We’re seeing some of the largest spreads in NFL history this week, which brings up a lot of different betting angles to attack. I also think we’re seeing one potential Super Bowl contender getting extremely overvalued at home.
Follow along on Twitter for my full NFL card, but here are two of the strongest plays that jump out to me in Week 3.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Detroit Lions: DET +7 (-119)
The Eagles are extremely banged up, coming off a SNF loss at Atlanta. Already down a couple of key defensive players, we saw both WRs DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery depart early due to injuries. Jackson’s already been ruled ‘out,’ while Jeffery is considered ‘questionable’ at best, and probably closer to ‘doubtful.’
TE Zack Ertz and WR Nelson Agholor are fine players, but they won’t be able to carry the load against a really solid Detroit defense. Yes, the Lions fell apart at Arizona, with what looked like a blowout victory turning into a tie. But they looked spectacular at home in Week 2, limiting a talented Chargers offense to just 10 points.
When it comes down to it, this defense should be able to limit Philly’s offense enough to keep this one within a touchdown. The Eagles’ secondary has also had a really tough time against WR1, and Kenny Golladay should be able to feast in this matchup.
A lot of books have this line at 6.0 or 6.5, so I’d look for a place to buy the half-point on 6.5 and cover yourself with a touchdown.
I don’t think you’ll need it, as I think Detroit will have a chance to win outright, but I like protecting the bet with it.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins: MIA Team Total Under 12.5 (-103)
This total opened at 13.5, and immediately/correctly got bet down a full point. How can you back the Dolphins in any form after what we’ve seen this season? They’ve scored 10 total points in two games, and looked completely incapable against the Patriots — getting sacked seven times and tossing four interceptions.
The only “spark” you can consider in Miami’s offense is the move to start Josh Rosen. But still, Rosen went 7-for-18 once he entered the game in Week 2, and threw the pick to finally end the 43-0 bludgeoning.
The Patriots’ defense is better than the Cowboys’, but now the Dolphins are on the road. I don’t know how this offense gets more than 10 points here. You can also bet the Dolphins to score ‘under’ 1.5 touchdowns for around a -160 price. Laying the juice should prove well worth it.