Cardinals @ Brewers Matchup Details

Positives for the St. Louis Cardinals Game Today

Sal Frelick’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Sal Frelick is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today.

American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.

Sal Frelick will have the handedness advantage over Andre Pallante today.

Sal Frelick hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

American Family Field has the 3rd-lowest average fence height in the league.

Joey Ortiz will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Joey Ortiz’s true offensive talent to be a .299, indicating that he has been unlucky this year given the .036 deviation between that mark and his actual .263 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

Jackson Chourio is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Jackson Chourio will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Thomas Saggese’s BABIP talent is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Thomas Saggese has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.9-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 89.8-mph mark.

Thomas Saggese has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 2.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is significantly deflated relative to his 9.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Thomas Saggese has put up a .344 BABIP this year, checking in at the 91st percentile.

Caleb Durbin hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Caleb Durbin will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Caleb Durbin has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 93.6-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal mark of 89.3-mph.

Posting a 1.67 K/BB rate this year, Caleb Durbin has displayed strong plate discipline, grading out in the 82nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

The 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors are found in American Family Field.

In the past two weeks, Willson Contreras has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 20.7° compared to his seasonal mark of 13.7°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Yelich as the 9th-best hitter in the game when estimating his BABIP talent.

Christian Yelich is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

Christian Yelich will have the handedness advantage over Andre Pallante today.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Christian Yelich ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Bauers in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Jake Bauers is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

Jake Bauers will have the handedness advantage over Andre Pallante in today’s game.

Batters such as Jake Bauers with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Andre Pallante who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

Jake Bauers will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

Ivan Herrera is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.

This season, Ivan Herrera has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98 mph compared to last year’s 91.5 mph mark.

Ivan Herrera has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 107.3-mph average in the last week to his seasonal figure of 98-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

The St. Louis Cardinals have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Thomas Saggese, Willson Contreras, Nolan Gorman, Pedro Pages).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles American Family Field as the best field in the game for strikeouts.

Because flyball hitters face a disadvantage against flyball pitchers, Quinn Priester (53.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 FB hitters in the opposition’s projected lineup.

Home field advantage typically improves pitcher metrics in all categories, and Quinn Priester will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s appraisal, Quinn Priester’s overall pitching ability is in the 78th percentile among all starting pitchers in the game currently.

American Family Field projects as the #25 stadium in the league for batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Quinn Priester throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have the upper hand today.

Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.5% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

When assessing his home run talent, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Nolan Gorman is penciled in 5th in the batting order today.

Nolan Gorman will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Quinn Priester in today’s game.

Extreme flyball hitters like Nolan Gorman tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Quinn Priester.

Nolan Gorman has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.4-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.2-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Brice Turang is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Brice Turang will have an advantage in today’s game.

Brice Turang hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Blake Perkins hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Blake Perkins will hold that advantage in today’s game.

In the last 14 days, Blake Perkins’s 32% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.2%.

It may be sensible to expect worse results for the Milwaukee Brewers offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in the league this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Pedro Pages (the Cardinals’s expected catcher today) is considered to be a good pitch framer.

Considering that flyball batters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Andre Pallante (58.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 3 FB hitters in the opposing team’s projected offense.

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Andre Pallante has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 11.6% more often this year (42.5%) than he did last season (30.9%).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

Alec Burleson will hold the platoon advantage over Quinn Priester in today’s matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Alec Burleson ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Alec Burleson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Negatives with the Milwaukee Brewers Game Today

American Family Field ranks as the #23 field in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.

Extreme groundball batters like Sal Frelick generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Andre Pallante.

Sal Frelick has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.5-mph dropping to 80.3-mph over the last week.

Over the past week, Sal Frelick’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 11.8%.

When assessing his home run ability, Sal Frelick ranks in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The #9 field in Major League Baseball for suppressing offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Ortiz in the 24th percentile when assessing his home run ability.

Joey Ortiz is projected to bat 9th in the lineup today.

When starting against a northpaw this year, Joey Ortiz has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 17% of the time.

The #8 field in the league for suppressing batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.

Andre Pallante will hold the platoon advantage against Joey Ortiz in today’s game.

Andre Pallante will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jackson Chourio today.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 11.5°, Jackson Chourio has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (1.8°) in the last 14 days.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.327) implies that Jackson Chourio has been lucky this year with his .341 actual wOBA.

Jackson Chourio has shown bad plate discipline this year, ranking in the 18th percentile with a 3.93 K/BB rate.

Thomas Saggese is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.

Hitting from the same side that Quinn Priester throws from, Thomas Saggese will have a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Thomas Saggese has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.6%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Thomas Saggese will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Caleb Durbin in the 11th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Caleb Durbin is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Batting from the same side that Andre Pallante throws from, Caleb Durbin will have a tough matchup in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Caleb Durbin in the 13th percentile when assessing his home run ability.

Caleb Durbin’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off of late, going from 13.2% on the season to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

Quinn Priester will have the handedness advantage over Willson Contreras in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Willson Contreras in today’s game.

Willson Contreras has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 14% seasonal rate has fallen to 3.7% over the past two weeks.

Willson Contreras’s average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 90.5-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 84.9-mph over the past 14 days.

Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.

Extreme flyball batters like Christian Yelich usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Andre Pallante.

Christian Yelich’s launch angle this season (2°) is a considerable dropoff from his 5.1° mark last season.

Christian Yelich has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .351 figure is inflated compared to his .334 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

As it relates to his home runs, Christian Yelich has had positive variance on his side this year. His 28.2 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 17.7.

30% of the time that Jake Bauers has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been pinch hit for.

In today’s game, Jake Bauers is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 33.9% rate (82nd percentile).

Jake Bauers’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls lately (4.4° in the last two weeks) is quite a bit lower than his 16.6° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jake Bauers’s true offensive talent to be a .317, providing some evidence that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .009 deviation between that mark and his actual .326 wOBA.

Jake Bauers’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 17th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Batting from the same side that Quinn Priester throws from, Ivan Herrera will not have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Ivan Herrera has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Typically, hitters like Ivan Herrera who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Quinn Priester.

Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ivan Herrera in today’s game.

Ranking in the 25th percentile, Quinn Priester has posted an 18.4% strikeout rate this year.

Quinn Priester has been very fortunate when it comes to his ERA this year; his 3.25 figure is deflated compared to his 4.25 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

Lars Nootbaar will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

Lars Nootbaar’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined lately; his 93.4-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 83.2-mph in the last week.

In the last week, Lars Nootbaar’s 10% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.4%.

Nolan Gorman pulls many of his flyballs (34.5% — 86th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Nolan Gorman is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#2-best of all teams today).

Nolan Gorman will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Nolan Gorman’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls recently (18.2° in the last two weeks) is quite a bit lower than his 23.1° seasonal figure.

From last season to this one, Nolan Gorman’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 25% to 19.9%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 12th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Brice Turang has been lucky this year, notching a .346 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .314 — a .032 disparity.

As it relates to his home run talent, Brice Turang ranks in the 17th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Blake Perkins is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today’s game.

The switch-hitting Blake Perkins will be less advantaged while batting from his bad side (0) today against Andre Pallante,Blake Perkins has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph dropping to 83-mph in the last 7 days.

Andre Pallante will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Andre Pallante has put up a 1.97 K/BB rate this year, placing in the 12th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Andre Pallante in the 14th percentile as it relates to his strikeout ability.

Andre Pallante has recorded a 16.2% strikeout rate this year, placing in the 10th percentile.

Alec Burleson will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.318) may lead us to conclude that Alec Burleson has had positive variance on his side this year with his .341 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Fermin in the 16th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Jose Fermin is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Hitting from the same side that Quinn Priester throws from, Jose Fermin will have a disadvantage in today’s game.

When it comes to his home run ability, Jose Fermin ranks in the 15th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jose Fermin today.

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