Series Game 4 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Cardinals vs Brewers Series Game 4 Matchup Today

Sal Frelick is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

Among all major league parks, American Family Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.

Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.

Batting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Sal Frelick will have an advantage today.

Sal Frelick hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Joey Ortiz will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Joey Ortiz’s true offensive skill to be a .300, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .064 gap between that figure and his actual .236 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Jackson Chourio is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.

Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Jackson Chourio will hold that advantage today.

Caleb Durbin hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Caleb Durbin will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

By putting up a 1.31 K/BB rate this year, Caleb Durbin has shown impressive plate discipline, grading out in the 92nd percentile.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (12.8) may lead us to conclude that Caleb Durbin has been unlucky this year with his 6.7 actual HR/600.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Willson Contreras ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Willson Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today’s game.

Willson Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Willson Contreras has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 13.1% seasonal rate to 21.2% over the past two weeks.

Among all major league parks, American Family Field’s CF fences are the 8th-shallowest.

Extreme flyball batters like Nolan Arenado usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Quinn Priester.

When it comes to plate discipline, Nolan Arenado’s skill is quite strong, putting up a 1.51 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 87th percentile.

Rhys Hoskins is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.

Rhys Hoskins will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Rhys Hoskins has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 93.4-mph in the past 7 days.

As it relates to his home run talent, Rhys Hoskins ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

When estimating his overall offensive ability, William Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

William Contreras is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.

William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

Extreme groundball hitters like William Contreras tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Miles Mikolas.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Christian Yelich ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Christian Yelich is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.

Christian Yelich will have the handedness advantage against Miles Mikolas today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Yelich in the 96th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Pedro Pages (the Cardinals’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) projects as a good pitch framer.

American Family Field grades out as the #26 stadium in baseball for batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

In his last start, Miles Mikolas was on point and gave up 2 ER.

Miles Mikolas’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (55.6% vs. 49% last year) ought to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

Considering the 0.58 difference between Miles Mikolas’s 4.48 ERA and his 3.89 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in MLB this year and figures to see better results going forward.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks American Family Field as the best venue in MLB for strikeouts.

With a 0.85 discrepancy between Miles Mikolas’s 5.16 K/9 and his 6.00 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the game this year when it comes to strikeouts and figures to perform better in the future.

Miles Mikolas will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Ivan Herrera is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.

Ivan Herrera has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 100.7-mph average to last year’s 91.5-mph EV.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ivan Herrera’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 46.6% to 53%.

It may be wise to expect negative regression for the St. Louis Cardinals offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 10th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.

Quinn Priester will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats across the board.

In his previous game started, Quinn Priester was on point and conceded 1 ER.

Hitting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Brice Turang will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Brice Turang hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

Brice Turang will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 84th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Alec Burleson is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.

Batting from the opposite that Quinn Priester throws from, Alec Burleson will have the upper hand today.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Alec Burleson ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Batting from the opposite that Quinn Priester throws from, Brendan Donovan will have an edge in today’s game.

Brendan Donovan’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 45.8% to 53.8%.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Brendan Donovan ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

As it relates to his home runs, Brendan Donovan has experienced some negative variance this year. His 8.6 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 14.2.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Isaac Collins will hold that advantage today.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (11.5) suggests that Isaac Collins has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his 7.6 actual HR/600.

Isaac Collins has shown impressive plate discipline since the start of last season, grading out in the 85th percentile with a 1.83 K/BB rate.

Masyn Winn’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Masyn Winn is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.

Masyn Winn has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 90.5-mph average to last year’s 88-mph figure.

There has been a significant improvement in Masyn Winn’s launch angle from last season’s 13° to 16.7° this year.

Negative Match Player Stats with Cardinals vs Brewers Series Game 4

When assessing his home run skill, Sal Frelick ranks in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

American Family Field projects as the #26 park in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Sal Frelick has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.8-mph dropping to 74.4-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

Sal Frelick’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls of late (-1.3° over the past two weeks) is a significant dropoff from his 4.7° seasonal mark.

As it relates to his batting average, Sal Frelick has had positive variance on his side this year. His .292 mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .253.

The #5 ballpark in MLB for suppressing batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.

Sal Frelick has been lucky this year, notching a .331 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .295 — a .036 difference.

Utilizing Statcast data, Sal Frelick ranks in the 15th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 10.800.

When it comes to his home run talent, Joey Ortiz ranks in the 24th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Joey Ortiz is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Joey Ortiz has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 12% of the time.

Miles Mikolas will hold the platoon advantage against Joey Ortiz in today’s matchup.

In today’s matchup, Joey Ortiz is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.8% rate (96th percentile).

American Family Field projects as the #26 stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Miles Mikolas will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jackson Chourio in today’s game.

Jackson Chourio’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 89.7-mph average last year has dropped off to 87.3-mph.

Jackson Chourio’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, decreasing from 16% to 11.3%.

When it comes to plate discipline, Jackson Chourio’s talent is quite bad, putting up a 5.62 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 8th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Caleb Durbin in the 7th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Caleb Durbin is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Miles Mikolas will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Caleb Durbin today.

Caleb Durbin’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off lately, going from 26.2% on the season to 14.3% in the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Caleb Durbin in the 10th percentile when estimating his home run talent.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 10.4°, Caleb Durbin’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls has dropped significantly in recent games (2.2° in the past 14 days).

Compiling a lowly an 83.2-mph average exit velocity over the last week, Caleb Durbin has been in a slump in recent games.

Hitting from the same side that Quinn Priester throws from, Willson Contreras will have a tough matchup today.

Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Willson Contreras in today’s matchup.

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest among every team today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 6th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

Hitting from the same side that Quinn Priester throws from, Nolan Arenado will have a disadvantage in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Nolan Arenado today.

Nolan Arenado’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off lately; his 90.9-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 86.4-mph over the last 7 days.

Nolan Arenado’s launch angle in recent games (4.6° in the past 7 days) is quite a bit worse than his 18.8° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rhys Hoskins in the 5th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

This year, Rhys Hoskins has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 10% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter.

Batting from the same side that Miles Mikolas throws from, Rhys Hoskins meets a tough challenge in today’s game.

Typically, batters like Rhys Hoskins who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Miles Mikolas.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.316) suggests that Rhys Hoskins has had some very good luck this year with his .334 actual wOBA.

Hitting from the same side that Miles Mikolas throws from, William Contreras encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

This season, William Contreras’s Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 10% last year to just 5% this year.

William Contreras’s average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 89.5-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 86.5-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

William Contreras’s launch angle recently (-0.9° in the last two weeks’ worth of games) is considerably lower than his 4.2° seasonal mark.

Based on Statcast metrics, William Contreras grades out in the 12th percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 9.300.

Christian Yelich has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 7% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last 7 days.

Christian Yelich’s launch angle this year (1.7°) is quite a bit worse than his 5.1° figure last season.

Christian Yelich’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off lately, going from 12% on the season to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

Christian Yelich has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 28.3 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably higher than his 13.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miles Mikolas to throw 83 pitches in this game (4th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

It is likely that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Charlie Ramos) calling pitches in this game.

Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Miles Mikolas (35.2% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 3 FB hitters in Milwaukee’s projected batting order.

When estimating his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Miles Mikolas in the 5th percentile among all starters in baseball.

The Milwaukee Brewers (20.1 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-least strikeout-prone batting order of all teams on the slate today.

Quinn Priester will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ivan Herrera in today’s matchup.

Ivan Herrera has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 7th-deepest RF fences today.

Ivan Herrera will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

Ivan Herrera’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, falling from 16.3% to 10%.

Ivan Herrera’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off lately, going from 10% on the season to 6.1% in the past 14 days.

Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Quinn Priester (52.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today’s game with 2 GB hitters in St. Louis’s projected offense.

Quinn Priester has recorded a 1.56 K/BB rate this year, placing in the 6th percentile.

As it relates to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Quinn Priester in the 11th percentile among all starting pitchers in the game.

Checking in at the 8th percentile, Quinn Priester has recorded a 15.6% K% this year.

Pedro Pages is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today’s game.

Hitting from the same side that Quinn Priester throws from, Pedro Pages will be in a tough position in today’s game.

Pedro Pages has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences today.

Pedro Pages will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

Pedro Pages’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 88-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 83.8-mph over the last 14 days.

As it relates to his home run skill, Brice Turang ranks in the 9th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Brice Turang has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (76% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.

Over the last 14 days, Brice Turang’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.8% down to 0%.

Brice Turang’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased recently; his 92.1-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 88.5-mph over the last 14 days.

By putting up a 8.500 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Brice Turang has performed in the 10th percentile for power.

Alec Burleson will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

In the past week, Alec Burleson’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.3% down to 0%.

Alec Burleson’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (8.9°) is a significant dropoff from his 12.6° figure last year.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.291) provides evidence that Alec Burleson has been lucky this year with his .327 actual wOBA.

Using Statcast metrics, Alec Burleson ranks in the 25th percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 13.400.

Brendan Donovan has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (97% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th in the lineup today.

Brendan Donovan will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Over the last two weeks, Brendan Donovan’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal EV of 89.8 mph to 84 mph.

Brendan Donovan’s launch angle this year (9.6°) is quite a bit lower than his 13° mark last season.

In the last two weeks, Brendan Donovan’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (0.7°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 8.6°.

Isaac Collins is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game.

As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the dish, Isaac Collins will be less advantaged while batting from his bad side against Miles Mikolas in this game.

Isaac Collins pulls many of his flyballs (33.5% — 76th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

In the past two weeks, Isaac Collins’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.1% down to 0%.

In the past 7 days, Isaac Collins’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal figure of 89.9 mph to 82.3 mph.

Hitting from the same side that Quinn Priester throws from, Masyn Winn has a tough challenge today.

Masyn Winn will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

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