Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Astros vs Mariners Matchup Today

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s estimation, Brandon Walter’s overall pitching skill grades out in the 84th percentile among all starters in Major League Baseball right now.

It may be sensible to expect worse numbers for the Seattle Mariners offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the luckiest offense in the league this year.

T-Mobile Park projects as the #30 ballpark in the game for batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

T-Mobile Park’s elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to less offense.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 3rd-most suitable for pitching on the schedule today.

The #2 venue in the game for boosting strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Brandon Walter must realize this, because he has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 69.6% of the time, ranking in the 95th percentile.

Ranking in the 77th percentile, Brandon Walter put up an 11.9% Swinging Strike percentage this year.

Benjamin Williamson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Walter in today’s game.

Benjamin Williamson has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.4%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest RF fences today.

Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Benjamin Williamson will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Benjamin Williamson’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 84.6-mph over the course of the season to 86.6-mph lately.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (7.7) may lead us to conclude that Benjamin Williamson has had some very poor luck this year with his 2.3 actual HR/600.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Benjamin Williamson in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cam Smith as the 4th-best batter in the game when estimating his BABIP skill.

Cam Smith has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (73% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.

Cam Smith has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest among all the teams today.

Based on Statcast metrics, Cam Smith is in the 81st percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .275.

When it comes to his home run skill, Christian Walker ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Christian Walker is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game.

Christian Walker pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.7% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

Over the last 14 days, Christian Walker’s 23.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.5%.

Despite posting a .289 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Christian Walker has had some very poor luck given the .037 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .326.

Victor Caratini is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.

Dingers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the majors.

Victor Caratini’s launch angle this year (15.6°) is quite a bit higher than his 9.1° figure last season.

Utilizing Statcast data, Victor Caratini is in the 76th percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 24.300.

Victor Caratini has paced 25.2 dingers per 600 plate appearances this year, grading out in the 76th percentile for power.

Mitch Garver, the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s game, projects as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Luis Castillo’s 94.5-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1-mph drop off from last season’s 95.5-mph figure.

Among all SPs, Luis Castillo’s fastball spin rate of 2206 rpm ranks in the 14th percentile this year.

Luis Castillo has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 5.1 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.

The Houston Astros have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Cam Smith, Taylor Trammell, Brice Matthews).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isaac Paredes in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Isaac Paredes is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (47.2% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

Isaac Paredes has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 87.2-mph average to last year’s 85-mph mark.

Isaac Paredes’s launch angle of late (32.3° in the last two weeks) is a significant increase over his 22.9° seasonal angle.

Jose Altuve’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jose Altuve is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Jose Altuve has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 6.7% seasonal rate to 15.6% in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Over the last 14 days, Jose Altuve has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 19.2° compared to his seasonal mark of 15.6°.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, J.P. Crawford ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

J.P. Crawford is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

J.P. Crawford has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

J.P. Crawford will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which should bolster all of his stats.

J.P. Crawford’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 16.6% to 19.9%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.P. Crawford in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

J.P. Crawford’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved in recent games, going from 46.1% on the season to 72.7% in the past week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Moore in the 85th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

Dylan Moore will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Walter in today’s matchup.

Dylan Moore pulls many of his flyballs (38.8% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Extreme flyball batters like Dylan Moore generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brandon Walter.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Dylan Moore will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Dylan Moore’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 18% to 23.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Donovan Solano in the 88th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Batting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, Donovan Solano will have an advantage today.

Donovan Solano will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

In notching a .335 BABIP since the start of last season, Donovan Solano is ranked in the 93rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Mauricio Dubon has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 4th-shallowest RF fences today.

Mauricio Dubon’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 12.1% to 21.8%.

In the last 14 days, Mauricio Dubon’s 29.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 21.8%.

Sporting a 1.73 K/BB rate this year, Mauricio Dubon has displayed strong plate discipline, checking in at the 79th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Randy Arozarena is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Randy Arozarena will hold the platoon advantage against Brandon Walter in today’s matchup.

Randy Arozarena pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Randy Arozarena will hold that advantage in today’s game.

When assessing his home run ability, Jorge Polanco ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jorge Polanco pulls many of his flyballs (39.7% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Extreme flyball batters like Jorge Polanco tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brandon Walter.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Jorge Polanco will hold that advantage today.

Jorge Polanco has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 90.7-mph average to last season’s 88.3-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Polanco in the 79th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

When it comes to his home run ability, Mitch Garver ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Mitch Garver is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, Mitch Garver will have the upper hand today.

Mitch Garver pulls many of his flyballs (40.4% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Batters such as Mitch Garver with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brandon Walter who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Mitch Garver will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Taylor Trammell will have the handedness advantage over Luis Castillo in today’s game… and the cherry on top, Castillo has a large platoon split.

Taylor Trammell is likely to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.

Posting a 93.9-mph average exit velocity over the past two weeks, Taylor Trammell has been in great form of late.

As it relates to his home run ability, Taylor Trammell ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cal Raleigh in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Cal Raleigh is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Cal Raleigh will get to bat from his strong side against Brandon Walter in today’s game.

Cal Raleigh pulls many of his flyballs (43% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Extreme flyball batters like Cal Raleigh tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brandon Walter.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Cal Raleigh as baseball’s 3rd-best home run hitter.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 11th-best hitter in the league as it relates to his batting average talent.

Julio Rodriguez is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

Julio Rodriguez will have the handedness advantage against Brandon Walter in today’s matchup.

Julio Rodriguez will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Julio Rodriguez ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Yainer Diaz has made notable gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 8.6% seasonal rate to 20.8% over the last two weeks.

Yainer Diaz has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 96.9-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal figure of 93.6-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 86th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Yainer Diaz’s launch angle lately (16.9° in the past two weeks’ worth of games) is quite a bit better than his 12° seasonal figure.

Negative Match Player Stats with Astros vs Mariners

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Brandon Walter is projected to throw 84 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 5th-least on the slate today.

Projected catcher Yainer Diaz grades out as a weak pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

In Major League Baseball, T-Mobile Park’s RF dimensions are the shallowest.

With 8 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Brandon Walter will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.

Given that flyball batters have a big edge over groundball pitchers, Brandon Walter and his 48% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome spot in today’s game facing 4 opposing GB hitters.

Playing on the road generally weakens pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Brandon Walter in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his home run ability, Benjamin Williamson ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Benjamin Williamson is penciled in 9th in the lineup in today’s game.

The #1 park in baseball for suppressing offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.

The #1 stadium in the game for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.

Extreme groundball hitters like Benjamin Williamson tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Brandon Walter.

Luis Castillo will have the handedness advantage against Cam Smith in today’s matchup… and it’s a particular mismatch considering Castillo’s large platoon split.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Cam Smith in today’s matchup.

In the last week, Cam Smith’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.1% down to 0%.

Because of Luis Castillo’s large platoon split, Christian Walker will be at a massive disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish today.

Christian Walker will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 14th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

In the past week’s worth of games, Christian Walker’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.1% down to 0%.

Victor Caratini’s BABIP skill is projected in the 15th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Victor Caratini will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Victor Caratini’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 89.3-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 86-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 15.6°, Victor Caratini has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (1.3°) over the last 14 days.

T-Mobile Park ranks as the #30 field in the league for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The Houston Astros have been the 8th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future,Luis Castillo will hold the platoon advantage over 7 opposing batters in this game… and will be extra-advantaged due to his large platoon split.

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Luis Castillo has utilized his fastball a lot this year, though: 67.4% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.

Luis Castillo will have the handedness advantage over Isaac Paredes today… and it’s an over-sized mismatch considering Castillo’s large platoon split.

Extreme groundball batters like Isaac Paredes tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Luis Castillo.

Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Isaac Paredes in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isaac Paredes in the 3rd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Luis Castillo will have the handedness advantage against Jose Altuve in today’s game… and it’s an over-sized mismatch considering Castillo’s large platoon split.

Jose Altuve will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Jose Altuve’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 84.9-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 78.5-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

Brandon Walter will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against J.P. Crawford in today’s matchup.

J.P. Crawford has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.8% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last two weeks.

J.P. Crawford’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined in recent games; his 89.6-mph seasonal average has decreased to 74.4-mph over the past week.

The Houston Astros infield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of every team in action today.

Dylan Moore is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.

This year, Dylan Moore has been pinch hit for in 45% of his appearances when starting against left-handed starter.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Moore in the 19th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

Dylan Moore’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 88.4-mph EV last year has decreased to 84.7-mph.

Donovan Solano is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.

Donovan Solano has been pulled from the game early 52% of the time when starting against a lefty hurler this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Donovan Solano in the 17th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

Mauricio Dubon is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Given Luis Castillo’s large platoon split, Mauricio Dubon will be at a huge disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in today’s matchup.

When estimating his home run ability, Mauricio Dubon ranks in the 9th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Randy Arozarena has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .356 rate is a good deal higher than his .338 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jorge Polanco has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (91% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.

In terms of his home runs, Jorge Polanco has had some very good luck this year. His 30.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 24.4.

Mitch Garver has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .294 mark is considerably higher than his .277 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Mitch Garver has posted a .362 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year, ranking in the 25th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mitch Garver in the 10th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Trammell in the 7th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Taylor Trammell is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this game.

Since the start of last season, Taylor Trammell has been pinch hit for in 21% of his appearances when starting against righty hurler.

Taylor Trammell will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Despite posting a .414 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Cal Raleigh has experienced some positive variance given the .057 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .357.

In the past two weeks, Julio Rodriguez’s 7.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14%.

Yainer Diaz is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.

Luis Castillo will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yainer Diaz in today’s game… and it’s an even bigger mismatch considering Castillo’s large platoon split.

Yainer Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

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