Astros vs Pirates match player stats | 2025 Series Game 3 Thursday, June 5th

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Astros vs Pirates match player stats | 2025 Series Game 3 Thursday, June 5th

HOU @ PIT

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Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates
Series Game 3
Todays Game is on Thursday, June 5th
05/06/25 18:40:00 PM EST First Pitch

Positive Match Player Stats for Astros vs Pirates Series Game 3 Matchup Today

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects for the 5th-best hitting conditions of all games on the slate.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.3-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.

Batting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Jacob Melton will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

Extreme flyball hitters like Jacob Melton usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Mitch Keller.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects PNC Park as the 5th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for lefty base hits.

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest elevation in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.

When assessing his BABIP skill, Cam Smith is projected as the 16th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Cam Smith has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 10.1% seasonal rate to 16.1% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Cam Smith has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.8-mph to 98.8-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks PNC Park as the 5th-best stadium in baseball for right-handed base hits.

Cam Smith has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .315 figure is a good deal lower than his .333 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When it comes to his home run talent, Christian Walker ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Christian Walker is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today’s game.

Extreme flyball bats like Victor Caratini tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Mitch Keller.

In notching a .275 batting average since the start of last season, Victor Caratini is ranked in the 85th percentile.

Isaac Paredes is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

Isaac Paredes has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 89.2-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 86.8-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isaac Paredes in the 79th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Jose Altuve’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jose Altuve is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jose Altuve ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

It may be smart to expect better numbers for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

James Hoye profiles as a Hitters Umpire and is expected to be in charge of the strike zone in this game.

Projected catcher Yainer Diaz projects as a weak pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects PNC Park as the 7th-best park in the league for BABIP.

Throwing 93.1 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Framber Valdez places in the 82nd percentile.

When it comes to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Framber Valdez in the 76th percentile among all starting pitchers in baseball.

The Houston Astros have been the 9th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward,Henry Davis, the Pirates’s expected catcher today, projects as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Recording 92.7 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Mitch Keller checks in at the 81st percentile.

Mitch Keller’s slider utilization has risen by 8.8% from last year to this one (25.1% to 33.9%) .

Mitch Keller’s 2403-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 79th percentile among all SPs.

Ke’Bryan Hayes is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.

Ke’Bryan Hayes will hold the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today’s matchup.

Ke’Bryan Hayes will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Bryan Reynolds will hold that advantage in today’s game.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Bryan Reynolds ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Tommy Pham will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Tommy Pham will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Tommy Pham’s true offensive talent to be a .304, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .070 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .234 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa will hold the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today’s matchup.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 102.1-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal mark of 88.7-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alexander Canario in the 81st percentile when assessing his home run ability.

Alexander Canario is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Alexander Canario will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Jeremy Pena is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.

Extreme groundball batters like Jeremy Pena tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Mitch Keller.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jeremy Pena ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 79th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Over the past 7 days, Jake Meyers’s 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.4%.

Jake Meyers’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 44.4% to 51.4%.

Jake Meyers has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 6.2% seasonal rate to 25% over the last week.

Henry Davis is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Henry Davis will have the upper hand today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Yainer Diaz is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.

Yainer Diaz has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 91.1-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Negative Match Player Stats with Astros vs Pirates Series Game 3

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Melton in the 10th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Jacob Melton is penciled in 9th on the lineup card today.

PNC Park projects as the #28 field in the league for lefty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

PNC Park has the 6th-highest fences among all major league parks.

PNC Park has the 7th-largest outfield among all major league stadiums — generally bad for home runs.

Out of every team today, the best infield defense is that of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jacob Melton in today’s game.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Jacob Melton ranks in the 11th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Cam Smith is projected to hit 8th in the lineup today.

The #2 ballpark in the majors for suppressing home runs to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.

Batting from the same side that Mitch Keller throws from, Cam Smith will be at a disadvantage today.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Cam Smith today.

Mitch Keller will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Christian Walker in today’s matchup.

Christian Walker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.1% — 89th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.

Christian Walker’s BABIP talent is projected in the 12th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Christian Walker in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Victor Caratini in the 22nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Victor Caratini is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Victor Caratini will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Victor Caratini is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Pittsburgh (#1-best on the slate today).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isaac Paredes in the 3rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Mitch Keller will hold the platoon advantage over Isaac Paredes in today’s matchup.

Today, Isaac Paredes is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 46.4% rate (100th percentile).

Extreme groundball batters like Isaac Paredes tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Mitch Keller.

Batting from the same side that Mitch Keller throws from, Jose Altuve will not have the upper hand in today’s game.

Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jose Altuve today.

As it relates to his batting average, Jose Altuve has been lucky this year. His .263 BA has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .231.

Framber Valdez projects as the 11th-best pitcher in the game right now, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The 4th-worst projected batting order of the day in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Framber Valdez has a large reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 8 opposite-handed bats today.

Because groundball pitchers hold a sizeable edge over groundball bats, Framber Valdez and his 58.3% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot in today’s matchup squaring off against 3 opposing GB bats.

PNC Park ranks as the #27 field in the majors for strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Mitch Keller will hold the platoon advantage against 7 opposing batters today.

Mitch Keller is an extreme flyball pitcher (31.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #26 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.

Home field advantage typically improves pitcher stats in all categories, and Mitch Keller will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Extreme flyball hitters like Ke’Bryan Hayes usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez.

In the past week’s worth of games, Ke’Bryan Hayes’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.2% down to 0%.

Ke’Bryan Hayes’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined of late, falling from 10.4% on the season to 0% in the past 7 days.

Grading out in the 5th percentile, Ke’Bryan Hayes sports a .247 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the dish, Bryan Reynolds will be at a disadvantage batting from his weak side against Framber Valdez in this game.

Bryan Reynolds’s launch angle this season (5.5°) is quite a bit worse than his 9.1° angle last season.

Tommy Pham is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Typically, batters like Tommy Pham who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Framber Valdez.

Tommy Pham has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 7.2% rate last year has fallen off to 2.1% this year.

Tommy Pham’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (2.5°) is quite a bit worse than his 9.6° figure last year.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Extreme flyball hitters like Isiah Kiner-Falefa tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 5.3°, Isiah Kiner-Falefa has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (1°) in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (2.9°) is quite a bit worse than his 8.4° angle last year.

When assessing his home run skill, Isiah Kiner-Falefa ranks in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Andrew McCutchen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.8% — 79th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.

In the past 14 days, Andrew McCutchen’s 3.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12.3%.

Over the past two weeks, Alexander Canario’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 16.9% down to 9.5%.

Alexander Canario has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.6-mph dropping to 77.7-mph in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alexander Canario in the 20th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Alexander Canario’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off of late, falling from 18.2% on the season to 0% in the last 7 days.

Hitting from the same side that Mitch Keller throws from, Jeremy Pena encounters a tough challenge today.

Jeremy Pena will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Jeremy Pena’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, falling from 12.3% to 8.5%.

Jake Meyers is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.

Batting from the same side that Mitch Keller throws from, Jake Meyers will not have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Jake Meyers will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

In today’s game, Henry Davis is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.2% rate (89th percentile).

In the last week’s worth of games, Henry Davis’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 8.3%.

Checking in at the 17th percentile, Henry Davis has posted a .230 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season.

Checking in at the 13th percentile, Henry Davis sports a .160 batting average since the start of last season.

Mitch Keller will hold the platoon advantage over Yainer Diaz today.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Yainer Diaz in today’s matchup.

As it relates to plate discipline, Yainer Diaz’s skill is quite poor, sporting a 4.74 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 12th percentile.

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