Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Astros vs D-Backs Series Game 3 Matchup Today

Recording 91.6 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Brandon Pfaadt places him the 77th percentile.

The Houston Astros have 5 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brice Matthews, Chas McCormick, Taylor Trammell, Cam Smith, Zack Short).

It is likely that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Brian Walsh) in charge of the strike zone in this game.

The Chase Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -5° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching.

With 8 batters who share his handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Brandon Pfaadt should benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 3rd-best ballpark in the game for batting average.

The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams playing today.

Collectively, Houston Astros bats have shined as far as hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to result the most in base hits (between -4° and 26°), placing 7th-best in the league.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Yainer Diaz (the Astros’s expected catcher today) is considered to be a weak pitch framer.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have 7 bats in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Brandon Walter in this matchup.

Brandon Walter will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Among all starting pitchers, Brandon Walter’s fastball velocity of 87.7 mph is in the 3rd percentile this year.

Brandon Walter has put up a 25.2% strikeout rate this year, grading out in the 79th percentile.

The #2 venue in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

Brice Matthews has been hot in recent games, compiling a a 50% Barrel% (a reliable metric to measure power) in the last 7 days.

Notching a 102.2-mph average exit velocity over the past week, Brice Matthews has been in great form lately.

When it comes to his home run ability, Brice Matthews ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

In the past week’s worth of games, Brice Matthews’s swing has been well optimized for home runs, notching a 25% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.

Cam Smith is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

When assessing his BABIP skill, Cam Smith is projected as the 4th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

When it comes to his home run skill, Christian Walker ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Christian Walker is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today.

Christian Walker has been unlucky this year, putting up a .296 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .327 — a .031 disparity.

Christian Walker’s 17.1° launch angle (a reliable metric to assess a hitter’s ability to lift the ball for power) is among the highest in MLB: 80th percentile.

Ketel Marte projects as the 12th-best batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ketel Marte is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

The switch-hitting Ketel Marte will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Brandon Walter.

Ketel Marte will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

Ketel Marte’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 16.8% on the season to 27.8% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Eugenio Suarez as the majors’s 12th-best home run batter.

Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.

Eugenio Suarez will hold the platoon advantage against Brandon Walter today.

Extreme groundball batters like Eugenio Suarez tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Brandon Walter.

Eugenio Suarez will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Eugenio Suarez ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Naylor in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Josh Naylor is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.

Chase Field grades out as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Josh Naylor will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Josh Naylor ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Over the last 14 days, Josh Naylor has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 25.7° compared to his seasonal mark of 9.8°.

Jose Altuve’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jose Altuve is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Jose Altuve’s launch angle of late (31° over the past week) is considerably better than his 16.6° seasonal angle.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Jose Altuve ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Grading out in the 76th percentile, Jose Altuve has put up a .346 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

With a .471 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year, Jose Altuve is positioned in the 80th percentile.

Compared to his seasonal average of 11.7°, Mauricio Dubon has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 26.1° angle over the past 14 days.

Compared to last year, Mauricio Dubon has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 12.1% to 21.5% this season.

By putting up a 1.82 K/BB rate this year, Mauricio Dubon has displayed favorable plate discipline, placing in the 75th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 80th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will have an advantage in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will hold that advantage today.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Compared to last season, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 15.1% to 18.2% this season.

Batting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, James McCann will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and James McCann will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

James McCann has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last season’s 25.15 ft/sec to 26.47 ft/sec now (according to Statcast’s Sprint Speed metric).

Utilizing Statcast data, James McCann ranks in the 78th percentile for offensive ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .325.

James McCann grades out in the 86th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (19.3% rate since the start of last season).

Geraldo Perdomo will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Based on Statcast metrics, Geraldo Perdomo grades out in the 85th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .353.

Posting a 0.89 K/BB rate this year, Geraldo Perdomo has shown strong plate discipline, ranking in the 100th percentile.

Zack Short is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Arizona (#3-worst of the day).

Taylor Trammell is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

Taylor Trammell will have the handedness advantage over Brandon Pfaadt today.

Taylor Trammell has made big strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 15.4% seasonal rate to 28.6% over the past week.

As it relates to his home run talent, Taylor Trammell ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Taylor Trammell has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.5-mph to 98.2-mph over the past 7 days.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Corbin Carroll is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Corbin Carroll will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Corbin Carroll has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 7.3% rate last year to 15.5% this year.

Corbin Carroll has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.5-mph average to last season’s 89.2-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 97th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Yainer Diaz is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Yainer Diaz’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, rising from 14.4% on the season to 25% over the last 7 days.

Despite posting a .286 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Yainer Diaz has suffered from bad luck given the .043 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .329.

Negative Match Player Stats with Astros vs D-Backs Series Game 3

The #8 park in MLB for suppressing strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation among all parks, which tends to lead to more offense.

The 2nd-worst projected offense of the day in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the Houston Astros.

It may be best to expect negative regression for the Houston Astros offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-luckiest offense in the game this year.

The 3rd-deepest centerfield dimensions in MLB are found in Chase Field.

In MLB, the 10th-highest fences are at Chase Field.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Brandon Walter in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall pitching skills.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Walter to throw 84 pitches in this matchup (5th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Matthews in the 11th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Brice Matthews is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Brice Matthews encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Chase Field ranks as the #26 ballpark in the league for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

In today’s matchup, Brice Matthews is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.4% rate (76th percentile).

Batting from the same side that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Cam Smith encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Cam Smith has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

Playing on the road typically diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Cam Smith in today’s matchup.

Over the last two weeks, Cam Smith’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal mark of 93.2 mph to 79.2 mph.

Brandon Pfaadt will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Christian Walker today.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Christian Walker today.

Christian Walker’s BABIP skill is projected in the 14th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ketel Marte’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 96.8-mph average last year has dropped off to 94.4-mph.

Ketel Marte’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off recently; his 94.4-mph seasonal average has dropped to 88.5-mph over the past 14 days.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Ketel Marte has had positive variance on his side this year. His .406 rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .379.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (31.4) provides evidence that Eugenio Suarez has had positive variance on his side this year with his 52.9 actual HR/600.

Eugenio Suarez has been lucky this year, posting a .390 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .339 — a .051 difference.

Ranking in the 5th percentile, Eugenio Suarez has put up a .243 BABIP this year.

Brandon Walter will hold the platoon advantage over Josh Naylor in today’s game.

Josh Naylor pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 83rd percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Josh Naylor has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph dropping to 83.9-mph over the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 4th-worst venue in MLB for lefty home runs.

From last season to this one, Josh Naylor’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 93.7 mph to 89.1 mph.

Brandon Pfaadt will hold the platoon advantage over Jose Altuve in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jose Altuve today.

Jose Altuve has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 6.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 9th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

Mauricio Dubon is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

Batting from the same side that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Mauricio Dubon will have a tough challenge today.

Today, Mauricio Dubon is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.9% rate (93rd percentile).

Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Mauricio Dubon in today’s game.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 6.7% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past 14 days.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s launch angle lately (-6° over the past week) is quite a bit lower than his 15.8° seasonal mark.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has recorded a .295 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 25th percentile.

James McCann is penciled in 9th in the lineup in today’s game.

16% of the time that James McCann has started against a left-handed starter since the start of last season, he has been pinch hit for.

James McCann hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 16th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Geraldo Perdomo is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 17th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

The switch-hitting Geraldo Perdomo will bat from his bad side (0) today against Brandon Walter,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zack Short in the 1st percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Zack Short is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Hitting from the same side that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Zack Short encounters a tough challenge today.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Zack Short ranks in the 17th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Zack Short hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Trammell in the 10th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Taylor Trammell will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Batting from the same side that Brandon Walter throws from, Corbin Carroll will have a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Batting from the same side that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Yainer Diaz has a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Yainer Diaz hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.

Yainer Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

In the last week, Yainer Diaz’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.2% down to 0%.

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