate discipline, ranking in the 12th percentile.

Hunter Goodman has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (95% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

Batting from the same side that Cade Horton throws from, Hunter Goodman will have a tough matchup today.

Hunter Goodman has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 12.5% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last week.

Hunter Goodman’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined of late, decreasing from 39% on the season to 14.3% in the last week’s worth of games.

Hunter Goodman’s BABIP talent is projected in the 19th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hunter Goodman has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.3-mph dropping to 84.3-mph over the past week.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.288) suggests that Hunter Goodman has experienced some positive variance this year with his .359 actual wOBA.

Cade Horton will have the handedness advantage against Jordan Beck in today’s matchup.

Over the past 14 days, Jordan Beck’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10% down to 3.6%.

Jordan Beck’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 87.3-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 83.9-mph in the past 14 days.

Despite posting a .336 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jordan Beck has had positive variance on his side given the .036 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .300.

With a 3.88 K/BB rate this year, Jordan Beck has demonstrated bad plate discipline, checking in at the 19th percentile.

Jordan Beck’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased recently, going from 45% on the season to 27.3% over the last 7 days.

Matt Shaw is projected to hit 9th in the batting order today.

Hitting from the same side that German Marquez throws from, Matt Shaw will have a disadvantage today.

Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Matt Shaw in today’s matchup.

Matt Shaw has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

Matt Shaw’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 91.4-mph seasonal average has lowered to 89.3-mph in the last week.

Cade Horton will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Karros in today’s matchup.

Kyle Karros has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.6-mph dropping to 84.5-mph over the past 7 days.

Kyle Karros’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off lately, falling from 52.6% on the season to 27.3% in the past week.

Kyle Karros has been cold of late, posting a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to evaluate power) in the last week.

Kyle Karros’s launch angle recently (7.8° over the last 7 days) is a significant dropoff from his 13.1° seasonal figure.

The Colorado Rockies projected offense grades out as the 3rd-worst of the day in terms of overall hitting ability.

Cade Horton will have the handedness advantage against 7 opposing batters in this game.

Among all SPs, Cade Horton’s fastball velocity of 95.1 mph ranks in the 82nd percentile this year.

Cade Horton’s 2482-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 90th percentile among all SPs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cade Horton to throw 76 pitches in today’s game (least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Coors Field as the worst ballpark in the game for strikeouts.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Kelly in the 11th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Carson Kelly is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

German Marquez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carson Kelly in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Carson Kelly in today’s game.

Carson Kelly has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 10.6% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last 7 days.

Carson Kelly has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph dropping to 80.8-mph in the last week.

German Marquez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nico Hoerner today.

Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Nico Hoerner in today’s matchup.

Based on Statcast data, Nico Hoerner is in the 4th percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 3.800.

Grading out in the 2nd percentile, the hardest ball Nico Hoerner has hit this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 104.7 mph — a reliable indication of underlying power skill.

Placing in the 6th percentile for power, Nico Hoerner has averaged 5.4 homers per 600 plate appearances this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner in the 3rd percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ian Happ today.

In notching a .270 BABIP this year, Ian Happ grades out in the 22nd percentile.

German Marquez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which should boost all of his metrics in all categories.

In his previous game started, German Marquez turned in a great performance and conceded 0 ER.

With a 1.02 gap between German Marquez’s 5.67 ERA and his 4.65 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the majors this year and figures to see positive regression in future games.

German Marquez has posted a .330 BABIP this year, a sign that he has been one of the unluckiest hurlers in the majors on balls in play with better performance likely coming.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects German Marquez to throw 83 pitches today (5th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

Kyle Tucker will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Kyle Tucker’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (16.7°) is significantly lower than his 19.7° figure last year.

Kyle Tucker’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased in recent games, going from 42.4% on the season to 29% over the past two weeks.

This year, Mickey Moniak has been pinch hit for in 22% of his appearances when starting against righty hurler.

Despite posting a .335 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Mickey Moniak has been lucky given the .021 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .314.

Posting a 5.13 K/BB rate this year, Mickey Moniak has displayed bad plate discipline, placing in the 6th percentile.

Dansby Swanson is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game.

German Marquez will have the handedness advantage over Dansby Swanson today.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Dansby Swanson in today’s matchup.

Dansby Swanson has displayed weak plate discipline this year, placing in the 17th percentile with a 3.98 K/BB rate.

When estimating his home run talent, Tyler Freeman ranks in the 14th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Batting from the same side that Cade Horton throws from, Tyler Freeman will have a disadvantage in today’s game.

Tyler Freeman’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 90.3-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 86.3-mph in the past 7 days.

There has been a significant decline in Tyler Freeman’s launch angle from last season’s 12.9° to 8.1° this season.

Tyler Freeman’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined in recent games, decreasing from 12.9% on the season to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

Tyler Freeman is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Chicago (#1-best of all teams today).

Michael Busch has been pinch hit for 10% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Michael Busch today.

Michael Busch’s launch angle in recent games (9.3° in the past two weeks) is considerably worse than his 16.5° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Michael Busch’s true offensive talent to be a .341, implying that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .016 difference between that figure and his actual .357 wOBA.

Ezequiel Tovar has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (91% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.

Batting from the same side that Cade Horton throws from, Ezequiel Tovar encounters a tough challenge in today’s game.

In the past two weeks, Ezequiel Tovar’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.1% down to 0%.

Ezequiel Tovar’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined recently, decreasing from 51.5% on the season to 24.1% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Ezequiel Tovar’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 89.6-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 85-mph over the last 14 days.

Checking in at the 18th percentile, Ezequiel Tovar has posted a .291 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

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