I played Tampa Bay at +3.5 more than a week ago, but I’m still endorsing the Buccaneers at +3. In fact, if your money-line payout is +150 or better, I think you should get a small taste of that as well.
Tampa Bay has been an underdog five times this season, compiling a 4-1 against-the-spread record with three outright wins. Since losing a 27-24 decision to Kansas City, the Buccaneers have ripped off seven straight wins while going 5-2 ATS.
They’ve won four of those seven games by double-digit margins, including a 30-20 win at New Orleans on Jan. 17. In Tampa Bay’s last six games, it has scored 41, 47, 44, 31, 30 and 31 points. Tom Brady has a 19/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio during Tampa’s seven-game winning streak.
Kansas City is going to be without both of its starting offensive tackles, including Eric Fisher, the former No. 1 overall pick and two-time Pro-Bowl selection. That bodes well for the Bucs, who have constantly pressured Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers in their last two games.
Bankroll Strategy: I think you should have a sink-or-swim wager — mine is the Bucs +3.5 — that occupies about 75% of your bankroll (what you’re willing to risk/lose on Super Bowl LV). Then just go have some fun with props at small amounts and for me, I like to play the ones with no juice and long odds for a potentially big winner (odds to win MVP and to score the first TD are the ones I usually focus on).
My favorite prop bet is for Kansas City wide receiver Tyreek Hill’s longest reception to go ‘over’ 30.5 yards. I’ve seen this number as low as 27.5 and as high as 34.5. I like it ‘over’ up to 35 yards. In the regular-season meeting at Tampa Bay, Hill had 13 receptions for 269 yards and three TDs. He had TD catches of 44 and 75 yards in the first quarter alone.
Three other props for small amounts:
1-Mike Evans to score the first TD at 11/1 odds. As long as this number is at least 8/1, I like it. Evans had the first TD of the game at Green Bay and at New Orleans in Tampa’s last two outings. The Texas A&M product also had two TD catches vs. the Chiefs in the regular season. KC likes to defer on the coin toss, so I like the Bucs chances of getting the ball first, which obviously helps our cause.
2-Tampa Bay RB Leonard Fournette to win Super Bowl MVP honors at 30/1 odds:
In three postseason games, Fournette has 211 rushing yards and two TDs on 48 attempts. He also has 14 receptions for 102 yards and one TD. Brady likes to look to his running back on check downs when nobody is open deep. Fournette could easily cash in with TDs if he can get touches deep in the red zone.
3-Tampa Bay LB Devin White to win MVP at 40/1 odds:
We’re going with two former LSU Tigers here. White is one of the NFL’s premier LBs, a true rising star. If the 30-20 win at New Orleans had been the Super Bowl, White might’ve won MVP honors. He had a critical interception and 28-yard return to set up a short and crucial TD drive for his team, in addition to a fumble recovery. White had nine sacks in the regular season and is a playmaker. Let’s also note that a defensive player — safety Dexter Jackson (From? FSU via Quincy Shanks HS!) — took MVP honors when the Bucs beat the Raiders to win the Super Bowl in 2003.
Happy Super Sunday, folks, and good luck with your wagers!