Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Cardinals vs Padres Matchup Today

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Jackson Merrill ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jackson Merrill is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.

The #6 venue in baseball for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.

Petco Park has the 7th-shortest fences among all parks.

Jackson Merrill is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals has just 1 same-handed RP.

Jackson Merrill’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Jackson Merrill will hold that advantage in today’s game.

In Major League Baseball, Petco Park’s CF fences are the 3rd-shallowest.

Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Victor Scott II will have an advantage in today’s game.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Xander Bogaerts ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 5th in the batting order today.

Petco Park grades out as the #6 venue in the majors for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Xander Bogaerts will have the handedness advantage over Matthew Liberatore in today’s matchup.

Xander Bogaerts’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Xander Bogaerts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Xander Bogaerts will hold that advantage in today’s game.

When assessing his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Nick Pivetta in the 93rd percentile among all SPs in baseball.

The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Thomas Saggese, Pedro Pages, Jordan Walker).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Petco Park as the 5th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for strikeouts.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nick Pivetta in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall pitching abilities.

Nick Pivetta has tallied 17.4 outs per GS this year, ranking in the 84th percentile.

Petco Park profiles as the #26 field in MLB for BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Willson Contreras ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Willson Contreras is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.

Willson Contreras has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 14.8% seasonal rate to 20.7% in the last 14 days.

Willson Contreras has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 95.2-mph over the past 14 days.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Nolan Arenado’s true offensive skill to be a .304, implying that he has been unlucky this year given the .018 gap between that mark and his actual .286 wOBA.

In terms of plate discipline, Nolan Arenado’s talent is quite strong, posting a 1.5 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 85th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Manny Machado will hold the platoon advantage over Matthew Liberatore in today’s matchup.

Manny Machado hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Manny Machado will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Manny Machado ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 83rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

Jake Cronenworth is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals only has 1 same-handed RP.

Jake Cronenworth will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

Over the past week, Jake Cronenworth’s 68.8% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 41.6%.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 9th-best batter in the league.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.

Fernando Tatis Jr. will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore in today’s matchup.

Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Fernando Tatis Jr. will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Luis Arraez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Luis Arraez stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

When assessing his batting average talent, Luis Arraez is projected as the 2nd-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Luis Arraez will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 87th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Ivan Herrera is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

Ivan Herrera has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.1-mph average to last year’s 91.5-mph average.

Ivan Herrera has posted a .372 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile.

Checking in at the 94th percentile, Ivan Herrera has notched a .295 batting average this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

Batting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Freddy Fermin will have an advantage today.

Freddy Fermin hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Freddy Fermin will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Over the last week, Freddy Fermin’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 88.6-mph over the course of the season to 92.8-mph recently.

Freddy Fermin’s launch angle lately (24.1° over the last 14 days) is quite a bit higher than his 13.7° seasonal mark.

Matthew Liberatore’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (61.2% this year) should work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

Matthew Liberatore has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his strikeouts this year, notching a 7.14 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.88 — a 0.75 K/9 discrepancy.

With a 0.38 disparity between Matthew Liberatore’s 4.04 ERA and his 3.66 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game this year and ought to positively regress going forward.

Over the past 7 days, Pedro Pages’s 37.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.6%.

Pedro Pages has been unlucky this year, notching a .244 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .278 — a .034 discrepancy.

In the last week’s worth of games, Pedro Pages’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.1% up to 12.5%.

Alec Burleson’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Alec Burleson will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Over the last 14 days, Alec Burleson has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 10.3% to 16.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Brendan Donovan will have an edge today.

Brendan Donovan’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 45.8% to 53.3%.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Brendan Donovan ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

Jordan Walker has made notable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 9.7% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jordan Walker’s true offensive ability to be a .307, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .034 deviation between that mark and his actual .273 wOBA.

Jordan Walker has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 7.4 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is significantly deflated relative to his 16.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Negative Match Player Stats with Cardinals vs Padres

Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league parks, which often leads to lower offensive output.

According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-best for pitching of all games on the slate.

Batting from the same side that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Jackson Merrill will have a disadvantage today.

Jackson Merrill has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 12.2% seasonal rate has dropped to 4.8% over the past 7 days.

The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest among every team on the slate today.

The #9 venue in the majors for suppressing BABIP to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Victor Scott II in the 24th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

Victor Scott II is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this matchup.

The San Diego Padres outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team in action today.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Victor Scott II in today’s matchup.

Victor Scott II’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 91-mph mark last season has fallen off to 88.9-mph.

Placing in the 17th percentile for power, Xander Bogaerts has paced 9.1 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Petco Park as the 9th-worst park in Major League Baseball for RHB base hits.

Nick Pivetta has a reverse platoon split and will be disadvantaged squaring off against 6 same-handed batters in this game.

Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #8 HR venue in MLB today.

Given the 1.15 disparity between Nick Pivetta’s 2.81 ERA and his 3.96 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in MLB this year and figures to see worse results in future games.

Nick Pivetta will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats across the board.

Batting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Willson Contreras will not have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Willson Contreras in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 5th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Nick Pivetta will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nolan Arenado in today’s matchup.

Nolan Arenado will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Nolan Arenado’s average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 86.8-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 84.8-mph over the past 14 days.

Nolan Arenado’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased recently, going from 17.4% on the season to 10.8% in the past 14 days.

Manny Machado has been lucky this year, compiling a .372 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .352 — a .020 disparity.

Manny Machado’s launch angle lately (6° in the past 7 days) is significantly lower than his 14.6° seasonal figure.

Jake Cronenworth is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today’s game.

Matthew Liberatore will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jake Cronenworth in today’s game.

Jake Cronenworth’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 91.9-mph EV last season has fallen off to 89.8-mph.

Jake Cronenworth’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off recently, going from 14.8% on the season to 6.3% over the last 7 days.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 9.5°, Fernando Tatis Jr.’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls has dropped significantly lately (6.2° in the past 14 days).

Fernando Tatis Jr.’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last year to this one, going from 48.8% to 41.4%.

When it comes to his home run ability, Luis Arraez ranks in the 0th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Matthew Liberatore will hold the platoon advantage over Luis Arraez in today’s matchup.

Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 87.9-mph mark last season has decreased to 85.7-mph.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 12.7°, Luis Arraez has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (9.1°) over the last 14 days.

Nick Pivetta will have the handedness advantage against Ivan Herrera today.

Ivan Herrera has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Ivan Herrera will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

When assessing his home run ability, Freddy Fermin ranks in the 25th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Freddy Fermin is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this game.

Freddy Fermin’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, falling from 12.3% to 8.6%.

The San Diego Padres (18.2 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-prone set of batters on the slate.

With 6 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Matthew Liberatore faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.

Matthew Liberatore will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Out of all SPs, Matthew Liberatore’s fastball spin rate of 2111 rpm ranks in the 12th percentile this year.

It may be smart to expect stronger performance for the San Diego Padres offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 10th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pedro Pages in the 16th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Pedro Pages is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game.

Pedro Pages has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 13% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.

Alec Burleson will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Alec Burleson has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .287 mark is a fair amount higher than his .271 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Alec Burleson has had positive variance on his side this year. His .348 rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .331.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Brendan Donovan today.

Over the last two weeks, Brendan Donovan’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.4% down to 2.6%.

Brendan Donovan’s launch angle recently (2° over the last week) is significantly lower than his 11.1° seasonal figure.

Jordan Walker is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today’s game.

Nick Pivetta will have the handedness advantage over Jordan Walker in today’s game.

Jordan Walker will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

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