NFL Week 4 is upon us, and I have some really strong spots circled to target. We’re going outside of the box this week, and playing a money-line parlay, along with a couple of team total unders!
Here’s what we’ve got:
Patriots/Chargers/Rams money-line parlay (-121)
All three of these teams are favored by at least a touchdown, and in the strongest spots to get wins on this NFL card. Tom Brady is 30-3 against the Bills, and the Patriots are 14-4-1 ATS in Buffalo during the Bill Belichick Era. This elite defense and explosive offense gets the job done against an over-hyped Bills team.
The Chargers are in the obvious spot here, as 14.5-point favorites in Miami. Not many numbers go into this one. This isn’t the spot the Dolphins get their first win, if that even winds up happening.
Things haven’t been pretty for the 3-0 Rams, but this is a terrific spot hosting the Bucs. The defensive line killed the Browns on the road, and should have an even easier time at home against a worse o-line and QB (Jameis Winston). Jared Goff’s splits are also much stronger at home.
Buffalo Bills Team Total Under 17.5 (-140)
The Bills are averaging 22 points per game, but against the Jets, Giants and Bengals. While the Jets managed a special-teams touchdown on a muffed punt and a pick-six of Jarrett Stidham in New England, the Pats defense has still allowed three total points in three games.
The Patriots are looking like the best defensive unit in football, and the Bills’ offense hasn’t been tested yet. Josh Allen is a risk taker, and mistake prone against good teams. The Bills have a good defense, and might be able to hold the Pats under 30, but I don’t see Buffalo getting past 17 here.
Miami Dolphins Team Total Under 14.5 (-115)
Let me get this straight — the Dolphins have scored 16 points in three games combined, and their team total’s set at 14.5 this week? The Chargers held the Lions to 13 points in their only road game of the season, and the Dolphins don’t present much of a challenge.
Miami constantly shoots itself in the foot, dropping passes or committing turnovers, even when it gets a rare good play from a QB. Until we see the Dolphins have a real NFL-quality game, I’ll continue to fade them in all aspects, particularly on the team total.