Cardinals @ Rays Matchup Details

Positives for the St. Louis Cardinals Game Today

The #4 stadium in baseball for boosting home runs to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is George M. Steinbrenner Field.

George M. Steinbrenner Field has the shortest average fence height in the league.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 86°.

Thomas Saggese has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Thomas Saggese has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 5.9% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Thomas Saggese in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Thomas Saggese has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph to 96.4-mph over the past week.

As it relates to his home run talent, Junior Caminero ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Junior Caminero is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Junior Caminero ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest out of all the teams in action today.

Junior Caminero will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chandler Simpson as the 14th-best hitter in the majors as it relates to his batting average skill.

Chandler Simpson is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

Chandler Simpson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sonny Gray in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles George M. Steinbrenner Field as the 4th-best stadium in MLB for lefty home runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles George M. Steinbrenner Field as the 6th-best field in the league for home runs.

Joe Boyle has relied on his slider 6.8% less often this season (32.2%) than he did last year (39%).

Joe Boyle has recorded a 5.34 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that deals with the variables most within a pitcher’s control) this year, ranking in the 22nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Joe Boyle in the 83rd percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.

The St. Louis Cardinals have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jordan Walker, Pedro Pages, Thomas Saggese, Nolan Gorman).

In his last outing, Joe Boyle performed well and notched 7 strikeouts.

When estimating his home run talent, Robert Seymour ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Robert Seymour will have the handedness advantage against Sonny Gray today.

Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Robert Seymour will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Posting a 93.6-mph average exit velocity in the last week, Robert Seymour has been in great form in recent games.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Willson Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.

In the past 14 days, Willson Contreras’s 58.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48%.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.372) suggests that Willson Contreras has suffered from bad luck this year with his .343 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Sonny Gray in the 94th percentile when assessing his strikeout talent.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Pedro Pages (the Cardinals’s expected catcher today) profiles as a good pitch framer.

Sonny Gray’s 2491-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 91st percentile out of all starters.

Sonny Gray has posted an 11.9% Swinging Strike percentage this year, placing in the 80th percentile.

Sonny Gray has notched a 27.5% Strikeout% this year, grading out in the 90th percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Yandy Diaz ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Yandy Diaz is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.

When assessing his batting average ability, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 7th-best hitter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

When assessing his home run skill, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Brandon Lowe will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Brandon Lowe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.6% — 86th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ivan Herrera is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 87th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

Ivan Herrera has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Ivan Herrera has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.2-mph average to last year’s 91.5-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Lowe in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Josh Lowe is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Josh Lowe will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Hunter Feduccia will have the handedness advantage against Sonny Gray in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Hunter Feduccia will hold that advantage today.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

Lars Nootbaar will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joe Boyle in today’s game.

In the past two weeks, Lars Nootbaar’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93-mph over the course of the season to 95.7-mph in recent games.

Nolan Gorman is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

Hitting from the opposite that Joe Boyle throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an advantage in today’s game.

Nolan Gorman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.1% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Nolan Gorman’s launch angle in recent games (28.3° over the past 14 days) is quite a bit better than his 22° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run ability.

Pedro Pages has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Pedro Pages has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph to 93-mph in the past 14 days.

Over the past 14 days, Pedro Pages’s 26.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16%.

Pedro Pages has made significant strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 8.4% seasonal rate to 15.8% in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Alec Burleson will hold the platoon advantage over Joe Boyle today.

Alec Burleson has been hot of late, compiling a 93-mph average exit velocity over the last 7 days.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Jake Mangum will hold that advantage in today’s game.

In the past 14 days, Jake Mangum’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.4-mph over the course of the season to 95.5-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Negatives with the Tampa Bay Rays Game Today

Thomas Saggese is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.

Joe Boyle will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Thomas Saggese in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Thomas Saggese today.

Sporting a .267 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Thomas Saggese has performed in the 24th percentile for offensive skills.

As it relates to plate discipline, Thomas Saggese’s talent is quite poor, sporting a 7.56 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 15th percentile.

Thomas Saggese has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .259 rate is quite a bit higher than his .234 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Batting from the same side that Sonny Gray throws from, Junior Caminero will not have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.9% — 92nd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.

Junior Caminero’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off lately, falling from 36.7% on the season to 20% in the last 14 days.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (29.5) may lead us to conclude that Junior Caminero has had some very good luck this year with his 41.3 actual HR/600.

By putting up a .248 BABIP this year, Junior Caminero has performed in the 5th percentile.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Junior Caminero has experienced some positive variance this year. His .346 rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .316.

Junior Caminero has exhibited weak plate discipline this year, checking in at the 22nd percentile with a 3.65 K/BB rate.

Today, Chandler Simpson is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.3% rate (99th percentile).

In the last week’s worth of games, Chandler Simpson’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal EV of 80 mph to 64.5 mph.

Chandler Simpson’s launch angle recently (-3.5° over the past 14 days) is quite a bit worse than his 0.8° seasonal figure.

Chandler Simpson’s 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to assess power) ranks in the 0th percentile this year.

When estimating his home run talent, Chandler Simpson ranks in the 0th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Based on Statcast metrics, Chandler Simpson ranks in the 0th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at .000.

It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the St. Louis Cardinals offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 7th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

George M. Steinbrenner Field has the 5th-deepest centerfield dimensions in MLB.

With 6 hitters who share his handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Joe Boyle ought to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

Home field advantage generally improves pitcher metrics in all categories, and Joe Boyle will hold that advantage today.

Joe Boyle was firing on all cylinders in his last game started and conceded 0 ER.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Joe Boyle is projected to throw 82 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 4th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.

Robert Seymour is penciled in 8th in the lineup today.

In the past week’s worth of games, Robert Seymour has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (a reliable stat to evaluate power).

Batting from the same side that Joe Boyle throws from, Willson Contreras will be in a tough position in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Willson Contreras in today’s matchup.

Willson Contreras has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 14.7% seasonal rate has fallen off to 8.3% over the last 14 days.

Willson Contreras’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off in recent games, decreasing from 17.9% on the season to 8.3% in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sonny Gray to throw 85 pitches in today’s game (7th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

With 7 hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Sonny Gray has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.

Sonny Gray will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Sonny Gray’s 91.1-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.2-mph decrease from last season’s 92.3-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Sonny Gray in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall pitching talent.

The 3rd-weakest projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.

In his last start, Sonny Gray was firing on all cylinders and conceded 2 ER.

Sonny Gray will have the handedness advantage against Yandy Diaz today.

Yandy Diaz’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 94-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 84.5-mph in the past 7 days.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Yandy Diaz’s 7.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12%.

Yandy Diaz has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs this year; his 22.9 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit higher than his 15.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

In terms of his home runs, Brandon Lowe has been very fortunate this year. His 34.3 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 27.0.

Brandon Lowe has shown weak plate discipline this year, placing in the 20th percentile with a 3.75 K/BB rate.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Brandon Lowe has had some very good luck this year. His .346 figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .323.

Joe Boyle will have the handedness advantage against Ivan Herrera in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ivan Herrera in today’s matchup.

Over the last two weeks, Ivan Herrera’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (1.7°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 8.3°.

Ivan Herrera’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, decreasing from 16.3% to 9.5%.

Despite posting a .353 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ivan Herrera has been lucky given the .023 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .330.

As it relates to his batting average, Ivan Herrera has experienced some positive variance this year. His .289 rate has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .267.

Josh Lowe has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.

Josh Lowe has paced 11.9 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, ranking in the 21st percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

With a .287 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Josh Lowe grades out in the 14th percentile.

In notching a .358 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year, Josh Lowe is positioned in the 17th percentile.

Grading out in the 19th percentile, Josh Lowe has posted a .228 batting average this year.

Josh Lowe’s launch angle this year (7.7°) is a considerable dropoff from his 16.8° figure last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Feduccia in the 17th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Hunter Feduccia is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game.

45% of the time that Hunter Feduccia has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been pinch hit for.

This year, there has been a decline in Hunter Feduccia’s footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.6 ft/sec last year to 25.92 ft/sec currently.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Feduccia in the 22nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

In today’s matchup, Lars Nootbaar is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 41.1% rate (99th percentile).

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Lars Nootbaar today.

In the past 14 days, Lars Nootbaar’s 8.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.4%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 15th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Nolan Gorman will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

In the last week, Nolan Gorman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.8% down to 0%.

From last year to this one, Nolan Gorman’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 25% to 19%.

By putting up a .218 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Nolan Gorman finds himself in the 9th percentile.

When it comes to his home runs, Nolan Gorman has had positive variance on his side this year. His 25.4 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 21.1.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Pedro Pages ranks in the 25th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Pedro Pages is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today’s game.

When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Pedro Pages has been pinch hit for 15% of the time.

Joe Boyle will hold the platoon advantage against Pedro Pages today.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Pedro Pages in today’s matchup.

Alec Burleson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 5th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Alec Burleson in today’s matchup.

Over the past two weeks, Alec Burleson’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.2% down to 2.8%.

In the last 14 days, Alec Burleson’s 8.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 16.2%.

Alec Burleson has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .342 mark is a fair amount higher than his .321 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Alec Burleson has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .287 rate is inflated compared to his .262 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 1st percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

Jake Mangum is penciled in 7th in the lineup today.

Jake Mangum has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and will be challenged by the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Over the past two weeks, Jake Mangum’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (-2.4°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 5.1°.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Jake Mangum has been very fortunate this year. His .290 mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .273.

In terms of his batting average, Jake Mangum has been lucky this year. His .277 BA has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .249.

Jake Mangum’s -1.3° launch angle (an advanced metric to study a hitter’s ability to lift the ball for power) is among the lowest in baseball: 0th percentile.

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