Astros @ Athletics Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positives for the Houston Astros Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Darell Hernaiz in the 84th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Sutter Health Park ranks as the #8 field in the majors for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 83°.

Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Darell Hernaiz will have an advantage today.

The Houston Astros outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in action today.

Sutter Health Park has the 3rd-lowest fence height (on average) in the majors.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Darell Hernaiz will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Darell Hernaiz has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 92.3-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 85.1-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Sutter Health Park as the 5th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.

The Houston Astros have been the unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future,Nic Lentz profiles as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is scheduled to be umping today.

Projected catcher Shea Langeliers profiles as a weak pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Sutter Health Park profiles as the #6 stadium in MLB for walks, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Because groundball batters perform worse against groundball pitchers, J.T. Ginn (50.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 GB hitters in the opposing team’s projected lineup.

Home field advantage generally improves pitcher metrics in all categories, and J.T. Ginn will hold that advantage today.

Checking in at the 80th percentile, J.T. Ginn posted a 12.1% Swinging Strike% this year.

Grading out in the 79th percentile, J.T. Ginn has put up a 25.3% Strikeout% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zach Cole as the 19th-best batter in baseball as it relates to his BABIP ability.

The #8 park in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.

Because of J.T. Ginn’s large platoon split, Zach Cole will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Zach Cole’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 18.8% up to 18.8%.

As it relates to his home run skill, Zach Cole ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Over the last 14 days, Zach Cole has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .383.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Wilson as the 15th-best hitter in the majors when assessing his batting average ability.

Jacob Wilson is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Jacob Wilson will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Jacob Wilson will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colby Thomas in the 82nd percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Colby Thomas is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.

Colby Thomas will have the handedness advantage against Framber Valdez today.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Nick Kurtz ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Nick Kurtz is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.

Nick Kurtz projects as the 8th-best home run batter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Nick Kurtz will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 94th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

Christian Walker is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Christian Walker has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.8-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 90.6-mph figure.

Despite posting a .303 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Christian Walker has experienced some negative variance given the .027 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .330.

Isaac Paredes is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

Extreme groundball hitters like Isaac Paredes are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like J.T. Ginn.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isaac Paredes in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Isaac Paredes has made substantial strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 6.2% seasonal rate to 20% in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Jose Altuve is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.

Jose Altuve has made substantial gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 6.7% seasonal rate to 18.2% in the past week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

Carlos Correa is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

In notching a .280 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Carlos Correa is ranked in the 88th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Framber Valdez in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall pitching abilities.

Tallying 94.3 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Framber Valdez places in the 87th percentile.

Framber Valdez has a large reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 7 opposite-handed hitters today.

Framber Valdez is an extreme groundball pitcher (58.3% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Sutter Health Park — the #10 HR venue in the league — in this game.

The Athletics have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Lawrence Butler, Nick Kurtz, Colby Thomas).

Brent Rooker projects as the 14th-best batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Brent Rooker is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.

Brent Rooker will hold the platoon advantage over Framber Valdez in today’s game.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Jesus Sanchez ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jesus Sanchez is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Given J.T. Ginn’s large platoon split, Jesus Sanchez will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 85th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

When it comes to his home runs, Jake Meyers has suffered from bad luck this year. His 4.8 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been quite a bit lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 10.1.

Using Statcast metrics, Jake Meyers is in the 91st percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .285.

Checking in at the 99th percentile, Jake Meyers has posted a .358 BABIP this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shea Langeliers in the 96th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

Shea Langeliers is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.

Shea Langeliers will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shea Langeliers in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Negatives with the Athletics Game Today

Darell Hernaiz is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game.

Darell Hernaiz hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.5% — 100th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Darell Hernaiz’s 4.9° launch angle (an advanced stat to assess a batter’s ability to lift the ball for power) is among the lowest in Major League Baseball: 9th percentile.

Placing in the 22nd percentile, Darell Hernaiz sits with a .238 BABIP this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Darell Hernaiz in the 5th percentile when estimating his home run skill.

Based on Statcast metrics, Darell Hernaiz is in the 20th percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 8.300.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects J.T. Ginn in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall pitching talent.

Today’s version of the Astros projected lineup is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .323 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .348 overall projected rate.

Sutter Health Park has the 6th-deepest left field dimensions among all stadiums.

Because of his large platoon split, J.T. Ginn will be at an advantage going up against 7 hitters in the projected offense who share the same handedness in today’s game.

J.T. Ginn is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Sutter Health Park — the #10 HR venue in Major League Baseball — today.

J.T. Ginn has averaged 14.3 outs per outing this year, ranking in the 10th percentile.

J.T. Ginn has had some very good luck with his strikeouts this year, notching a 9.87 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.74 — a 1.13 K/9 difference.

Zach Cole is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.

Home runs are generally less common at fields with deep fences, and Sutter Health Park has the 9th-deepest among all stadiums.

Zach Cole will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Zach Cole has not been honed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits lately, hitting balls between -4° and 26° just 16.7% of the time over the last week.

Typically, batters like Jacob Wilson who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Framber Valdez.

Jacob Wilson’s average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 84.5-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 81.2-mph over the past 14 days.

Jacob Wilson’s launch angle lately (0.7° in the last two weeks) is quite a bit lower than his 8.7° seasonal figure.

Jacob Wilson has been cold in recent games, posting a 0% Barrel% (an advanced metric to study power) in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Wilson in the 3rd percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Colby Thomas pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.2% — 76th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 6th-deepest LF fences today.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.286) may lead us to conclude that Colby Thomas has experienced some positive variance this year with his .303 actual wOBA.

Framber Valdez will have the handedness advantage over Nick Kurtz today.

Nick Kurtz has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Nick Kurtz has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 18% seasonal rate has decreased to 12.5% over the past 7 days.

Nick Kurtz’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased of late, going from 46.3% on the season to 27.3% in the past 14 days.

Despite posting a .417 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Nick Kurtz has had positive variance on his side given the .068 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .349.

J.T. Ginn will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Christian Walker in today’s matchup… and it’s an even larger mismatch considering Ginn’s large platoon split.

Playing on the road typically diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Christian Walker in today’s game.

Christian Walker has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 11.9% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past 7 days.

Christian Walker’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined in recent games, falling from 14.6% on the season to 0% in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 14th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isaac Paredes in the 2nd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Given J.T. Ginn’s large platoon split, Isaac Paredes will be at a tremendous disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate today.

Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (47.1% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Isaac Paredes today.

Isaac Paredes’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined lately, decreasing from 44.8% on the season to 20% over the past 7 days.

In terms of his home runs, Isaac Paredes has had positive variance on his side this year. His 28.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 19.7.

J.T. Ginn will have the handedness advantage over Jose Altuve in today’s game… and it’s an even larger mismatch considering Ginn’s large platoon split.

Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 6th-deepest LF fences today.

Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jose Altuve in today’s game.

Jose Altuve has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .329 mark is inflated compared to his .295 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

J.T. Ginn will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Correa in today’s matchup… and it’s an even larger mismatch considering Ginn’s large platoon split.

Carlos Correa will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

Carlos Correa’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off recently; his 91.5-mph seasonal average has fallen to 84.3-mph over the past week.

Carlos Correa’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off in recent games, falling from 12% on the season to 3.2% in the past 14 days.

Considering that flyball hitters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Framber Valdez (58.3% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in the opposition’s projected lineup.

Playing on the road generally diminishes pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Framber Valdez in today’s matchup.

In today’s matchup, Brent Rooker is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 33.7% rate (80th percentile).

17% of the time that Jesus Sanchez has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been pulled from the game early.

Jesus Sanchez has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Typically, batters like Jesus Sanchez who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as J.T. Ginn.

Jesus Sanchez will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

Jake Meyers is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.

J.T. Ginn will hold the platoon advantage over Jake Meyers today… and it’s an even bigger mismatch considering Ginn’s large platoon split.

Jake Meyers hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Jake Meyers will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Jake Meyers has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.2% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last 14 days.

Shea Langeliers pulls many of his flyballs (35.8% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Shea Langeliers has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 35.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a fair amount higher than his 26.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Grading out in the 17th percentile, Shea Langeliers has put up a .264 BABIP this year.

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