Blue Jays @ Royals Matchup Details

Positives for the Toronto Blue Jays Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Davis Schneider in the 94th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

Davis Schneider is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.

Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.

This season, Davis Schneider has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.1 mph compared to last year’s 93.1 mph mark.

Davis Schneider’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (29.5°) is quite a bit higher than his 23.4° mark last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Addison Barger in the 81st percentile when estimating his home run talent.

Addison Barger is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today.

Addison Barger will hold the platoon advantage against Michael Lorenzen in today’s game.

Addison Barger has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.7-mph average to last year’s 88.1-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jac Caglianone in the 81st percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

Jac Caglianone will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Max Scherzer in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Jac Caglianone will hold that advantage in today’s game.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jac Caglianone has been unlucky this year. His .230 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .338.

When it comes to his batting average, Jac Caglianone has suffered from bad luck this year. His .154 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .258.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Kauffman Stadium as the 10th-best park in baseball for lefty BABIP.

Batting from the opposite that Michael Lorenzen throws from, Daulton Varsho will have an advantage in today’s game.

Daulton Varsho has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 6.4% rate last season to 17.3% this year.

Daulton Varsho has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.9-mph average to last year’s 91.1-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daulton Varsho in the 94th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

Daulton Varsho’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (19.7°) is considerably better than his 14.8° figure last season.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, George Springer ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

George Springer is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.

The Barrel% of George Springer has significantly improved, with an increase from 9.3% last year to 16.8% this year.

George Springer has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.9-mph average to last year’s 93.2-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Kauffman Stadium as the 10th-best venue in MLB for right-handed BABIP.

When assessing his home run ability, Salvador Perez ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Salvador Perez is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.

Salvador Perez will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

Salvador Perez has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 29.1 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is deflated compared to his 33.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Max Scherzer in the 86th percentile among all starting pitchers in the majors.

Because groundball pitchers hold a big advantage over groundball bats, Max Scherzer and his 44.3% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position in this matchup being matched up with 4 opposing GB bats.

Among all starters, Max Scherzer’s fastball spin rate of 2390 rpm ranks in the 75th percentile this year.

Considering the 0.76 gap between Max Scherzer’s 8.51 K/9 and his 9.27 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year as it relates to strikeouts and figures to see positive regression in the future.

The Kansas City Royals have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season,The #1 venue in the majors for boosting walks, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.

Andres Gimenez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael Lorenzen in today’s matchup.

Last year, Andres Gimenez had an average launch angle of 9.2° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 12.7°.

In terms of his batting average, Andres Gimenez has been unlucky this year. His .208 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .248.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.297) provides evidence that Andres Gimenez has experienced some negative variance this year with his .266 actual wOBA.

Andres Gimenez’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the opposite that Max Scherzer throws from, Adam Frazier will have the upper hand today.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Adam Frazier will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Adam Frazier’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (16.3°) is considerably higher than his 11.9° mark last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mike Yastrzemski in the 79th percentile when estimating his home run talent.

Mike Yastrzemski is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

Mike Yastrzemski will hold the platoon advantage over Max Scherzer in today’s game.

Mike Yastrzemski will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which should boost all of his stats.

Mike Yastrzemski’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 14.6% to 18.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in MLB when estimating his batting average skill.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (27.6) suggests that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has suffered from bad luck this year with his 21.6 actual HR/600.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 13.1% Barrel% (an advanced metric to evaluate power) is in the 84th percentile this year.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .378 figure is considerably lower than his .406 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. projects as the 5th-best batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Alejandro Kirk has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.4-mph average to last year’s 89.3-mph mark.

Alejandro Kirk has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 15.1 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably lower than his 20.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

In notching a .285 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Alejandro Kirk finds himself in the 91st percentile.

Using Statcast data, Alejandro Kirk grades out in the 76th percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .340.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

Ernie Clement’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ranking in the 87th percentile, Ernie Clement sports a .281 batting average this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bobby Witt Jr. ranks as the 9th-best batter in the majors.

Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Bobby Witt Jr. will hold that advantage today.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (25.9) suggests that Bobby Witt Jr. has been unlucky this year with his 20.6 actual HR/600.

In the last 14 days, Bobby Witt Jr. has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .361.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathan Lukes in the 89th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Nathan Lukes is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

Hitting from the opposite that Michael Lorenzen throws from, Nathan Lukes will have an edge in today’s game.

Nathan Lukes is in the 86th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (18.5% rate this year).

In terms of plate discipline, Nathan Lukes’s skill is quite good, sporting a 1.61 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 84th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Maikel Garcia in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Maikel Garcia is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

Maikel Garcia will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Maikel Garcia’s launch angle this season (9.7°) is quite a bit higher than his 6.2° figure last year.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Maikel Garcia ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Max Scherzer throws from, Vinnie Pasquantino will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Vinnie Pasquantino will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Utilizing Statcast metrics, Vinnie Pasquantino grades out in the 91st percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 29.600.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Vinnie Pasquantino ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Michael Massey will hold the platoon advantage against Max Scherzer today.

Michael Massey will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Michael Massey’s launch angle this year (22.5°) is quite a bit better than his 16.7° angle last season.

Despite posting a .229 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Michael Massey has been unlucky given the .064 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .293.

Negatives with the Kansas City Royals Game Today

The #2 stadium in the league for suppressing home runs to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.

Hitting from the same side that Michael Lorenzen throws from, Davis Schneider will have a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

Davis Schneider pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Davis Schneider today.

As it relates to his batting average, Davis Schneider has had positive variance on his side this year. His .246 rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .180.

Kauffman Stadium grades out as the #29 field in the majors for left-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Addison Barger pulls many of his flyballs (34% — 82nd percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s deepest RF fences today.

Addison Barger will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Addison Barger’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (7.5°) is significantly worse than his 11° angle last season.

Addison Barger has shown poor plate discipline this year, placing in the 23rd percentile with a 3.39 K/BB rate.

Jac Caglianone is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

Jac Caglianone hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 4th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Jac Caglianone’s 5.5° launch angle (a reliable stat to assess a batter’s ability to lift the ball for power) is among the lowest in the majors: 10th percentile.

Grading out in the 18th percentile, Jac Caglianone sports a .227 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

Jac Caglianone’s BABIP talent is projected in the 20th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daulton Varsho in the 4th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Daulton Varsho is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

Daulton Varsho pulls many of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Daulton Varsho will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Daulton Varsho’s true offensive skill to be a .318, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .036 deviation between that figure and his actual .354 wOBA.

In terms of his home runs, Daulton Varsho has had some very good luck this year. His 46.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 37.8.

Batting from the same side that Michael Lorenzen throws from, George Springer encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

George Springer hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 4th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for George Springer in today’s game.

George Springer has been lucky this year, putting up a .402 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .360 — a .042 gap.

Hitting from the same side that Max Scherzer throws from, Salvador Perez has a tough challenge today.

In today’s matchup, Salvador Perez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.3% rate (95th percentile).

Typically, hitters like Salvador Perez who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Max Scherzer.

Placing in the 6th percentile, Salvador Perez sports a .249 BABIP this year.

With a 4.72 K/BB rate this year, Salvador Perez has displayed poor plate discipline, ranking in the 10th percentile.

The Kansas City Royals (20.1 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 4th-least strikeout-heavy batting order of the day.

With 6 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Max Scherzer faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

Max Scherzer will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

In his previous game started, Max Scherzer didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking hitters out and was only able to tally 1 Ks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Max Scherzer in the 78th percentile as it relates to his overall pitching talent.

Compared to their .334 overall projected rate, the .320 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Kansas City Royals projected offense in this game suggests this version of the lineup considerably a bit watered down.

Kauffman Stadium has the deepest RF fences in the league.

Max Scherzer is an extreme flyball pitcher (44.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #29 HR venue in MLB in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 11th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Andres Gimenez is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Andres Gimenez today.

This year, Andres Gimenez’s 3.3% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 10th percentile among his peers.

This year, the hardest ball Andres Gimenez has made contact with reached a maximum exit velocity of 106.6 mph (a reliable standard to study power), checking in at the 4th percentile.

As it relates to his home run ability, Adam Frazier ranks in the 3rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Adam Frazier is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.

Adam Frazier has been lucky this year, notching a .300 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .275 — a .025 difference.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Adam Frazier ranks in the 13th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Adam Frazier’s 1.9% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) grades out in the 4th percentile this year.

Mike Yastrzemski pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.7% — 86th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Typically, hitters like Mike Yastrzemski who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Max Scherzer.

Placing in the 22nd percentile, the hardest ball Mike Yastrzemski has hit this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 109.3 mph — a reliable indication of underlying power skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mike Yastrzemski in the 9th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Mike Yastrzemski has been very bad at hitting the ball to all fields (a core skill for batting average), ranking in the 20th percentile in THE BAT X’s Spray Score this year.

Michael Lorenzen will have the handedness advantage against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in today’s game.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 4th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in today’s matchup.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and his 5.8° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 8th percentile, among the lowest in baseball this year.

Alejandro Kirk is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

Michael Lorenzen will hold the platoon advantage over Alejandro Kirk in today’s game.

Alejandro Kirk has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s deepest RF fences today.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Alejandro Kirk in today’s matchup.

Alejandro Kirk’s footspeed has dropped off this year. His 24.71 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.24 ft/sec now.

When estimating his home run skill, Ernie Clement ranks in the 10th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ernie Clement is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today.

Michael Lorenzen will hold the platoon advantage against Ernie Clement in today’s game.

Ernie Clement pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.8% — 81st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Ernie Clement will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Ernie Clement’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, decreasing from 18.8% to 15%.

Hitting from the same side that Max Scherzer throws from, Bobby Witt Jr. encounters a tough challenge today.

Bobby Witt Jr. has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Extreme groundball bats like Bobby Witt Jr. are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Scherzer.

Nathan Lukes has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and will be challenged by the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Nathan Lukes in today’s matchup.

Nathan Lukes’s 4.4% Barrel% (an advanced metric to measure power) ranks in the 16th percentile this year.

Placing in the 5th percentile, the hardest ball Nathan Lukes has hit this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 107.2 mph — an advanced indication of underlying power ability.

Grading out in the 21st percentile, Nathan Lukes has notched a .272 BABIP this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathan Lukes in the 11th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (10.8) may lead us to conclude that Nathan Lukes has experienced some positive variance this year with his 16.2 actual HR/600.

Hitting from the same side that Max Scherzer throws from, Maikel Garcia will not have the upper hand in today’s game.

In today’s matchup, Maikel Garcia is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35% rate (84th percentile).

Despite posting a .351 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Maikel Garcia has had positive variance on his side given the .027 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .324.

This year, Maikel Garcia’s 5.8% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 24th percentile among his peers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vinnie Pasquantino in the 9th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

In today’s matchup, Vinnie Pasquantino is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36% rate (92nd percentile).

Vinnie Pasquantino grades out in the 18th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (40.7% rate this year).

Vinnie Pasquantino is quite slow, ranking in the 10th percentile in Sprint Speed at 25.43 ft/sec this year.

Vinnie Pasquantino has recorded a .269 BABIP this year, placing in the 19th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Massey in the 5th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Michael Massey is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this game.

Michael Massey pulls many of his flyballs (36.2% — 92nd percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Extreme flyball batters like Michael Massey are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Max Scherzer.

Michael Massey’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 91.7-mph figure last year has fallen off to 88.8-mph.

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