Fade the Falcons? Edlow thinks so in his Week 7 NFL picks

NFL Week 7 picks-Julian Edlow-Atlanta Falcons-Dan Quinn-Dallas Cowboys-Philadelphia Eagles-Jason Garrett-

The Atlanta Falcons have limped to an atrocious 1-5 record both straight up and against the spread to date. They're three-point home underdogs to the Rams, who are trying to avoid a four-game losing streak. MajorWager's Julian Edlow thinks bettors should fade Dan Quinn's club in this spot.

Week 6 was a forgettable one in terms of the top article plays, but this Week 7 NFL card sets up nicely to get back on track. Here are a couple of spots I have circled to make plays:

Los Angeles Rams at Atlanta Falcons: LAR -3 (-105)

The Rams -3 were one of my losers last week, but I’m not afraid to go back to them in this spot. The 3-3 Rams have now dropped three in a row, and will travel to face a Falcons team that fell to 1-5 last week. Despite all the disappointment, Los Angeles is still 4-2 ATS this season, while Atlanta is an abysmal 1-5 ATS. 

Even including their win/cover against the Eagles in Week 2, the Falcons are being outscored by opponents by an average of 8.5 points per game. Atlanta’s defense has allowed a whopping 87 combined points to the Texans and Cardinals over the last two weeks.

Here’s a look at how far away the Falcons have been from covering in their last three games:

Week 4: Falcons lose to Titans by 14 as 3.5-point favorites (-17.5)
Week 5: Falcons lose to Texans by 21 as 4-point underdogs (-17)
Week 6: Falcons lose to Cardinals by one as 3-point favorites (-4)

That’s failing to cover by an average of 12.8 points per week. 

The Rams just got a shot in the arm with the acquisition of Jalen Ramsey, who can at least help contain Julio Jones — who Matt Ryan seems hesitant to throw to for some reason. The Falcons’ season is over, while the Rams are revitalized to make a run in the NFC West. This is the perfect spot for the Rams’ offense to explode. 

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: PHI +130 ML

I think the wrong team is favored in this game. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses, but Philly’s road loss at Minnesota was at least at the hands of a good team that’s well coached.

Dallas losing its third straight game against a winless Jets team is a completely different story. 

The Cowboys just don’t have their focus, and that’s because of Jason Garrett. It’s obvious his team doesn’t enjoy playing for him, and it has translated to the field during this losing streak.

Let’s remember the 3-0 Cowboys team that was getting hyped up had beaten the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins. Since then, Dallas has been favored in all three games, and not only failed to cover, but lost outright as well.

We’ve seen the Eagles play to their ceiling once this season, and it was a 34-27 win over the 5-1 Packers at Lambeau Field. The Cowboys can’t handle a game like that at this stage, and I see the streak of them losing outright as favorites extending to four weeks. 

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