Plenty of middling teams hold interesting long-shot value to win Super Bowl LIV, but nothing should excite bettors more than the Kansas City Chiefs at +750.
The Chiefs hold the second-best futures odds behind the New England Patriots (+700) — at MyBookie. They’re in that spot for good reason. Patrick Mahomes won NFL MVP in his first season as a starter, and the Chiefs return all their key playmakers.
Tyreek Hill? Back. Travis Kelce? Back. Damien Williams? Back.
Kansas City struggled on defense, but things seem headed in the right direction. The Chiefs recognized their strong pass rush didn’t lead to overall success, so they traded Dee Ford for draft capital and released Justin Houston.
Instead, Chiefs general manager Brett Veach focused on the secondary. Kansas City signed safety Tyrann Mathieu on March 14 and still has ample cap space to make another move. Veach also accumulated four draft picks in the first three rounds.
Another reason to forecast success for the Chiefs: The AFC West. The Oakland Raiders (+6600), despite the addition of Antonio Brown, aren’t close. The Denver Broncos (+6600) are relying on Joe Flacco for the foreseeable future. The Los Angeles Chargers (+1400) have a good roster, but injury concerns abound, and Philip Rivers isn’t getting younger.
A “passing of the torch” moment is coming at quarterback. Since 2003, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Ben Roethlisberger have won 15 of the last 16 AFC championships. Manning retired years ago. Roethlisberger lost his supporting cast this offseason. Brady, great as he is, is on the wrong side of 40.
After the season Mahomes just had, with an accomplished coach Andy Reid steering the ship, it seems like a matter of time before the Chiefs will plan a Super Bowl parade. At +750, that’s more than a fair price to bet that 2019-20 will be the year.
Best bet in the NFC: New Orleans Saints
If you want to pick another favorite, look no further than the New Orleans Saints (+800). The Saints have the second-best Super Bowl odds among NFC teams, trailing the Los Angeles Rams (+750). Their core of Sean Payton and Drew Brees appear to be going all in this season as Brees nears retirement. He turned 40 in January and the Saints identified his replacement in Teddy Bridgewater.
After a devastating exit from the playoffs last season, The Saints will be savvy and desperate — a good combination.
A longshot worth considering
The Indianapolis Colts (+1800) seem to be a great situation. Andrew Luck proved he was healthy last season and rekindled his connection with top receiver T.Y. Hilton. The Colts also drafted two Pro Bowlers in OL Quinton Nelson and LB Darius Leonard.
Indianapolis won nine of its last 10 regular-season games before running into the Chiefs in the playoffs. The Colts also play in a historically weak division, so the +1800 price tag is reasonable for a likely playoff squad.
Avoid these teams
The Patriots (+700) seem overvalued after losing their left tackle and best pass rusher while Brady turns 42 before the season.
The Rams (+750) probably shouldn’t be NFC favorites after losing a good chunk of their team to free agency. OL Rodger Saffold and S LaMarcus Joyner both signed lucrative deals elsewhere, and DT Ndamukong Suh could be next out the door. The Rams remain a contender, but there’s not much value in them at +750.
The Raiders’ price dropped dramatically after adding Antonio Brown in mid-March. But unless Oakland is able to fix a number of other issues with its rosterl, they shouldn’t be considered, even as a longshot.
The Cleveland Browns (+1400) got expensive after adding Odell Beckham Jr. While OBJ is a huge addition and the Browns have a bright future, they would have to win a Super Bowl with a rookie head coach, something that hasn’t been done since George Seifert and the 49ers in 1989-90.