Blue Jays vs Red Sox match player stats | 2025 Monday, April 7th

|
Blue Jays vs Red Sox match player stats | 2025 Monday, April 7th

TOR @ BOS

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Blue Jays vs Red SoxBlue Jays vs Red SoxBlue Jays vs Red SoxBlue Jays vs Red SoxBlue Jays vs Red SoxBlue Jays vs Red Sox

World Matchup Details

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox

Todays Game is on Monday, April 7th
07/04/25 18:45:00 PM EST First Pitch

Positive Match Player Stats for Blue Jays vs Red Sox Matchup Today

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 10th-best venue in the majors for LHB home runs.

Easton Lucas will have the handedness advantage over Wilyer Abreu in today’s matchup.

Wilyer Abreu pulls many of his flyballs (34% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Wilyer Abreu will hold that advantage today.

The #8 stadium in the majors for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in the league for run-scoring.

The shallowest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Fenway Park.

Ceddanne Rafaela will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.8) may lead us to conclude that Ceddanne Rafaela has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his 14.9 actual HR/600.

Ceddanne Rafaela has done a strong job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-hit balls. His 17° figure is among the highest in the majors since the start of last season (89th percentile).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 8th-best field in the game for right-handed batting average.

Fenway Park grades out as the #10 venue in baseball for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best ballpark in MLB for batting average.

The 9.2% Barrel% of the Boston Red Sox makes them the #4 squad in MLB since the start of last season by this metric.

Boston Red Sox hitters jointly grade out 4th- in baseball for power since the start of last season when judging by their 92.9-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Wong, Trevor Story, Triston Casas).

Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher stats across the board, and Richard Fitts will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Richard Fitts’s 2439.7-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 89th percentile among all starting pitchers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Richard Fitts in the 19th percentile when estimating his overall pitching skills.

It may be smart to expect better numbers for the Toronto Blue Jays offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 8th-unluckiest offense in baseball since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Wagner in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Hitting from the opposite that Richard Fitts throws from, Will Wagner will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Will Wagner hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Hitters such as Will Wagner with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Richard Fitts who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Will Wagner has exhibited some good exit velocity metrics in recent games, averaging 96.7-mph on his flyballs in the past two weeks.

Fenway Park has the 2nd-shallowest right field dimensions in Major League Baseball.

Hitting from the opposite that Richard Fitts throws from, Alan Roden will have an edge today.

Alan Roden has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 103.8-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal average of 98.8-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alan Roden in the 85th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell as the 14th-best hitter in the league when assessing his BABIP ability.

Kristian Campbell will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Kristian Campbell has been hot of late, posting a .474 wOBA in the past 14 days.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Kristian Campbell ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Anthony Santander is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.

Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.7% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Anthony Santander’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 38.2% to 60%.

Grading out in the 98th percentile for power, Anthony Santander has averaged 37.8 dingers per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.

Checking in at the 84th percentile, Anthony Santander sits with a .344 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Santander in the 95th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Anthony Santander ranks in the 100th percentile with a 22.6° launch angle, which is among the steepest angles in the league.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Easton Lucas will have the handedness advantage over Rafael Devers in today’s matchup.

Rafael Devers has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s shallowest LF fences today.

Trevor Story’s BABIP skill is projected in the 75th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Trevor Story is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Trevor Story will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Trevor Story has been hot in recent games, notching a a 20% Barrel% (an advanced metric to assess power) in the past week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 81st percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

George Springer is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

George Springer has been hot lately, compiling a a 22.2% Barrel% (a reliable standard to study power) over the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Alex Bregman is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.

Alex Bregman hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Alex Bregman will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 84th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Andres Gimenez is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.

Andres Gimenez will hold the platoon advantage over Richard Fitts in today’s matchup.

Extreme groundball batters like Andres Gimenez usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Richard Fitts.

Rob Refsnyder’s BABIP talent is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Rob Refsnyder is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

Rob Refsnyder will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best batter in baseball when estimating his batting average ability.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .392 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .418.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been unlucky in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 24.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is deflated compared to his 31.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ranks as the 6th-best batter in the game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bo Bichette in the 79th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Bo Bichette is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.

Bo Bichette has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

There has been a significant improvement in Bo Bichette’s launch angle from last season’s 7° to 10.3° this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bo Bichette as the 8th-best batter in MLB when assessing his BABIP talent.

Compared to last year, Bo Bichette has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 45% to 66.7% this season.

Alejandro Kirk’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Alejandro Kirk has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

Putting up a 93.2-mph average exit velocity over the past week, Alejandro Kirk has been in great form lately.

As it relates to his home runs, Alejandro Kirk has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His 7.2 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 15.6.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 75th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Alejandro Kirk has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .292 mark is quite a bit lower than his .310 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Throwing 94.2 adjusted pitches per start since the start of last season on average, Jose Berrios checks in at the 84th percentile.

Connor Wong will possess the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

As it relates to his home runs, Connor Wong has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His 15.2 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.3.

Connor Wong has posted a .331 BABIP since the start of last season, grading out in the 90th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 86th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

Ernie Clement pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.5% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Ernie Clement has been lifting the ball well of late, posting a 30.5° launch angle over the last 14 days.

When it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34° (the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs), Ernie Clement and his 18.9% rank in the 90th percentile since the start of last season.

When assessing his home run skill, Triston Casas ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Triston Casas is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today’s game.

Hitting from the same side that Easton Lucas throws from, Triston Casas will have a tough matchup in today’s game.

Triston Casas hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 79th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran as the 19th-best hitter in the game when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Jarren Duran is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.

Easton Lucas will have the handedness advantage against Jarren Duran in today’s matchup.

Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 90th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Batting from the opposite that Richard Fitts throws from, Nathan Lukes will have an edge in today’s game.

Nathan Lukes has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Batters such as Nathan Lukes with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Richard Fitts who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathan Lukes in the 84th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Romy Gonzalez has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Extreme flyball batters like Romy Gonzalez generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jose Berrios.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Romy Gonzalez will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Romy Gonzalez has notched a .333 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, placing in the 82nd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Easton Lucas will have the handedness advantage against David Hamilton today.

David Hamilton has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league’s shallowest LF fences today.

David Hamilton will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.314) provides evidence that David Hamilton has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .297 actual wOBA.

Negative Match Player Stats with Blue Jays vs Red Sox

Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today.

Wilyer Abreu has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 16% of the time when starting against a southpaw since the start of last season.

Among all major league stadiums, the 2nd-tallest fences are at Fenway Park.

Fenway Park’s altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.

Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report expects the lowest temperature on the slate today at 37°.

The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for pitchers.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Ceddanne Rafaela ranks in the 23rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this matchup.

The Boston Red Sox have been the 4th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Alejandro Kirk (the Blue Jays’s expected catcher today) is considered to be a good pitch framer.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 8th-worst field in the majors for strikeouts.

When assessing his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Richard Fitts in the 12th percentile among all starting pitchers in the game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Richard Fitts to throw 79 pitches today (least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

The Toronto Blue Jays (17.2 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-heavy team of batters of all teams today.

Projected catcher Connor Wong projects as a weak pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The Boston Red Sox outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best among every team playing today.

Will Wagner is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.

Will Wagner has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 22% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Wagner in the 17th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

When estimating his home run skill, Alan Roden ranks in the 11th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Alan Roden is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game.

Alan Roden has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 19% of the time when starting against a northpaw this year.

Kristian Campbell is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Easton Lucas throws from, Kristian Campbell will have the upper hand in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Santander in the 2nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

The switch-hitting Anthony Santander will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side (0) today against Richard Fitts,The Toronto Blue Jays infield defense profiles as the strongest among every team on the slate today.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Rafael Devers has not been doing well in optimizing the launch angle on his hardest hit balls to generate power, managing a mere a -9.6° angle.

Trevor Story will have the handedness advantage against Easton Lucas in today’s matchup.

Extreme flyball hitters like Trevor Story are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Jose Berrios.

Richard Fitts will hold the platoon advantage over George Springer today.

George Springer will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Hitting from the opposite that Easton Lucas throws from, Alex Bregman will have an advantage today.

Extreme groundball hitters like Alex Bregman tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Jose Berrios.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Andres Gimenez in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 22nd percentile when assessing his home run talent.

When starting against a left-handed pitcher since the start of last season, Rob Refsnyder has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 18% of the time.

Rob Refsnyder will hold the platoon advantage over Easton Lucas today.

Richard Fitts will have the handedness advantage against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. today.

Richard Fitts will hold the platoon advantage against Bo Bichette today.

Alejandro Kirk is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

Hitting from the same side that Richard Fitts throws from, Alejandro Kirk meets a tough challenge today.

Playing on the road generally diminishes pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jose Berrios in today’s game.

Connor Wong is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.

Connor Wong will have the handedness advantage over Easton Lucas in today’s game.

Ernie Clement is penciled in 8th in the lineup today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 18th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

Batting from the same side that Richard Fitts throws from, Ernie Clement faces a tough challenge today.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Triston Casas has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His .325 rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .284.

Triston Casas’s speed has dropped off this year. His 24.07 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 23.55 ft/sec now.

When estimating his home run ability, Nathan Lukes ranks in the 8th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Nathan Lukes is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game.

Romy Gonzalez is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today.

When starting against a left-handed starter since the start of last season, Romy Gonzalez has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 41% of the time.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, David Hamilton ranks in the 22nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

David Hamilton is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects David Hamilton in the 20th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Latest Boston Red Sox Match Player Stats

Latest Toronto Blue Jays Match Player Stats